A pessimistic projection of how many medals India will win at the Paris 2024 Olympics
In the first article of our three-part series on medal predictions for the Paris 2024 Olympics, we took an optimistic stance to forecast the number of medals the Indian contingent might secure at the event.
With this positive perspective, we considered favourable outcomes in sports like boxing, archery, and wrestling. For events such as shooting and racquet sports, we assumed that Indian athletes would deliver their best performances as they had in the run-up to the Games.
According to our optimistic model, we predicted a total of 24 medals. So how many medals can India win in their worst-case scenario?
Pessimistic Medal Projection for India at the Paris 2024 Olympics
In this second article, we explore a pessimistic scenario for the Paris 2024 Olympics, assuming difficult draws for athletes and below-par performances in events like shooting and athletics.
Shooting, Weightlifting, Archery, and Athletics at Paris 2024 Olympics
Neeraj Chopra, the current Olympic champion in men's javelin and India's first gold medalist in track and field, heads to Paris with an adductor issue. This year, he has participated in only three events, accumulating just 16 competitive throws, as he has chosen to focus on his health rather than compete frequently.
Given these factors, retaining his gold medal seems unlikely, though a podium finish is still within reach.
Chopra will face stiff competition from Czechia's Jakub Vadlejch and Pakistan's Arshad Nadeem. Vadlejch, who secured silver in Tokyo, has been a consistent performer, recently winning at the European Athletics Championships. Nadeem, although less consistent, claimed silver at the World Championships and has surpassed the 90m mark, a feat Chopra has yet to achieve.
For the other 28 Indian athletes in various disciplines, winning medals seems unlikely. The absence of key athletes such as Murali Sreeshankar (long jump) due to injury and Abha Khatua (shot put) for undisclosed reasons weakens their prospects. Competing against dominant nations like Kenya, Jamaica, and the USA in athletics further complicates their chances.
Mirabai Chanu, who won silver in weightlifting at the Tokyo Olympics might not get a podium finish at Paris Olympics 2024. She has struggled with injuries and a lack of major competition.
She has only competed in three events since 2023 and has dealt with injuries to her wrist, shoulder, and hip. These setbacks could hinder her performance in Paris, making a podium finish doubtful.
In archery, India's chances of winning a medal at the Paris Olympics 2024 are slim. South Korea remains a formidable opponent, having dominated Olympic archery since 1988.
Their men's team, featuring Kim Woojin, Kim Je Deok, and Lee Wooseok, is strong despite a recent loss to India in Shanghai. The women's team, led by emerging star Lim Sihyeon, also poses a massive threat.
The Indian shooting team has struggled to secure Olympic medals in recent years, returning empty-handed from the last two Games. Sift Kaur Samra, the world record holder in the women's 50m rifle 3 positions and reigning Asian Games champion, is their best hope for a medal at Paris 2024 Olympics.
However, Indian shooters have historically struggled in the final rounds of the Olympics, which could weigh heavily on Sift, especially with high expectations following a record number of Olympic quotas.
The absence of experienced shooters like Rudrankksh Patil and Mairaj Ahmad Khan could impact team performance. Competing against China, who have been a force to reckon with in shooting will require exceptional performance from the Indian team, making a medal unlikely.
Boxing, Wrestling, Hockey, and Badminton at the Paris Olympics 2024
In boxing, Nikhat Zareen, a two-time world champion and India's most reliable boxer in this Olympic cycle, has lost only two bouts since 2022.
Making her debut at the Paris 2024 Olympics, her main rival for a medal in Paris will be Turkey's Buse Naz Cakiroglu, who has multiple World Championship medals and a silver from Tokyo 2020. Being unseeded, Zareen may face Cakiroglu early, risking an early exit.
Lovlina Borgohain, who won bronze in the women's 75kg at Tokyo, will compete in the 69kg category in Paris. She will face tough competitors like China's Li Qiang, the two-time Olympic champion.
With both Zareen and Borgohain having previously defeated their key rivals, one podium finish for Indian boxers is plausible at the Paris Olympics.
In wrestling, Vinesh Phogat, the first Indian woman wrestler to qualify for three Olympics, is a strong contender for a medal in the 50kg category. Despite limited competition in this weight class recently, Phogat remains India's best hope at the Paris 2024 Olympics.
However, the unseeded status means she will face tough opponents like Yui Susaki, Mariya Stadnik, Sarah Hildebrandt, and Dolgorjavyn Otgonjargal early on. A medal is possible, but gold seems out of reach.
The Indian men's hockey team, bronze medalists in Tokyo, face a challenging path to a medal at the Paris 2024 Olympics. To advance to the knockouts, they must win their first three group games against New Zealand, Argentina, and Ireland.
Their last two games, against Belgium and Australia, will be tough. Given their inconsistent form leading up to the Olympics, a medal seems unlikely.
The World No. 3 badminton doubles pair Satwiksairaj Rankireddy and Chirag Shetty is another major hope for India at the Paris 2024 Olympics. They started the year strong with a French Open title and runners-up finishes at the Malaysia Open and India Open, but their form has fluctuated since.
They exited early from the All England and Singapore Open and withdrew from the Indonesia Open title defense. Their primary challengers are China's top seeds, Liang Weikeng and Wang Chang, who have beaten them five times out of six. Satwik-Chirag's aim for gold, silver, or bronze is more realistic.
As for PV Sindhu, the two-time Olympic medalist, may not secure a third medal at the Paris 2024 Olympics. Despite a promising comeback, she has struggled to close out matches, as seen at the Malaysia Masters and Singapore Open. Many of her 2024 losses are due to questionable line calls and errors under pressure.
Sindhu's potential semifinal opponent at the Paris 2024 Olympics, Yufei, is in better form leading up to the Olympics. Their head-to-head record is tied at six wins each, but Yufei recently defeated Sindhu in three games at the French Open quarterfinals this year. Given Sindhu's inconsistent run, a medal in Paris seems challenging.
Total Medals for India at the Paris 2024 Olympics
Indian athletes have also qualified in other events, including equestrian, swimming tennis, and table tennis at Paris 2024 Olympics. However, our pessimistic calculation expects no medals in these events.
Thus India can expect to secure a total of 4 medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics. This pessimistic projection predicts one medal each in athletics, boxing, wrestling, and badminton.