A 24-hour schedule gap at US Open and Aryna Sabalenka breathing down her neck: Is the clock finally ticking on Iga Swiatek's time as World No. 1?
Come Monday (August 28), live ranking numbers would spring onto the World No. 1 and reigning US Open champion Iga Swiatek an 11-point deficit against Aryna Sabalenka — who currently sits at No. 2 in the ladder.
Swiatek has been the top-ranked player since April last year and while she has come close to losing the spot on a couple of occasions, luck sided with her, so far that is. But is the magic running out?
Given her top ranking, Swiatek comes into the US Open as the top seed and achors the top half. Sabalenka, by virtue of being the second seed, has landed all the way across at the bottom.
But as luck would have it this time, it is the former lot that opens plays at this year's tournament on Monday — essentially meaning that all matches from the top half will be played 24 hours ahead of their counterparts in the bottom.
As it stands now, Swiatek has the World No. 1 ranking on her racquet. If she walks away with the trophy in New York, she does not drop any of the 2,000 points that she is defending and stays at the top. But that is a long road. Short-term, Swiatek just needs to go one round further than Sabalenka.
And that is where the unfortunate scheduling kicks in. Playing first, all the pressure will be on Swiatek's shoulders. Given that she starts the tournament with a slight defecit, the Pole has to go farther than Sabalenka to reclaim her advantage.
Because she plays first in view of the schedule, at any stage of the tournament, if both players at still in the reckoning, Swiatek has to win the match to stay World No. 1.
A break down of what could happen at the US Open for Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka
Take for instance a scenario where both Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka are alive in the tournament after winning their respective first-round matches.
If Swiatek was to lose her second-round match set to be played on Wednesday, she would end up dropping 1,930 points from her 9,955 to come down to 8,025. If that were to happen, Sabalenka would automatically become the World No. 1 without even having to take court.
That's because the Belarusian would only be defending only 650 points. Even if she was to follow Swiatek out of the US Open on Thursday, her points tally, which is currently at 8,946, would still read 8,036 — handing her the aforementioned 11-point cushion.
To simplify things again, Swiatek needs to outdo Sabalenka's showing. The Belarusian, meanwhile, ascends to World No. 1 position by just matching her opponent's result.
You first...
Now with the scenarios out in the clear, it begs the question: How big of a disadvantage is having to play first?
Well, for Iga Swiatek in this case, the pressure will be real. Aryna Sabalenka will have no say in the World No. 1 ranking as long as the Pole keeps winning so she can go about her business without worrying about Swiatek's results.
But with every match that Sabalenka wins, the pressure shifts onto Swiatek to step up and do one better in her next encounter.
And with the match-ups getting harder with each passing round, the added pressure of the Belarusian breathing down her neck may just begin to take a toll on the defending champion.
At Flushing Meadows, Swiatek opens her campaign against Sweden's Rebecca Peterson, while Sabalenka takes on Belgium's Maryna Zanevska in her opener.