Australian Open 2020: Predicting how far Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev will progress in the tournament
Although Alexander Zverev was once hailed as the figurehead of the NextGen, throughout 2019, it was largely Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev who were leading the charge against the Big 3.
Tsitsipas began 2019 by defeating Federer at the Australian Open before bowing out in the semifinals and finished it by winning the ATP World Tour Finals during his debut at the event. Medvedev was the in-form player during the post-Wimbledon period and fully deserved to win the US Open. However, an experienced Nadal proved to be just a bit too much for the young Russian, as he had to settle for second place.
Whilst the Big 3 remain the favourites to win the 2020 Australian Open, that does not mean they will win it. Tennis is full of surprises and this could be the year that the new generation finally makes a meaningful impact at the Grand Slams.
This article is going to look at the projected routes of Tsitsipas and Medvedev, who are held by many as the two NextGen favourites to upset the Big 3 in Melbourne and give a prediction of where they will most likely finish in the tournament.
Stefanos Tsitsipas (6th seed)
Stefanos Tsitsipas' projected route to the final: R1 Caruso, R2 Kohlschreiber, R3 Raonic, R4 Bautista-Agut, QF Djokovic, SF Federer, F Nadal
Stefanos Tsitsipas has arguably the toughest draw amongst the main contenders. In all likelihood, he will have to beat all of the Big 3 for him to win the tournament and it doesn't need to be stressed as to how near-impossible that feat will be.
Tsitsipas' 6th seed means that he is prone to facing tougher competition earlier on than Medvedev will. Nevertheless, Tsitsipas will begin his Australian Open campaign with a fairly easy match against Salvatore Caruso, who is currently ranked 94th in the world.
He could face tennis-veteran, Philipp Kohlschreiber, in his second-round match in a match that will prove trickier. Although Kohlschreiber is not the player he once was, he has plenty of experience in Grand Slams, having reached the fourth round of the Australian Open on three separate occasions.
Nevertheless, Tsitsipas should be more than capable of seeing this game through without too many hiccups. He could then face big-serving Milos Raonic in the fourth round.
There was a time where many felt that Raonic would be one of the ones to overthrow the Big 3, that was years ago, however, and didn't happen. He is not the player he was and if Tsitsipas is at his best, he should get through this match without too many scratches.
The fourth round is where Tsitsipas' draw becomes truly merciless. The Greek will most probably face fellow top-10 player, Roberto Bautista-Agut, who reached the semi-finals of Wimbledon last year.
Interestingly, their only encounter occurred at last year's Australian Open, where Tsitsipas defeated Bautista-Agut in four sets to advance to the semifinals. The Greek will have to be focussed to see this one through but should be able to do so in a similar fashion to last year.
Next, our hero enters into the belly of the beast and will probably face Novak Djokovic. This will be seriously difficult for the Greek to win. Though they have won two matches each against one another, the last came in Paris, where Djokovic wiped Tsitsipas off the court in straight sets.
Tsitsipas can only win this match by playing lights out attacking tennis. The longer he draws out the match, the more time Djokovic has to wear his opponent down as he is so famed to do.
Should he win though, he will then probably face Roger Federer. Tsitsipas beat Federer at last year's Australian Open and again at the ATP World Tour Finals. Therefore, he should have more confidence in this match.
Furthermore, if he beats Djokovic in the quarterfinals, he will be brimming with the confidence he will need to defeat arguably the greatest tennis player who has ever lived. Again, however, he will have to play all-out attacking tennis to neutralise Federer's peerless shotmaking, otherwise, the Swiss could run away with the match.
Now, should Tsitsipas do the near-impossible and defeat both Djokovic and Federer, his final opponent will probably be, Rafael Nadal. To defeat one of the Big 3 is huge, to defeat all 3 in a row, isn't worth thinking about.
It is hard to see Tsitsipas doing this, he may well upset Djokovic in the quarterfinals, but how sure can we be that this will happen? The draw is totally against him and unless favourable upsets occur in the earlier rounds, which isn't impossible, Tsitsipas will most likely bow out in the quarterfinals to Novak Djokovic.
The Greek will win many Grand Slams in his career, however, the 2020 Australian Open draw has done him no favours and it does not look as though this will be his breakthrough tournament.
Predicted finish: The quarterfinals
Also Get: Full Australian Open 2020 Schedule
Daniil Medvedev (4th seed)
Medvedev's projected route to the final: R1 Tiafoe, R2 Koepfer, R3 Tsonga, R4 Wawrinka, QF Zverev, SF Nadal, F Djokovic/Federer
Thanks to Medvedev's superior ranking, in theory, the Russian has an easier draw to Tsitsipas and this is certainly true with regards to when he will most likely face the Big 3. The Russian finds himself on the easier half of the draw and given his current form, he should reach at least the semifinals of the tournament, where he will most likely face Rafael Nadal.
The Russian begins his tournament with a fairly tough match against Tiafoe, nevertheless, Medvedev has the tools to blow the American off the court, as he did in Washington last year. Medvedev will have an easier time in his second-round match, but will soon likely face a string of current and former top 10 tennis players.
His third-round match will most likely see him battle Tsonga, whilst this would have been an arduous match years ago, Tsonga is not the player he once was and Medvedev should be able to get through that match as well.
Medvedev then has the possibility of meeting three-time Grand Slam champion, Stan Wawrinka in the fourth round. This will be an incredibly interesting tie (if it happens) as when Wawrinka is at his best, he is virtually invincible, as Djokovic and Nadal can attest. However, the Swiss has recently returned from injury and doesn't look his best.
Should Medvedev survive that test, he could face fellow NextGenner, Alexander Zverev in the quarterfinals. This could prove a stern test for the Russian. Both players have a similar playing style and whilst Zverev was below-par in 2019 when he is at his best he is as good as any of the NextGen players.
However, it remains to be seen whether Zverev can rediscover that form in 2020, which is in stark contrast to Medvedev, who showed in the ATP Cup that he isn't just in-form, he is close to challenging the Big 3 on the big stages.
If Medvedev reaches the semifinals he will most likely face Rafael Nadal, who narrowly beat him in the US Open final. Although Nadal will be favourite if this match happens, Medvedev should fancy his chances. The Australian Open plays faster than the US Open and this will increase the effectiveness of his powerful shots.
Whilst Nadal can use his grinding defensive tennis on slower courts, on faster courts, this is harder to do and could play a big role in their match. However, experience will also be key and will be a tough ask for Medvedev to see this one through.
Should he reach the final, however, the Russian could face either Federer or Djokovic in the final, such is the fate of those who play in the era of the Big 3. It is hard seeing the Russian winning this match, beating Nadal will undoubtedly be a physically and emotionally draining affair and this could cause the Russian to have a bit of a hangover going into the final.
With this considered, Medvedev will most likely reach the semifinals of the Australian Open this year and maybe even the final. However, should he face a member of the Big 3 in both of those rounds, it is hard to say he will go on to win the title.
Predicted finish: The semifinals