Australian Open 2013: Expert picks for the men's draw
The tennis experts of Sportskeeda look ahead at the 2013 Australian Open by making picks for the men in 4 categories: dark horse, early exit, dangerous floater, and champion.
Dark horse
Haresh Ramchandani: One of these days, Juan Martin del Potro is either going to get injured again or break through at a Slam again. Being the only seeded player besides the top 3 to have won a Slam, del Potro knows what it takes to win. He certainly has the game and the metality; the only question is whether he will be able to survive seven best-of-five-set matches in the Melbourne heat. The Argentine has shown that he is prone to breaking down before and will need to be in top physical shape to win.
Jaideep: Milos Raonic has been on the verge of a big breakthrough for almost two years now; he reached the 4th round of this very tournament as a qualifier. His game has certainly improved since then and he just might have it in him this time to make a considerably deeper run.
Anand Datla: Probably the toughest pick, and after much thought my vote goes to Juan Martin del Potro. The lanky Argentine has the game for these courts and if he can keep his forehand together for an entire match, there isn’t a player that can stand in the way of the Tower of Tandil.
Roh: No obvious choices come to mind, though Milos Raonic and Thomaz Bellucci remain the men on the cusp of fame at the highest possible levels of tennisdom.
Sriram Ilango: It is very hard to predict a dark horse in the men’s section given the sheer dominance and guaranteed performance of the top seeds. But if I have to choose one, I would go with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. He came to fame in 2008 at this same place when he reached the finals as an unseeded player, defeating Rafael Nadal in the semis. He may not be the same player now but if anyone can cause an upset, then it surely is him.
Musab Abid: It seems like just yesterday that Jerzy Janowicz‘s shots were rocketing all across the Paris courts, and it’s no surprise that the pole-like Pole is seeded at the year’s first Slam. Janowicz is perfectly susceptible of bombing out of the tournament at the very first hurdle, but if gets on a hot run, then the rest of the field needs to watch out.
Early exit
Haresh Ramchandani: Janko Tipsarevic is ranked no. 9 in the world and is coming off a title in Chennai, but the draw gods have not been too kind to him. Tipsarevic takes on former World No. 1 and local favourite Lleyton Hewitt in a blockbuster first round showdown on Monday night. Hewitt is not going to win the title, but you can certainly count on him to win a couple of rounds in his home event. Plus, he comes in with a win at the Kooyong exhibtion event over some big names like Berdych, Raonic and del Potro. I predict that Tipsarevic loses in five sets.
Jaideep: Janko Tipsarevic will open against 82nd-ranked Lleyton Hewitt in front of a packed Australian crowd. Hewitt defeated three top-15 players to win the Kooyong Classic and also also leads head-head record 3-1 against the Serb. It’s easy to see why this could be the earliest upset of the tournament.
Anand Datla: I may be completely off-base here, but I will go with Roger Federer on this one. Among the many players that could possibly fall early in the year’s first Grand Slam event, no one is likely to be as severely tested as the Swiss. Roger has a draw that could make a Roman soldier’s job seem as easy as a lifeguard’s at a shallow clear beach. Of course, there is also the 18th-seeded Alexandr Dolgopolov who could become the first seeded casualty against the mercurial Gael Monfils in the first round.
Roh: Both David Ferrer and Janko Tipsarevic are candidates to fall under this category. Ferrer, even though he has started strong at Auckland, faces a tough potential third round against Marcos Baghdatis. Though the Cypriot isn’t quite the player that he was a few years ago, he is still a tough opponent to contend with. As for Tipsarevic, he starts against crowd favourite Lleyton Hewitt which is as big a pitfall as it can get.
Sriram Ilango: The newly crowned Chennai Open champion and World No. 9 Janko Tipsarevic is my choice for an early exit. He will face local favorite Lleyton Hewitt in the first round, and even assuming he gets past Hewitt, he still has to face the likes of Gilles Muller, Grigor Dimitrov and Nicolas Almagro before he can progress to the second week.
Musab Abid: Nicolas Almagro is seeded 10th in the tournament, and Juan Monaco is seeded 11th. Instead of spending time trying to explain how either of those things came to pass, let me just go ahead and pick Almagro as the likeliest early exit candidate, if only because he has a slightly tougher draw than Monaco.
Dangerous floater
Haresh Ramchandani: Everyone’s favorite whipping boy a few weeks ago is suddenly the flavor of the week. Bernard Tomic won three matches at the Hopman Cup, including a win over Novak Djokovic, and then promptly went on to win his first ATP title in Sydney this week. If he continues to play as well and keeps his mind focused, he could certainly go deep in the draw – perhaps even beating Roger Federer in round three.
Jaideep: Bernard Tomic won his first ATP title by defeating Kevin Anderson in the Sydney final, and beat Novak Djokovic, Tommy Haas and Andreas Seppi in Perth at the Hopman Cup – all of this in the lead-up to the Australian Open. He certainly looks dangerous right now and his potential third round match against Roger Federer could be really interesting.
Anand Datla: Lleyton Hewitt, who is as dangerous as they come. The Aussie veteran seems fitter than a fiddle after working on his game and body during the long break before January. The 2005 finalist enjoyed a fine run at the Kooyong Classic, and though it was an exhibition event he came through the quality field to clinch the honors. Throw in his undying desire to do well at home, and he promises to knock the sails off from anyone trudging into his path.
Roh: Nikolay Davydenko seems like a good choice here. The once high-ranked Russian is now unseeded, though by no means cast-off by the pundits. He has a potential third-round encounter against four-time champion Roger Federer, and with Federer’s lack of game practice at the start of the season, there could be a shocker on the cards.
Sriram Ilango: Local boy Bernard Tomic is my pick here. He is ranked 43rd in the world but it is obvious that he is a far better player than what his ranking suggests. In the Hopman Cup earlier this year, his serve was inch-perfect. He defeated Novak Djokovic, Tommy Hass and Andrea Seppi in the tournament, and then went on to win his first ATP title at the Apia International in Sydney. That said, Tomic will be severely tested in the third round where he will likely meet Roger Federer.
Musab Abid: Bernard Tomic is the trendy pick here, but one look at his draw and you know his chances of going far in the tournament depend heavily on a certain Swiss being horribly off his game. Grigor Dimitrov, on the other hand, is in a cushy portion of the draw, and is coming off a thoroughly impressive showing in Brisbane. Throw in the prospect of sharing the victory podium with rumored girlfriend and women’s title contender Maria Sharapova, and you know the 21-year-old Bulgarian has very strong motivation to do well here indeed.
Champion
Haresh Ramchandani: Any player out of the top 3 is capable of winning the title in Melbourne. But somehow, I can’t see a 31-year-old Federer beating Murray and Djokovic in back-to-back matches, or Murray winning a second consecutive Grand Slam (and third straight major tournament if you count the Olympics). Novak Djokovic loves the hardcourts of Australia and is a three-time champion. He hasn’t won a Slam since Melbourne 12 months ago and it’s probably time for him to get back to the winners’ circle once again.
Jaideep: Novak Djokovic has reached at least the semifinals in 10 consecutive majors, is placed in the relatively easier half of the draw and has won his most recent encounters against both Federer and Murray. The biggest advantage, though, will be the courts which are almost tailor-made for his aggressive baseline style of play.
Anand Datla: Novak Djokovic is probably the biggest lock on a bet at this stage. The draw has been kind to him in taking Andy Murray, probably his single biggest threat, out of his path until the final. It is difficult to see either Tomas Berdych or David Ferrer being able to upend the defending champion on the Plexicushion surface that plays straight into Djokovic’s territory.
Roh: Novak Djokovic – there’s no two ways of looking at it. Two Australian Open titles in two years, perfect 3-0 Australian Open finals’ record overall; Nole is the man towards whom all the signs point.
Sriram Ilango: This is Novak Djokovic’s surface and this is where his game is most effective. He also has the advantage of not being in the same half as Federer or Murray. He might face Tomas Berdych in the quarterfinals and David Ferrer in the semifinals and he has a great record against both these players. So Nole reaching the finals is pretty much certain. From there on, it is his title to lose.
Musab Abid: It might be premature to put Andy Murray on too high a pedestal after just one Slam victory. But if there’s any place where Murray can produce a strong follow-up result to his breakthrough US Open performance, it has to be Melbourne. Murray loves the Australian hardcourts; he reached the semis here last year, the final in both 2011 and 2010, and if you remember, he was also infamously tagged as the title favorite in 2009. Moreover, Melbourne is the only Slam venue where the Scot holds a clear physical advantage over Novak Djokvovic; if Djokovic’s heat-related allergy issues come to the fore once again, you can be sure that Murray would only be too willing to grab his opportunity to prove that the US Open was no fluke.