Villanova vs. Oregon Prediction, Odds, Line, Pick, and Preview: November 27 | 2022-23 NCAAB Season
The Villanova Wildcats (2-4) and Oregon Ducks (2-4) will play in the Phil Knight Invitational final round on Sunday. Villanova has lost three straight, most recently falling to the Portland Pilots 83-71. Portland is having a great week, taking UNC to the final minute before knocking off Villanova. The Wildcats shot 33% from the field, while the Pilots shot 56%. Caleb Daniels led the way with 18 points and seven rebounds on 50% shooting. Leading scorer Eric Dixon struggled in the loss, going 2-for-10 from the field. Nova trailed by as many as 18 points in the loss.
Villanova vs. Oregon Betting Odds
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Oregon is also riding a three-game losing streak. They lost a nail bitter on Friday night to the Michigan State Spartans 74-40. Four-year starter Will Richardson went bonkers, scoring 28 points with five rebounds and eight assists, but it wasn't enough to overcome Sparty. Freshman Kel'el Ware continued to prove the hype was real, adding 17 points and nine rebounds in 33 minutes.
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
ShotQuality has this matchup's final score at under one possession. Oregon has a 1.05 adjOFF SQ, good for 85th in the country. Meanwhile, Villanova sits pretty with a 0.94 adjDEF SQ number. Oregon excels in rim & three rate, but being in the 34th percentile in shot-making is why their rim & three rate SQ PPP is so low. The Nova defense is well-rounded in all defensive key stats and should pose a problem for the Ducks.
Offensively, the Ducks would love to set up in the half-court. They are diverse in half-court sets but have been at their best from an SQ PPP standpoint with post-up and mid-range jump shots. The Wildcats have seen the third most post-up shots and have the 57th-best SQ PPP in that category.
The Villanova offense is in the 26th percentile in shot selection but the 92nd in shot-making. They do an outstanding job of getting to the charity stripe, but the Ducks have limited shooting fouls this season. The Cats have been terrible at finding open shooters, yet the Ducks haven't been able to defend the perimeter.
Like the Ducks, the Wildcats thrive with a half-court offense. Nova takes a bevy of catch & shoot threes while setting up scorers in the low post. As a result, they have a high SQ PPP number in both those categories. Meanwhile, the Ducks are poor at defending those shot types.
Villanova vs. Oregon Prediction
Both teams are reeling, yet program pedigree alone suggests they will get going at one point. However, the loser of this game is about to be on a four-game losing streak. The matchup gives an edge to the Villanova Wildcats.
Prediction: Villanova -2.5 (-110)
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