6 players who could be ATP year-end No. 1, ft. Rafael Nadal, Alexander Zverev
The race for the ATP year-end World No. 1 is set for an exciting finish, with the likes of Rafael Nadal and Alexander Zverev in contention.
With current No. 1 Daniil Medvedev returning to the winner's circle in Los Cabos last week, he's set to stay in the top spot of the ATP rankings until the end of the US Open. However, things will get really interesting after the last Grand Slam of the year.
Currently, Medvedev (7875) leads closest challenger Alexander Zverev by 1115 points. Nadal (5620) trails Zverev by almost 1000 points but leads young gun Carlos Alcaraz (5035) by almost 600. Stefanos Tsitsipas (5000) and Novak Djokovic (4770) round out the top six.
With over 9000 points to play till the season-ending ATP Finals in Turin, the year-end No. 1 can theoritically be claimed by virtually any player outside the current top-6. Nevertheless, one of the players currently ranked in the top-6 stands a good chance of closing the season as the World No. 1 unless somebody outside the group embarks on an unlikely hot streak till the end of the season.
On that note, here's a look at the chances of the current top six ending the year as the world's top-ranked singles player:
#1 Daniil Medvedev
Daniil Medvedev has a significant lead over his closest challenger. However, the World No. 1 has a lot of points to defend between now and the US Open. In other words, he has everything to lose and very little to gain.
Medvedev, the reigning US Open champion, won the Canadian Open last year and made the semifinals in Cincinnati, both of which are Masters 1000 events. So, he'll defend 3360 points in just three tournaments. After the US Open last year, the Russian made the finals in Paris and the ATP Finals, winning 1600 ranking points.
Sealed with a kiss 💋
#ATC2022 | @DaniilMedwed https://t.co/NvPPTvjvR5
The 25-year-old will need a strong North American summer and a robust end to the season to keep the chasing pack at bay and close the year as World No. 1.
#2 Alexander Zverev
Alexander Zverev hasn't played since tearing three lingaments on his ankle during his Roland Garros semifinal defeat to eventual winner Rafael Nadal.
The German is not playing this week at the Canadian Open, a tournament he missed last year too. He's also doubtful for Cincinnati and the US Open. Zverev is the reigning Cincinnati champion and made the US Open semifinals last year. That means the German will drop 1720 points if he misses both tournaments.
After Flushing Meadows last year, Zverev won thr ATP 500 event in Vienna, reached the semifinals of the Paris Masters and won the ATP Finals, winning 2160 points.
@AlexZverev wins the first #NittoATPFinals in Turin after defeating Medvedev 6-4, 6-4.
THE KING IN TURIN 🏆 🇮🇹
🇩🇪 @AlexZverev wins the first #NittoATPFinals in Turin after defeating Medvedev 6-4, 6-4. https://t.co/CQpDPX0hWt
The World No. 2 will hope to make a strong comeback from injury and make up ground on Medvedev if the Russian slips up.
#3 Rafael Nadal
Rafael Nadal has the best chance of finishing as the year-end No. 1 among the current top six. That's because Nadal shut down his season last year after Washington, so he has everything to gain and no points to lose from now until the end of the season.
The reigning Australian Open and Roland Garros champion hasn't played since tearing his hamstring in his Wimbledon quarterfinal win over Taylor Fritz. Nadal is not playing at the Canadian Open this week after experiencing some pain in practice. His participation in Cincinnati and the US Open is also under speculation.
Victory belongs to the most tenacious 🏆
#RolandGarros https://t.co/HveldTMGf8
Nadal will fancy his chances of a strong finish to the year and could break into the top two next month if he fares well on the North American hardcourts.
#4 Carlos Alcaraz
Carlos Alcaraz has had an impressive season, breaking into the top four of the ATP rankings. He was ranked outside the top 50 at this time last year.
He's defending less than 800 points between now and the end of the season, with 360 of them at the US Open, where he reached his first Major quarterfinal. If the teenager embarks on a strong run on North American hardcourts and gets beyond the last eight at Flushing Meadows, he could break into the top three after the US Open.
This kid is INCREDIBLE.
Carlos Alcaraz rallies from two sets down to reach the #USOpen quarterfinals. https://t.co/lHF1VyUdbd
Moreover, Alcaraz stands to benefit from Nadal and Zverev's potential absence at Montreal this week. However, the No. 1 ranking appears unlikely this year for the talented teenager.
#5 Stefanos Tsitsipas
Stefanos Tsitsipas has been a solid performer at the Majors, but he's yet to make his breakthrough.
The World No. 5 is defending 1045 points between now and the end of the season. Tsitsipas made the semifinals of the Canadian Open and Cincinnati last year - so that's 720 points in these two tournaments alone. He could re-enter the top four at the US Open, where he lost to Alcaraz last year in the third round.
18-y.o. Carlos Alcaraz scores one of biggest upsets in recent men's tennis memory, beating #3 Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-3, 4-6, 7-6(2), 0-6, 7-6(5).
Ashe loved the kid.
Strong backhand, strong dropshot, strong nerves. Carlos "The Rock" Alcaraz indeed (Thanks, @danielmjude).
#USOpen
Tsitsipas, though, will possibly need to win two of these three tournaments to get himself into serious contention for the year-end World No. 1. .
#6 Novak Djokovic
Novak Djokovic finds himself at a rather lowly No. 6 in the ATP rankings. That's because he earned no ranking points for defending his Wimbledon title. This year's Championships were stripped of ranking points after Wimbledon barred Russian and Belarusian players following Russia's Ukraine invasion.
That's not all. Djokovic's non-vaccination against COVID-19 means he currently cannot play on North American hardcourt events. He made the US Open final last year, where he was beaten by Medvedev in the final, denying the Serb a calendar year Grand Slam.
Unless the entry rules for unvaccinated foreign arrivals to the US changes, Djokovic is set to drop 1200 points for not playing at Flushing Meadows this year.
Daniil Medvedev stuns Novak Djokovic in straight sets to win the #USOpen https://t.co/Ksup0ClAEI
In that case, he'll drop to No. 8 in the rankings, which could change a bit depending on how the others above him fare during this stretch. Beyond Flushing Meadows last year, Djokovic won the Paris Masters and reached the semifinals of the ATP Finals, meaning he'll defend 1400 points.
The Serb, who is 10th in the race to Turin, is out of the top eight in the race. However, having won a Major this year, his spot in Turin is confirmed unless he drops out of the top 20, which is unlikely.
However, to cut a long story short, Djokovic will need an unlikely sequence of events and results to end the year as the world's top-ranked player.