Australian Open 2022 Final: Rafael Nadal vs Daniil Medvedev, 3 things that could determine the outcome of the match
Sixth seed Rafael Nadal will take on second seed Daniil Medvedev in the final of the Australian Open on Sunday. The 35-year-old Spaniard is one win away from a record 21st Grand Slam title. Meanwhile, the 25-year-old Russian is looking to secure the No. 1 ranking from Novak Djokovic.
With plenty on the line for both players, here's a look at three things that could determine the outcome of Sunday's match.
#1 Fitness
Nadal struggled during a couple of his day session matches this past fortnight. He battled stomach problems and tired legs in his quarterfinal clash against Denis Shapovalov in extremely hot conditions. However, he looked a lot better in the semifinal that was played under a closed roof.
Medvedev, meanwhile, has been involved in many more grueling matches than the Spaniard. His quarterfinal contest against Felix Auger-Aliassime lasted almost five hours.
Nadal has been in this position many times before; he has competed in 24 more Slam finals than Medvedev. While the Spaniard will have the advantage of experience, Medvedev will have the exuberance of youth on his side.
#2 Daniil Medvedev's serve vs Rafael Nadal's return
Rafael Nadal is not the biggest of servers, but he has defended that shot pretty well in this tournament. The Spaniard won 73% of his first-serve points against Matteo Berrettini in the semifinals and faced only two break points.
Daniil Medvedev, on the other hand, is a huge server. He won a whopping 86% of his first-serve points against Stefanos Tsitsipas. His first serve regularly breached the 190 kmph mark and he was broken only once.
Nadal is likely to adopt a very deep return position to try and get the Russian's serve back in play. But if Medvedev lands enough first serves, he will have the advantage over the Spaniard.
#3 Who will be more willing to pull the trigger?
Medvedev and Nadal both like to engage in long rallies, forcing their opponents into errors. The Spaniard relies primarily on his forehand to do most of the heavy lifting. He uses his crosscourt forehand to force his opponent into the backhand corner before unleashing a down-the-line winner.
That tactic might not work against the Russian, who has one of the best backhands on tour. Medvedev, on his part, will be happy to engage in crosscourt exchanges and attack Nadal's forehand, a tactic that Novak Djokovic has used to great effect against the Spaniard.
But he must be willing to pull the trigger and hit down-the-line backhands to finish off points. Nadal and Medvedev play down-the-line shots really well off their forehand and backhand sides respectively and the player that's more willing to play proactive tennis could come out on top.