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Australian Open 2010 - The Reign of The Big Boys Starts Here

After losing to Nikolay Davydenko in the final of last year’s World Tour Finals, or the WTF (I must admit, I still can’t get over that acronym), Juan Martin Del Potro said of his opponent, “he was too good today. He played like PlayStation”. ‘PlayStation tennis’ – it has a nice ring to it, doesn’t it? And Del Potro couldn’t have been more spot on with his assessment of Davydenko’s game.

Playstation tennis

Playstation tennis

Davydenko’s lightning quick movement around the court, his solid groundstrokes, his pinpoint accuracy and his almost never-ending stamina make him seem frighteningly similar to a machine. And yet, there’s a beauty about his game that is compelling and oddly satisfying – you almost want him to make that outrageously angled forehand into the corner, just so that you have proof that such inspired shot-making is humanly possible. A few years ago, there were fears in the tennis world that ‘big-serve tennis’ would take over the game and reduce it to a crap shoot based purely on serving power and volleying skill. I’m pretty sure that ‘PlayStation tennis’, as catchy as it sounds, will inspire no such fears among tennis purists, because unfortunately for Davydenko, he has neither age nor mental fortitude on his side. Instead, ‘big boy tennis’, a style based on explosive power and brute force,  which is not unlike the ‘big babe tennis’ that is currently sweeping the women’s game, could soon become the dominant style of modern tennis. After all, its most capable proponents, Del Potro and Marin Cilic, are all of 21 years of age. On that thought, let’s take a look at the favorites for this year’s Australian Open, based on the draw that was released yesterday:

There’s a saying doing the rounds of the tennis world these days that goes something like “Bet against Federer or a Williams at your own peril”. While I agree that Federer’s unreal consistency at the Slams has to end sometime, and that there could hardly be a more appropriate Slam than the one Down Under (which is sometimes called the step-child of the Slams) for that to happen, I don’t quite think the man’s in that place yet. His draw is not particularly daunting, with his biggest obstacle possibly coming in the form of Davydenko in the quarters, and I like Federer’s chances to get to a record 23rd consecutive Grand slam semi-final. Davydenko HAS been the hottest player on the tour lately, but zero Slam finals on your resume after more than a decade of playing tennis doesn’t speak too highly of your championship mentality. And does Davydenko really believe he can defeat the GOAT in a best-of-five sets match? A glance at his recent press comments would suggest not, and hey, if he’s not going to believe in his chances, neither am I.

Rafael Nadal has possibly the hardest draw of the Big Four (or more appropriately, Big Five), and that’s purely because he’s got one member of the Big Five right in his quarter. A Nadal-Andy Murray quarterfinal looks like a mouth-watering clash, and I don’t see either of them having too much trouble getting to that stage of the tournament. So who do I think will come up trumps in that battle? History would suggest counting on Nadal to make it through, but I think Murray is done with his share of Slam heartbreaks. He’s a hardcourt specialist, and Nadal is not – besides, his lopsided 2-7 head-to-head record against Nadal notwithstanding,  Murray’s recent encounters indicate that he has greater trouble with big-hitters on a hot run rather than a uber-consistent player like Nadal. So yes, I think Nadal’s defense of his first hardcourt Slam ends at the quarterfinal stage.

And what of that Novak Djokovic? I must admit, even to a tennis nut like me, the man is a complete mystery. Will he keep his temper in check? Will he be troubled by the intense Australian summer heat? Will something said by the crowd or his opponent totally rile him up? Or will he blast his way through the draw, overpowering his opponents with his superb groundstrokes and confident swagger? Here’s the thing about Djokovic – I believe he’s got enough game to be among the greatest players of his generation, and I think he’s going to end up with a handful of Major trophies – but I don’t believe he’s mature enough to get on that kind of run yet. Which is why I don’t see him getting past, potentially, the New and Improved Robin Soderling in the quarters.

That brings us to the newest member of the Grand Slam club – the towering Juan Martin Del Potro. Most experts seem to be writing off his chances here – he’s dealing with some kind of wrist injury, and apparently, ‘Maiden Grand Slam Hangover’ is a serious condition that afflicts all new Major Champions, especially ones that are all of 21 years old. Look no further than Djokovic, they say, who’s still searching for a Slam title to add to the one he won in Melbourne two years ago. But something tells me that Del Potro will regroup in time and be back to his bulldozing self by the time the tournament gets underway. At the World Tour Finals in November he seemed to be sleepwalking through all of his matches, and he still managed to reach the final (beating Federer for a second consecutive time on the way, no less). I guess I may be wrong about this, but once you’ve seen one of those thundering slap forehands that Del Potro hits with such nonchalant ease, you know you’re dealing with someone whose game is going to take plenty of time to catch up to.  More importantly, unlike some other ridiculously talented young players (*cough* Ernests Gulbis *cough*), he seems to have his head in the right place. He might be susceptible in the early rounds, but if he gets to his slated quarterfinal against Andy Roddick, then I’ve got just one piece of advice for the rest of the players left in the draw – run for your lives. The man is a friggin’ tank.

So my semifinal lineup would go something like this – Federer vs Soderling and Del Potro vs Murray, with Del Potro and Soderling reaching the final. And who do I think will win the whole thing? Well, if you can’t bet against a Federer or a Williams, you can’t bet against a tank either. Juan Martin Del Potro is the man to beat. Big boy tennis is indeed here to stay.

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