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Acapulco 2023: Matteo Berrettini vs Holger Rune preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick | Mexican Open

Match Details

Fixture: (4) Matteo Berrettini vs Holger Rune

Tournament: Mexican Open 2023

Round: Quarterfinal

Venue: Acapulco, Mexico

Category: ATP 500

Surface: Outdoor Hardcourt

Prize money: $2,013,940.

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Amazon Prime Video


Matteo Berrettini vs Holger Rune preview

The quarterfinal round of the 2023 Mexican Open will have the big-hitting Matteo Berrettini take on the crafty Holger Rune in an exciting match-up on Thursday.

Rune, who is the fourth seed at this year's tournament, came into the tournament after a couple of disappointing outings in Rotterdam and Montpellier. The Dane suffered an early exit at the former, while losing in the semifinals of the latter — where he was the top seed.

At Acapulco so far, Rune has posted tenacious wins over Ben Shelton and Nuno Borges, and will look to carry the winning momentum deeper into the tournament.

Berrettini is playing in his first tournament since the 2023 Australian Open.
Berrettini is playing in his first tournament since the 2023 Australian Open.

Berrettini, meanwhile, has also underperformed in the few matches that he has played in the new season. Barring a couple of inspired wins over Casper Ruud and Hubert Hurkacz at the United Cup, he had very little to show for ahead of the tournament.

The Italian has, however, had a breezy path leading up to the quarterfinals here in Acapulco. He has only dropped seven games in his two matches against Alex Molcan and Elias Ymer and could prove to be a tricky customer for the fourth seed on Thursday.


Matteo Berrettini vs Holger Rune head-to-head

Berrettini leads Rune in their current head-to-head with a 1-0 margin, having beaten his opponent at last year's BNP Paribas Open (Indian Wells) in three sets.


Matteo Berrettini vs Holger Rune odds

PlayerMoneylineHandicap BetsTotal Games
Matteo Berrettini+100+0.5 (-115)22.5 (-135)
Holger Rune-125-0.5 (-120)22.5 (-105)

(Odds sourced from BetMGM)


Matteo Berrettini vs Holger Rune prediction

Rune will be favorite to come out on top in the encounter.
Rune will be favorite to come out on top in the encounter.

Having played each other in similar court conditions at Indian Wells last year, both Matteo Berrettini and Holger Rune will have a slight idea of what to expect heading into Thursday's clash.

Both men possess big weapons in the form of their serve and will bank on it to win them a fair few easy points. Berrettini has been especially explosive in that department, dropping just one point behind serve in his opener and following it up with another steady showing against Ymer.

That said, the dogged Rune presents a whole different challenge to the powerful Italian. Rune's footspeed and ability to hang around in rallies has troubled even the best in the recent past. Add the relative lack of match practice for Berrettini into the equation and Rune begins to come across as the favorite to reach the semifinals.

Prediction: Rune to win in three sets

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