ATP Finals: Taylor Fritz, Daniil Medvedev & Jannik Sinner's SF qualification scenarios after Alex de Minaur's chances suffer massive blow
The 2024 ATP Finals are in full swing, with the Top 8 players from the 2024 season giving their best to clinch the year-ending Championships. The Ilie Nastate Group, consisting of Jannik Sinner, Daniil Medvedev, Taylor Fritz, and Alex de Minaur, has only one set of round-robin matches left.
Jannik Sinner is the best-positioned player to qualify for the semifinals after securing wins over Alex de Minaur and Taylor Fritz. If the World No. 1 wins his final match against Medvedev, then he will qualify as the winner of the group. Even if he loses he still has chances of qualification.
The only way Sinner might miss SF qualification is if he loses to Daniil Medvedev in straight sets, and Taylor Fritz beats De Minaur in straight sets. This would bring the percentage of games won by the trio and might see Sinner get eliminated if he suffers a crushing defeat to the Russian in their 15th encounter.
Medvedev started with a 4-6, 3-6 loss against Fritz, but quickly regrouped to produce a dominant result, winning 6-2, 6-4 against Alex de Minaur. The Russian will be facing Jannik Sinner in his last group league match. A victory for the Russian would guarantee a Top 4 spot if Fritz wins his last match against De Minaur.
Even if the World No. 4 wins in three sets, he will require the Aussie to take at least one set off of the American player. A loss for Medvedev in the final match would all but ensure his elimination.
Taylor Fritz won his first match against Medvedev but succumbed to Sinner in the next. For the American to smoothly qualify, he needs to defeat De Minaur in straight sets. Even if he drops a set, he would require Medvedev to drop a set or lose his match against Sinner. If the Italian wins, all Fritz needs is a straightforward victory to advance.
Having lost both of his matches in straight sets so far, Alex de Minaur has very little chance of advancing to the semifinals. The only way the Australian might find a way to advance is if he wins against Fritz in straight sets, and Medvedev loses in straight sets to Sinner.
That would bring the percentage of games won in the equation and that might help the World No. 9 to advance. However that too is a tall order, as Medvedev and Fritz have won 51 percent of their games and De Minaur has won a mere 35 percent so far.
Daniil Medvedev is the only player to have won the ATP Finals in the group
Among the four players in the Ilie Nastate group, Daniil Medvedev is the only player to have won the year-ending Tournament. The World No. 4 won the title in 2020 with a win over Dominic Thiem in the final. He also reached the final in 2021, losing to Alexander Zverev. This is the sixth consecutive time the former World No. 1 has qualified for the ATP Finals.
This is the second time that Jannik Sinner has directly qualified for the year-ending event. Having played as an alternate in 2021, Sinner entered the ATP finals via Direct qualification for the first time in 2023. He reached the summit clash but succumbed to a straight-set victory to Novak Djokovic.
This is the second time that Taylor Fritz has qualified for the ATP Finals. He qualified for the event in 2022, where he reached the semifinals, losing to Novak Djokovic. The American player was also an alternate at last year's edition of the ATP Finals. For Alex de Minaur, this is the first time in the Australian's career that he has qualified for the year-ending Championships.