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Australian Open 2014: Statistical preview of Roger Federer vs Andy Murray

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2013 Australian Open - Day 12

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA – JANUARY 25: Andy Murray of Great Britain shakes hands with Roger Federer of Switzerland after Murray won their semifinal match during day twelve of the 2013 Australian Open at Melbourne Park on January 25, 2013 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)

6th seed Roger Federer is set to take on 4th seed Andy Murray in the quarter-finals of the Australian Open on Wednesday, 22nd Jan 2014. The match will take place at 7:00 PM local time on Rod Laver Arena, and should be a high-quality match. Whilst Murray is playing his first tournament back from surgery, Federer is coming off the back of a lean 2013. As a preview to the match, I present a statistical analysis of the four matches that both men have played so far at the 2014 Australian Open.

Service Profile

  1. Federer has hit more aces (35) than Murray (31).
  2. Federer has hit more service winners (12) than Murray (7).
  3. Federer has hit fewer double faults (7) than Murray (14).
  4. Federer has a better first serve percentage (63.02 %) than Murray (62.96 %).
  5. Federer has won more points on his first serve (84.69 %) than Murray (80.09 %).
  6. Federer has won more points on his second serve (60.00 %) than Murray (53.08 %).
  7. Murray’s fastest serve (209 km/h) is faster than Federer’s (208 km/h).
  8. Federer’s average first serve speed (182 km/h) is better than Murray’s (177 km/h).
  9. Federer’s average second serve speed (151 km/h) is better than Murray’s (134 km/h).

Return Profile

  1. Murray has won more points on his opponent’s first serve (38.69 %) than Federer (36.70 %).
  2. Murray has won more points on his opponent’s second serve (56.94 %) than Federer (51.63 %).
  3. Murray has a better break point conversion rate (47.27 %) than Federer (36.73 %).
  4. Federer has made more return winners (48) than Murray (47).
  5. Federer has made fewer return unforced errors (48) than Murray (63).

Rally Profile

  1. Federer has won all his matches in straight sets, whereas Murray lost a set (3rd) to Robert in the 4th round.
  2. Federer has won more points coming to the net (76.79 %) than Murray (70.37 %).
  3. Federer has played fewer points (in total) (681) than Murray (737).

Winner and Unforced Error Profile

  1. Federer has hit more winners (160) than Murray (134).
  2. Federer has made fewer unforced errors (91) than Murray (121).
  3. Federer has hit more forehand winners (75) than Murray (64).
  4. Federer has hit more backhand winners (33) than Murray (22).
  5. Murray has made fewer forced errors off his forehand (22) than Federer (26).
  6. Federer has made fewer forced errors off his backhand (18) than Murray (28).
  7. Federer has made fewer unforced errors off his forehand (36) than Murray (57).
  8. Both players have made equal unforced errors off their backhand (39).
  9. Murray has elicited more forced errors off his opponents’ forehands (38) than Federer (36).
  10. Federer has elicited more forced errors off his opponents’ backhands (29) than Murray (26).

The statistics point to a victory for Roger Federer due to his superb winners and unforced errors ratio, but the game of tennis is such that statistics can amount to nothing – it all depends on how a player plays on the day. Murray holds a winning record (11-8) over Federer, but is coming back from injury and is yet to face a real test in the tournament. Last year, Murray outlasted Federer in five sets, but that was when Federer had just played a 5-setter with Tsonga as well. With Federer fresh off a confidence-boosting straight-sets victory over Tsonga, he may just have enough to nick it.

Prediction – Federer in a five-set thriller

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