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An optimistic projection of how many medals India will win at the Paris Olympics 2024

The Paris Olympics 2024 marks another crucial chapter in India's quest for global sports domination. Over the past few years, a new generation of Indian athletes has emerged, shining brightly in various continental and world-level tournaments.

These athletes are now looking to give their best at the upcoming mega event and break India’s tally of 7 medals at the Tokyo Olympics.

Predicting the exact number of medals any nation can win at the Olympics is a complex task, especially for individual sports where outcomes can be highly unpredictable.

Nonetheless, we can employ three different approaches to estimate India's medal tally for the Paris Olympics 2024:

  1. Optimistic Approach
  2. Pessimistic Approach
  3. Most Likely Approach

Optimistically how many medals can the Indian contingent win at the Paris Olympics 2024

In this article, we will focus on the optimistic projection for India's medal prospects at the Paris Olympics 2024. Under this approach, we will analyze whether the best performances of Indian athletes in sports like shooting and athletics could translate into medals at Paris 2024.


Optimistic Medal Projection for India in Shooting at Paris Olympics 2024

Shooting remains one of India's strongest hopes for multiple medals at the Paris Olympics 2024. India has 21 shooters qualified across 10 events for Paris 2024. India’s shooters have shown exceptional form recently, making the selection trials for the Paris Olympics 2024 the most competitive in history.

Talents like Manu Bhaker, Elavenil Valarivan, Ramita Jindal, Arjun Babuta, Aishwary Tomar, and Sarabjot Singh have consistently delivered world-class performances. Their stellar showing at last year’s Asian Games, where they secured seven gold medals, speaks for their potential.

Additionally, Russia's exclusion from the competition further boosts India’s chances. The Indian shooting contingent is expected to be strong contenders for 7-8 medals, particularly in rifle events.

Beyond individual events, India also has a strong chance in mixed pistol and rifle team events. Even if half of these opportunities are realized, India could secure eight medals in shooting at Paris 2024, promising a significant contribution to the overall medal tally.


Optimistic Medal Projection for India in Combat Sports at Paris Olympics 2024

India has qualified athletes in wrestling, boxing, and judo for the Paris Olympics 2024. In combat sports, India's hopes are primarily pinned on women athletes. In boxing, Nikhat Zareen is a strong medal contender, having lost only two bouts since 2022 and defeating every competitor in the 50kg category.

Although Lovlina Borgohain faces a tough draw, she has previously beaten her quarterfinal opponent, Li Qian, on home soil, making her a potential medalist as well.

In wrestling, the lower weight categories hold promise for India. Antim Panghal, the 4th seed in the 53kg division, has a favourable path to the medal rounds. Anshu Malik and Vinesh Phogat are also strong contenders, aiming to secure bronze medals after narrowly missing out previously.

Optimistically, India could secure 2 medals each in boxing and wrestling, contributing significantly to the overall tally.


Optimistic Medal Projection for India in Weightlifting, Archery, and Athletics at Paris Olympics 2024

Golden boy Neeraj Chopra remains a top contender in javelin, consistently hitting marks around 88m. Only two others, Jakub Vadlejch and Julian Weber, have reached this distance, though less consistently.

Along with his Olympic gold, Chopra holds titles from the World Athletics Championships, Asian Games, Commonwealth Games, Asian Championships, and Diamond League, thus optimistically giving him that edge to retain his gold.

Mirabai Chanu made history in Tokyo, winning India’s first Olympic weightlifting medal with a 205kg lift. As she gears up for Paris, Chanu is well-positioned to retain her silver medal.

The absence of North Korea's Ri-Song Gum, a world record holder, and China's one-athlete-per-nation rule, which saw Zhang Huihua fail to qualify, boosted Chanu’s chances. Her primary rival will be reigning Olympic champion Hou Zhihui, who recently lifted 217kg.

India has never clinched an Olympic medal in archery, but this could be the year they break the streak. The men’s recurve team, featuring Dhiraj Bommadevara, Tarundeep Rai, and Pravin Jadhav, is ranked just behind Korea and is a strong contender for the medal matches.

They even claimed a historic win over the reigning Olympic champions, Korea, in the Archery World Cup Stage final in Shanghai earlier this year.

Individually, both Dhiraj Bommadevara and Deepika Kumari are ranked 12th in the world, putting them in a favourable position to reach the medal rounds. With their current form, India could optimistically bring in about 3 medals in archery at the Paris Olympics.


Optimistic Medal Projection for India in Racquet Sports at Paris Olympics 2024

India has qualified athletes in badminton, tennis, and table tennis. The rise of Satwiksairaj Rankireddy and Chirag Shetty has been one of the most exciting developments in Indian sports over the last three years. Their impressive achievements have positioned them as top contenders for a medal in badminton at the Paris Olympics.

They’ve made history with their first-ever Thomas Cup win for India, a medal at the BWF World Championships, a Super 1000 title, and becoming the first Indian doubles pair to reach the world number one ranking. With such a stellar track record, a medal in Paris seems within reach, and gold is a strong possibility.

PV Sindhu, already a two-time Olympic medallist, aims to make history by winning a third medal in Paris, potentially becoming India's most successful individual Olympian.

Sindhu thrives in high-stakes tournaments, and despite a challenging 2024 season, her performance trajectory resembles her runs before the 2016 Rio and 2021 Tokyo Olympics, where she won medals. Her knack for delivering when it matters most makes her a formidable contender once again.

In tennis, now being very optimistic, veteran Rohan Bopanna is also a strong medal prospect for India at the Paris Olympics 2024. At 44, Bopanna has remained in the top 10 doubles rankings since last year, securing an Olympic quota for India.

Earlier this year, he fulfilled a career dream by winning his first Grand Slam doubles title at the Australian Open with Matt Ebden. With his vast experience and recent success, Bopanna, paired with Balaji, has a good chance of bringing home a medal.

India is yet to win a medal in table tennis at the quadrennial event and expectations will be high from Sreeja Akula. Being highly optimistic given her performance in the last two years, she has the most chances to bring in the medal for India in Table Tennis.

Sreeja Akula has made remarkable progress in 2024, establishing herself as a powerhouse in Indian table tennis. In April, she climbed to No. 38 in the world rankings, overtaking Manika Batra as India's top-ranked player.

Her year began with a significant victory at the WTT Feeder Corpus Christi in Texas, where she won her first WTT singles title. She followed this up with another triumph in March at the WTT Feeder Beirut II.

By June, Sreeja achieved another milestone by becoming the first Indian to win the WTT Contender Lagos, marking a significant breakthrough in her career.


Optimistic Medal Projection for India in Hockey and Remaining Sports at Paris Olympics 2024

Only men's hockey team has qualified for Paris 2024 and is expected to be a strong medal contender. In Tokyo, the men's hockey team, expected to podium, met expectations by securing bronze.

However, they faced several setbacks afterward. A disappointing World Cup led to head coach Graham Reid being replaced by Craig Fulton. Under Fulton's guidance, the team has reduced its attacking aggression, resulting in a stronger defence, a previous weakness under Reid.

Fulton guided India to gold at the 2022 Asian Games, showcasing their dominance over continental teams. This performance, along with their success at the Asian Championships, suggests they have a strong chance of improving their Olympic medal color in Paris.

Other sports where Indian athletes have qualified include equestrian, golf, rowing, swimming, and sailing. India's equestrian debut at the Olympics features Anush Agarwalla, who won bronze in individual dressage and gold in team dressage at the 2022 Asian Games. In the best-case scenario, Agarwalla could be a dark horse contender for a medal in Paris.

India's top golfer, Aditi Ashok, who secured silver at the 2023 Asian Games, narrowly missed out on bronze at the Tokyo Olympics. Currently playing the best golf of her career, Aditi recently achieved a career-high ranking of 39.

Her game has improved significantly, with an increase of 9-10 yards in her driving distance over the past couple of years. Thus, optimistically speaking Aditi remains a fair contender for a podium finish.


Total Medals for India at Paris Olympics 2024 from the Optimistic Approach

Taking into account the optimistic projections, India could secure eight medals in shooting, two in boxing, two in wrestling, one in athletics, three in each archery, and badminton, and one each in weightlifting, hockey, table tennis, equestrian and golf. This brings the total optimistic medal count for India to 24 at the Paris Olympics 2024.

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