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The most likely projection of how many medals India will win at the Paris 2024 Olympics

In the previous two articles in our series on medal projections for the Indian contingent at the Paris 2024 Olympics, we took an optimistic and a pessimistic approach to forecasting the number of medals that India could win at the mega-event. In the trilogy's third and final part, we will project the medal count using the most likely approach.

This method will likely provide the best estimate of how many medals India might achieve at the Paris 2024 Olympics. This approach considers the weighted average of the performances of the Olympic-bound Indian athletes.

By weighted average, we mean that the most recent performances of the athletes in the current Olympic cycle will be given more weight compared to older performances. These models (including the previous ones) are purely based on the statistics of a particular athlete over the current Olympic cycle.


Most likely medal projection for India in shooting, weightlifting, and athletics at the Paris 2024 Olympics

Neeraj Chopra remains India's brightest prospect for a gold medal at the Paris 2024 Olympics. Since his triumph in Tokyo, Chopra has only grown stronger, with his 11 best javelin throws all recorded post-Tokyo.

His personal best is tantalizingly close to the 90m mark, just 0.06m short. Although a minor adductor strain kept him out of some competitions leading up to the Olympics, his coach, Klaus Bartonietz, assures that he has made a full recovery.

This season, the world’s top javelin throwers have consistently hit the 87-89m range—a zone where Chopra has proven to excel. Even though he hasn't yet surpassed the 90m threshold, his consistent victories in this range underscore his elite status.

Despite participating in fewer events this year, his impressive 88.36m throw at the Doha Diamond League stands as one of the top performances of 2024.

Neeraj Chopra remains India's best bet for a gold medal in Paris Olympics, Image by Getty Image
Neeraj Chopra remains India's best bet for a gold medal in Paris Olympics, Image by Getty Image

India also has a strong chance of winning multiple medals in shooting. After disappointing performances in the 2016 and 2020 Olympics, where the team did not secure any medals, the Indian shooting contingent is entering Paris with high expectations.

A change in the quota system has allowed India to send its most in-form shooters to the Paris 2024 Olympics. Among them, Sift Kaur Simra is a standout, competing in the 50m air rifle three-position. She is a strong contender for a podium finish as the world record holder.

India could potentially win a medal on the first day of the Olympics in the 10m air rifle mixed team event. The pairs of Arjun Babuta/Ramita and Elavenil Valrivan/Sandeep Singh are strong contenders, with a high chance of securing at least a silver or bronze medal.

Additionally, Manu Bhaker, the only Indian shooter competing in three categories—10m and 50m women’s pistol, and the women’s 10m team event—will be aiming for a podium finish.

Mirabai Chanu, already an Indian sporting icon thanks to her silver medal in Tokyo and multiple World Championship medals, remains a top contender in the 49kg weightlifting category at the Paris 2024 Olympics despite recent injuries.

To compete for gold, she will face stiff competition from China’s Hou Zhihui, a consistent winner in this category. Thus if not gold, Mirabai Chanu can realistically hope to retain her silver.

Mirabai Chanu looks to retain her silver in Paris 2024 Image by Getty Images
Mirabai Chanu looks to retain her silver in Paris 2024 Image by Getty Images

Most likely medal projection for India in boxing, wrestling, hockey, and badminton at the Paris 2024 Olympics

India has two strong medal prospects in boxing at the Paris 2024 Olympics. Nikhat Zareen, the reigning world champion in the women's 50 kg category, has claimed gold in consecutive seasons and stands as a favorite to win the top prize in Paris.

Meanwhile, Tokyo Olympics bronze medalist Lovlina Borgohain may face a challenging draw, potentially meeting the number one seed in the quarterfinals. Nevertheless, she has the skills to reach the semifinals and secure at least another bronze.

Two-time World Champion Nikhat Zareen looks to make her mark in Olympic debut Image by Getty Images
Two-time World Champion Nikhat Zareen looks to make her mark in Olympic debut Image by Getty Images

In wrestling, Antim Panghal remains a fair bet for India at the Paris 2024 Olympics. As the reigning bronze medalist in the women's 53 kg category at both the Asian Games and the World Championships, she is expected to clinch at least a bronze medal for India. Vinesh Phogat, despite a difficult year, is determined to silence her critics and aims to return with a medal.

Another significant medal hope for India at the Paris 2024 Olympics lies with the men's doubles badminton pair of Satwiksairaj Rankireddy and Chirag Shetty. They are the current Commonwealth and Asian Games champions and have performed consistently well, securing bronze at both the Malaysia Open and the India Open. Their sights are set on a gold medal, with a silver being a strong possibility.

PV Sindhu, though not in her best form, remains a formidable competitor on the big stage. Her experience and ability to perform under pressure make her a strong contender for an Olympic medal, possibly her third, in Paris.

The Indian men's hockey team rekindled memories of their golden era with a bronze medal in Tokyo, but they will face a daunting challenge at the Paris 2024 Olympics. Placed in Pool B alongside formidable opponents like Australia, New Zealand, Ireland, Belgium, and Argentina, India finds itself in one of the toughest groups.

Given the team's current form, progressing from this pool will be exceptionally challenging. Realistically, their chances of securing a medal seem slim.


Total medals for India at the Paris 2024 Olympics from the most likely approach

Indian athletes in disciplines such as rowing, swimming, tennis, equestrian, and table tennis will strive to achieve their personal best at the Paris 2024 Olympics. While athletes like Rohan Bopanna and Manika Batra could deliver unexpected performances, expecting medals might be overly optimistic.

From a realistic perspective, we project India winning 3 medals in shooting, and 1 medal each in boxing, wrestling, athletics, weightlifting, and badminton. This projection suggests that India's total medal count at the Paris 2024 Olympics should be around 8.

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