ATP Finals 2024: Casper Ruud vs Andrey Rublev preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick
Match Details
Fixture: (6) Casper Ruud vs (8) Andrey Rublev
Date: November 15, 2024
Tournament: ATP Finals 2024
Round: Group Stage
Venue: Inalpi Arena, Turin, Italy
Category: Year-end championships
Surface: Hard (Indoor)
Prize Money: $15,250,000
Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN
Casper Ruud vs Andrey Rublev preview
Casper Ruud and Andrey Rublev will lock horns in the final match of the group stage at the ATP Finals 2024.
Ruud arrived at the ATP Finals on a four-match losing streak, and having lost eight of his last nine matches. When he was slated to take on Carlos Alcaraz in his first match here, many had written him off. However, he beat the Spaniard 6-1, 7-5 to secure his first career win over him on his fifth attempt.
Ruud was up against World No. 2 Alexander Zverev in his next group tie. The opening set went down to the wire, with the latter gaining the upper hand in the ensuing tie-break. The German needed only one break of serve in the second set to wrap up the match and inflict a 7-6 (3), 6-3 defeat on the Norwegian.
Having lost his opener against Zverev, Rublev found himself in a tough spot heading into his match against Alcaraz. The Spaniard swept the last four games of the first set to take a one-set lead in the match.
Neither player got a whiff of a break point in the second set, which led to a tie-break. Rublev was the first to reach set point but couldn't close out the set. Alcaraz had a match point after that, and he fumbled his chance as well. The Russian let go of another set point, which cost him the match. The Spaniard got the job done on his second match point for a 6-3, 7-6 (8) win.
Casper Ruud vs Andrey Rublev head-to-head
Rublev leads Ruud 5-2 in the head-to-head. The Russian won their previous meeting at last year's Swedish Open in straight sets.
Casper Ruud vs Andrey Rublev odds
(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)
Casper Ruud vs Andrey Rublev prediction
The only possible outcome for Rublev to make the last four is to beat Ruud in straight sets, and for Zverev to win in two sets as well. He would then need a favorable record against Alcaraz and the Norwegian with respect to the percentage of games won to squeeze through this group.
Ruud has more of a wiggle room, and there are a couple of scenarios where he advances to the semifinals even with a loss. While he has a losing record against Rublev, he has won both of his matches in this rivalry at the ATP Finals.
Rublev has a 4-11 record at the year-end championships. Additionally, he is on a six-match losing streak at the ATP Finals, dating back to his loss to Ruud in the semifinals here back in 2022, the only time he made it out of the group stage as well. Given the Russian's rather poor record here, the Norwegian will be expected to come out on top in this encounter.
Pick: Casper Ruud to win in straight sets.