Australian Open 2023 Draw: Novak Djokovic's projected path to the final, potential QF clash with Nick Kyrgios and SF with Casper Ruud
Back at the Australian Open after a year's absence, Novak Djokovic will look to win a record-extending tenth title at Melbourne Park in the next fortnight.
The Serb arrives in red-hot form, opening his 2023 campaign with his 92nd career singles title in Adelaide. Although he suffered an injury scare in practice against last year's finalist Daniil Medvedev on Wednesday (January 11), the 35-year-old looks set to write another glorious chapter at the Happy Slam.
Seeded fourth at the year's opening Grand Slam, Djokovic has avoided top seed and defending champion Rafael Nadal in his half of the draw. That means the legendary duo cannot meet before the final.
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So, without further ado, here's a look at Djokovic's projected path to a tenth Australian Open final:
Novak Djokovic's 1R opponent - Roberto Carballes Baena
Novak Djokovic opens his campaign for a record-equalling 22nd Grand Slam title against Spaniard Roberto Carballes Baena.
The World No. 75 has won only one of his five main draw matches at Melbourne Park, compared to Djokovic's 82, making this contest a mismatch on paper. Moreover, the Serb won the pair's lone meeting in the first round of the 2019 US Open in straight sets.
He should have no problems in doing an encore at Melbourne Park, having not lost in the opening round since his second appearance in 2006.
Novak Djokovic's likely 2R opponent - Hugo Dellien
If he crosses the opening hurdle, Novak Djokovic could meet Hugo Dellien for a place in the third round. The Serb's only defeat in 17 second-round matches at the Australian Open came in 2017, but he's unlikely to lose against Dellien.
The 132nd-ranked Bolivian has not won a main-draw match or a set at Melbourne Park in two attempts. In his only previous meeting with Djokovic, Dellien won just four games in a lopsided opening-round defeat at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021.
Novak Djokovic's likely 3R opponent - Grigor Dimitrov
Novak Djokovic will likely face his first real test — and seeded opponent — in the third round against 27th seed Grigor Dimitrov.
The World No. 29 has reached three quarterfinals and a semifinal (2017) at Melbourne Park. Dimitrov has also reached the last four at Roland Garros and US Open, so he has experience of going deep at Grand Slams.
However, the 31-year-old has won only one of his ten previous meetings against Djokovic. The pair's second and latest Grand Slam meeting was in the 2014 Wimbledon semis, which the Serb won in four sets. Considering the same, Djokovic should reach the second week without much hassle.
Novak Djokovic's likely 4R opponent - Pablo Carreno Busta
Pablo Carreno Busta could await Novak Djokovic in the second week at Melbourne Park.
The 14th seed has a 15-9 record at the Australian Open and has reached the second week thrice. Carreno Busta trails his H2H against Djokovic 4-2, but the pair have split their two Grand Slam meetings.
The Spaniard won by default in the 2020 US Open fourth round after Djokovic had beaten him in the Roland Garros quarterfinals earlier. However, Carreno Busta beat Djokovic in the bronze medal match at the Tokyo Olympics two years ago.
However, considering Djokovic's superior big-match pedigree, he should see off this match and reach the last eight at Melbourne Park for the 13th time.
Novak Djokovic's likely quarterfinal opponent - Nick Kyrgios
Going strictly by seedings, fifth seed Andrey Rublev is expected to meet Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinals. However, with the dangerous Nick Kyrgios lurking in this section of the draw and playing at his home Grand Slam, he's the more likely last-eight opponent for the Serb.
The 19th seed is one of a handful of players — active or retired — to hold a winning H2H record (2-1) against Djokovic. The pair most recently clashed in the Wimbledon final last year, where the Serb won in four sets.
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With his new-found confidence at Grand Slams, Kyrgios is expected to return to the last eight at the Australian Open for the first time in eight years. A feisty encounter with Djokovic could ensue, but the Serb is expected to reign supreme once again.
Novak Djokovic's likely SF opponent - Casper Ruud
Casper Ruud is one of three players — including Djokovic — who could leave Melbourne Park as the World No. 1.
The World No. 3 is coming off a fabulous 2022 campaign, reaching two Grand Slam finals and a Masters 1000 title match. Although Ruud came up second-best in all three matches, his improved play on hardcourts — evidenced by his run to the 2022 US Open final — makes him a formidable opponent.
Ruud, though, has never been beyond the fourth round at Melbourne Park in three previous appearances. The Norwegian will be World No. 1 if he reaches the final and Djokovic and Stefanos Tsitsipas do not.
However, with Ruud not winning a set in four previous meetings with Djokovic — he might need to wait for another shot at the World No. 1 ranking.
Novak Djokovic's likely final opponent - Rafael Nadal
In what would be a fitting end to the year's first Grand Slam, Novak Djokovic could meet top seed and defending champion Rafael Nadal in the title match.
However, the 36-year-old has a landmine of a draw, with big servers and dangerous floaters galore in his section of the draw. Moreover, Nadal has lost his first two matches of a season for the first time in his illustrious career.
He has arrived at Melbourne Park visibly short of match sharpness, having won only one of his last six matches. However, he could always play himself into title contention as the tournament wears on.
Nadal and Djokovic have a storied rivalry, having clashed on a record 59 occasions, with the Serb holding a narrow 30-29 lead. This includes two final meetings at the Australian Open (2012, 2019), with Djokovic winning both. Moreover, Djokovic is a perfect 9-0 in Australian Open title matches, while Nadal is 2-4.
If the two players do meet for a 60th time in two weeks' time, it should be advantage Djokovic. Moreover, a victory for Djokovic would return him to the top of the ATP singles rankings.