Australian Open 2010: Murray's Breakthrough, At Last

No British player has won a Grand Slam in ‘150,000 years’, as Roger Federer put it so bitingly after his semifinal win yesterday. That’s a lot of pressure on a certain 22-year-old Scot going by the name of Andy Murray looking to get past a 15-time Major Champion who’s also, for all intents and purposes, the GOAT, in the final of the year’s first Grand Slam. We’ve got the next best thing to a Federer-Nadal final this Australian Open in the form of a Federer-Murray final, and I don’t know why, but I’m finding this one of the toughest finals to call in recent memory. The two men are playing pretty much close to their best tennis judging from their performances in the semifinals, and it wouldn’t be amiss to expect another five-set thriller like last year.

Andy Murray to meet Federer in the Australian open Final

150,000 years may not be the actual amount of time that has passed since the tennis world last saw a British champion (the correct answer is 74 years), but Andy Murray certainly does have a lot riding on this final – a lot more than Federer does, anyway. For one thing, you can’t completely rule out the British media going into convulsions and epileptic fits if their favorite Scot fails yet again in bringing home that coveted trophy after all those years of heartbreak and pain. For another, the “it’s Murray’s time” idea that most tennis analysts love to parrot before every Grand Slam may find its way to the rubbish bin if Murray succumbs for the umpteenth time to the pressure of living up to all the hype and expectations. And finally, you do get the feeling that Murray himself wants a Grand Slam trophy real bad; the fierceness of his determination on show while he’s played his first few matches has been a little scary to behold.

And what about that jolly Roger? To be honest, I really can’t see where the man finds the motivation to go through the two-week grind over and over again. He’s won 15 Grand Slams; what comes next? The patently obvious answer would be Grand Slam No. 16, but Federer is due to show his mortal side sooner or later. 23straight Major semifinals is bordering on the inhuman, I agree, but it’s got to end somewhere, right? I know the streak can’t possibly end at this tournament, seeing as how he’s already in the final, but I can’t shake off the feeling that Federer is ready for his first real meltdown in a Slam match since that famous shellacking at the hands of Rafael Nadal at the 2008 French Open. And that, more than anything else, is why I’m giving the edge to Murray in tomorrow’s showdown.

Of course, there’s also the small matter that Murray is arguably playing the better tennis of the two right now. He’s shown superb tactical acumen through his first 6 matches here – he didn’t drop a set up to his quarterfinal meeting against Nadal, and when it was time to face the 6-time Slam champion, he came flying off the gates, surprising everyone with a relentlessly offensive game, using power, precision and, wonder of wonders, net-rushing, to put the Spaniard off-balance and dictate the pace and momentum of the match. Then against Cilic in the semis he opted to bide his time and wait for Cilic’s weary legs to give way; Cilic was overpowering him in the first set but Murray showed great restraint in being patient and using the variety in his game to unsettle the young Croat. The strategy worked like a charm – Cilic cooled off in the second set, Murray began to break at will the fearsome serve coming from a height of nearly 10 feet, and by the end of the match he was hitting spectacular winners that left the crowds and even his opponent gasping. Did Murray literally turn a corner when he hit that outrageous forehand in the last game of the match that curled in from way beyond the sideline to stun Cilic and earn the distinction of being the undisputed shot of the tournament?

Perhaps the only weakness in Murray’s game is his powder puff second serve, so maintaining a high first serve percentage will be absolutely crucial to his chances tomorrow. The backhand-to-backhand rallies that he so liberally indulges in whenever he faces Federer have worked well for him in the past, so I see no reason why he’d abandon that particular tactic. Staying away from Federer’s forehand may not be as important now as it was in the past, considering Federer’s occasional waywardness off that wing recently, so it may not be such a bad idea to throw in a few down-the-line backhands to disrupt Federer’s rhythm and capitalize on his suspect movement to his right. Serving and volleying might turn out to be a good surprise tactic, but that may just as well turn out to be hara-kiri, because when Federer’s passing shots are on, they really are ON. The most important thing that Murray needs to do, however, is to control his nerves and make sure he isn’t affected by stage fright the way he was in his first Slam final; there’s no one who can feast on an opponent’s jitters better than Federer.

Murray be late in joining the Grand Slam party (unlike his peers Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro), but 22 is as good an age as any to wrap one’s fingers around that fabled piece of silverware – a Grand Slam trophy. Let’s face it, the man has too much talent to go without winning a Major throughout his career. And considering Federer’s motivation levels that must surely be waning (remember, this is not Wimbledon) and his recent inconsistency of play, I don’t feel entirely foolish in predicting a Murray win. We know the tennis analysts want it, we know the British media certainly crave it, and most importantly, we know that Murray would do anything to finally fulfill his destiny and forever remove his name from the list of the Slamless Wonders. As the cliché goes, it’s his time.

To read the viewpoint predicting a Federer win tomorrow, click here