Acapulco 2025: Denis Shapovalov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick | Mexican Open
Match Details
Fixture: (9) Denis Shapovalov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Date: February 28, 2025
Tournament: Mexican Open 2025
Round: Semifinal
Venue: Arena GNP Seguros, Acapulco, Mexico
Category: ATP 500
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $2,763,440
Live Telecast: US - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN+
Denis Shapovalov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina preview
Ninth seed Denis Shapovalov will take on Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the semifinals of the Mexican Open in Acapulco. Whoever wins will face either Brandon Nakashima or eighth seed Tomas Machac in the final.
Shapovalov has had an impressive start to the 2025 season, winning ten out of 13 matches so far, winning his maiden ATP 500 title at the Dallas Open. The Canadian started his run in Acapulco with a 7-5, 6-2 win over Nishesh Basavareddy and followed it up with a 6-4, 6-3 triumph over Alex Michelsen to set up a quarterfinal clash against Marcos Giron.
Here, Shapovalov found himself a set down but he bounced back to take the second set 6-3 and force the match into a decider. The 25-year-old broke twice early in the final set and this was enough to see him fetch a 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 win and a place in the semifinals of the Mexican Open.
Fokina has won 12 out of 17 matches so far this season, notably reaching the final of the Delray Beach Open. The Spaniard started his run in Acapulco with a hard-fought 1-6, 7-6(6), 6-2 win over Mattia Bellucci before grinding out a 6-3, 6-7(6), 6-3 victory over Frances Tiafoe to reach the quarterfinals.
Here, Davidovich Fokina faced Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez and registered his first straight-sets win. The Spaniard put on a dominant display to triumph 6-2, 6-2 and book his place in the semifinals of the Mexican Open.
Denis Shapovalov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina head-to-head
The only prior meeting between the two came in the second round of the 2022 BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, with Shapovalov winning 4-6, 6-4, 6-2.
Denis Shapovalov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina odds
All odds sourced from BETMGM.
Denis Shapovalov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina prediction
Given the current forms of both players, we could have a thrilling encounter on our hands, just like their last encounter in 2022.
Shapovalov's first-serve numbers so far in Acapulco have not been particularly impressive as he won only 74 out of 111 points on it, serving 12 aces. However, the Canadian has also served 15 double faults and cannot afford to have too many of those.
Shapovalov has an impressive serve and his one-hand backhand has been a crucial weapon for him. The Canadian loves to attack and will look to dictate points and keep Davidovich Fokina on the back foot from the start.
The Spaniard has had considerably better first-serve numbers than Shapovalov so far in Acapulco, having won 114 out of 151 points with 16 aces to his name. Like his Canadian counterpart, Davidovich Fokina also has an aggressive style and hits his shots with a lot of power. The Spaniard's incredible pace on court will come in handy especially when Shapovalov is well on the attack.
Composure could be an important factor in determining who can come out on top in this fixture and given his slightly better run of form at present, there is a fair chance of Shapovalov winning and reaching another ATP 500 final. That said, it won't be a surprise if Davidovich Fokina comes out on top.
Pick: Shapovalov to win in three sets.