A comprehensive guide to the Australian Open final
Tennis today is perhaps at a place where most sports desire to be – when the sport is more of a lyrical narrative than a set of events awkwardly strung together. The characters themselves are as intriguing as the plot; some hated, some loved, but each one closely followed, for each one has a story to tell. A legend in his twilight years fighting off youngsters, resolute to prove he still belongs amongst the best; two younger heroes apparently operating at a level unreachable to most others touching the very limits of possibility; and even a famed fighter taking a mysterious season off citing injury, the details of which still remain largely cloudy. This is a storyteller’s dream come true. It should perhaps come as little surprise then that Andre Agassi recently said “I think we’re living in what history will say is the golden age of tennis.”
In a day from now, we’ll witness another chapter being added to this narrative as No.3 Andy Murray takes on the defending champion Novak Djokovic in an attempt to carve a place for himself in the history books. I would be lying of course, if I said we did not see this coming. For the level of tennis that both these players are playing, they had pretty straight forward draws up to the semi-finals and after contrasting semi-final wins (Djokovic steam-rolled David Ferrer in less than one and a half hours, while Andy Murray had to slog it out for four hours to beat Federer in a five-setter), we have the two men that most people picked before the tournament to be there (the story of men’s tennis for the last couple of years really). As predictable as it was, this final still promises to be a ripper, for we will see on exhibition two extraordinary players with almost other-worldly skills, take on each other in what almost surely will be a brilliant display of tennis and here’s everything that you need to know about the game…
What’s at stake?
Novak Djokovic
A victory here would make him the first man in the Open era to win the title three consecutive times. It would also be his 4th overall, tying him with Federer and Andre Agassi for most Australian Open titles. More importantly though, a win will reassert his claim as the world’s best tennis player and end the grand slam drought that has lasted for exactly a year now.
Andy Murray
He will, of course, be looking to win a second consecutive grand slam and a victory will also cement the dominance that he has at the majors for now (3rd consecutive grand slam final appearance). His progress at the Australian Open was halted by Djokovic twice before in 2011 and 2012 and revenge could possibly be on his mind. But, what perhaps Murray will most look forward is the shot at No.2 position that this victory will bring along.
Head to head
Novak Djokovic leads 10-7. 14 of these games have been played on hard court and Djokovic leads 8-6 in them. But considering Andy Murray has been a completely different player since last year, I doubt if Djokovic will be paying any heed to these numbers. Djokovic has also won 2 of their last 3 meetings but the last time they met in a best of 5 event, Murray beat Djokovic in 5 sets (2012 USO finals). Interestingly, Murray also has a 4-3 edge in tournament finals. Advantage Djokovic.
Aces
Andy Murray has served 71 aces on his way to the final while Djokovic has served 46. Andy Murray was able to find aces in some critical points of his match against Federer and any player would be wary of that. Djokovic certainly knows the importance of aces in big matches, having been at the receiving end more than a couple of times himself, and will look to use all his returning skills to not let this statistic hurt him. Advantage Murray.
Double faults
Andy Murray has 2 double faults for the entire tournament. As trivial as that may sound, that’s an impressive statistic to have and is an indication of how solid his serving has been. Djokovic, on the other hand, has made 10, 5 of them in the 5 setter against Wawrinka. Though he will certainly not be losing sleep over this, he will not want to give away free points to Murray tomorrow. Advantage Murray.
Service points
Djokovic won 80% of his first serve points and Murray 75.8%. While there is little to separate the two here, Murray will be really concerned about his second serve. Djokovic has the tournament’s best figures of 66% 2nd serve points won while Murray has only won 51% of his. The second serve looked particularly weak at times in his semifinals match against Federer and will be a major chink in his armor when he goes against Djokovic. Advantage Djokovic.
Returning points
These two players have been the best returners in the game for a while now and expectantly find themselves at the top of both the first serve and second serve returning points won charts for the tournament. Djokovic leads with 148 first serve receiving points won while Murray won 126 of them. As for second serve returns, Djokovic is again slightly ahead with 142 against Murray’s 138. Advantage Djokovic.
Break points
Murray had 5 straight set victories until he reached the semi finals (heck, he didn’t even face a tie-breaker until the semis) and that of course means he created and won a lot of break points – in fact, more than any other player in the tournament with 41 break points won, while Djokovic won 33. Many people argue this is the most important statistic in a tennis match and it could well be the deciding factor tomorrow. Advantage Murray.
Challenges
This is increasingly turning about to be a useful skill to have, the ability to challenge calls, and going into the final, Djokovic has a 36.36% success rate against Murray’s 26.92%. Surprisingly enough, Federer has had better luck with the challenges than both of them with a 43.75% success rate! Advantage Djokovic.
Forehand
Both these players have very similar quality of ground strokes, making it practically impossible to rate one over the other. Murray’s forehand, while significantly improved from a year ago, still looked vulnerable at times in his semi-final match and is certainly the least natural looking of all his shots. Over a five set encounter, you might want to hand the advantage to Djokovic.
Backhand
This is the preferred side for both the players and they certainly have the best backhands in the business. Backhand to backhand encounters is certainly something to look forward to in the finals for the sheer quality of it. There is nothing between them really, but considering the little more variation that Murray can produce with his backhand, you just might want to say advantage Murray.
Other factors
The crowd most probably will be evenly split, and shouldn’t be a factor for both these players. Windy conditions will work in favor of Murray as we saw from the US Open finals last year. Streakers could be equally distractive for both.