ATP Finals 2021: Men's singles group analysis, preview & prediction
Turin is all set to play host to the top eight men's singles players of the 2021 season, who will be competing for the Nitto ATP Finals crown. The season-ending tournament is scheduled to be played at the Pala Alpitour Arena between 14 to 21 November.
The ATP Finals will see participation from four former champions - Daniil Medvedev, Alexander Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas and five-time winner Novak Djokovic. Also in the mix are Andrey Rublev and Matteo Berrettini, as well as debutants Casper Ruud and Hubert Hurkacz.
It's official.
The groups are set. #NittoATPFinals https://t.co/mXPvBzTkEU
The draw for the 2021 edition was released earlier today, with players being divided into two groups - Green Group and Red Group. With round-robin action set to get underway on Monday, here's a look at the prospects of the players in the fray.
Green Group - Novak Djokovic eyes a record-equalling sixth title
Novak Djokovic is one of the most successful players in the tournament's history, but the World No. 1 hasn't tasted success here since 2015.
Djokovic, who lost in the semifinals at last year's edition, finds himself in a commanding position to make the knockouts once again this year. He has a dominant 7-2 record overall against the three players in his group - Stefanos Tsitsipas, Andrey Rublev and Casper Ruud.
Six of Djokovic's seven wins - and both losses - have come against Tsitsipas. Naturally, the Greek is likely to offer the biggest test for the top seed.
The two men have already played twice this season, with Djokovic emerging as the winner on both occasions.
The Serb hasn't played his best tennis in the last few editions, but with a change of venue this year, he will be hopeful of a reversal of fortunes. Djokovic did look determined during his run to the title in Paris, and will enter the tournament hungry for more success.
The group will also offer a first-time matchup for Novak Djokovic, as he will take on Andrey Rublev. But given the Russian's run of poor results in the lead-up, Tsitsipas remains the frontrunner to challenge the Serb.
Tsitsipas himself holds a positive record against Rublev (4-3). One of those wins came in the 2020 edition of the ATP Finals, which should give the Greek plenty of confidence.
Rublev does possess a powerful baseline-oriented game that is tailor-made for indoor hardcourts, but he will need to find his stride quickly. The only player the Russian holds a positive win-loss record (4-0) against is debutant Casper Ruud.
The Norwegian, who has had a breakthrough season in 2021, recently described Rublev as one of his toughest opponents on the tour. But even he will be fancying a first win against the out-of-sort Russian.
The key to Ruud's chances of qualifying for the knockouts, however, will be his contest against Tsitsipas.
Ruud, who employs a topspin-heavy game that is better suited for clay, did beat the Greek on the red dirt at Madrid this year. Tsitsipas, however, hit back with a dominant 6-1, 6-4 win in Toronto, and will enter this matchup as the heavy favorite.
Predicted semifinalists: Novak Djokovic and Stefanos Tsitsipas
Red Group - Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev seek a second season-ending crown
Daniil Medevedev comes into the 2021 edition as not only the defending champion, but also the only player who has lifted a Grand Slam trophy this season apart from Novak Djokovic.
With a total of 156 wins on hardcourts since 2018, Medvedev is the most successful player on the surface in this time period. That, in addition to the title at the most recent hardcourt Slam, will make the Russian a firm favorite in his group.
But Medvedev's head-to-head against the players in his group - Alexander Zverev, Matteo Berrettini and Hubert Hurkacz - tells a different story. Although he leads Berrettini 2-0, the Russian is in a deadlock when it comes to his record against Zverev (5-5) and Hurkacz (1-1).
Fortunately for Medvedev, he has beaten Zverev in both their matches this season. In fact, the last time the German was able to get the better of his opponent was way back at the 2019 ATP Finals.
Medvedev's record against Hurkacz is more interesting, as both of their meetings have come this season. The Pole won their first encounter at Wimbledon, but Medvedev managed to pull level in Toronto.
Both of the matches were keenly-contested affairs, so the round-robin stage will likely offer another exciting installment of this budding rivalry.
Hurkacz has a close head-to-head against the other two players in the group as well. He has an identical 0-1 record against both Zverev and Berrettini in 2021, although he has beaten the Italian once before (2019). Moreover, the Pole possesses the sort of powerful game needed to spring an upset result or two.
For Zverev in particular, the match against Hurkacz could prove to be significant. A firm contender for the title, the German will be looking for a top-place finish in his group to ensure a favorable semifinal matchup.
Zverev possesses a comfortable 3-1 lead over Berrettini, and will be banking on a win in that particular contest. A win over Hurkacz would then set him up well in the larger scheme of things.
The German's dominant serving has been a highlight during some of his biggest runs this season - including the Olympics - but he has been just as impressive from the baseline. If he can find his rhythm early, Zverev could be the one to watch out for amongst the four names in the Red Group.
Predicted semifinalists: Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev
Semifinal predictions
Alexander Zverev (2nd in Red Group) def. Novak Djokovic (1st in Green Group)
Daniil Medvedev (1st in Red Group) def. Stefanos Tsitsipas (2nd in Green Group)
Prediction for the final
Daniil Medvedev def. Alexander Zverev