Australian Open 2023 draw: Rafael Nadal's projected path to the final, potential QF with Daniil Medvedev and SF with Stefanos Tsitsipas
Rafael Nadal's quest for a record-extending 23rd Grand Slam title will begin at next week's Australian Open.
The Spaniard has started the new season on a less-than-positive note. He competed in the inaugural United Cup, where he lost to Cameron Norrie and Alex de Minaur — the first time he has lost his first two matches of a season in his career. This is in stark contrast to last year when he entered the tournament on the heels of a title win before claiming his 21st Major crown Down Under.
The draw for the 2023 Australian Open has been unveiled, with the defending champion getting a relatively tough draw. Here's a closer look at Nadal's projected path to the final:
Rafael Nadal's 1st-round opponent - Jack Draper
The Spaniard won't have time to play himself into form as he'll face the talented Jack Draper in the first round itself. The young Brit has risen in the rankings in the past year and has the potential to make things difficult for the defending champion.
Draper is currently in the semifinals of the Adelaide International 2, so he's headed into Melbourne in good form. This will be the first career meeting between them.
Rafael Nadal's likely 2nd-round opponent - Brandon Nakashima/Mackenzie McDonald
An American will be awaiting the 36-year-old in the second round, as he could face either Brandon Nakashima or Mackenzie McDonald. While he hasn't squared off against the former, he won his only meeting against the latter at the 2020 French Open. While either of them could give the Spaniard a tough fight, he should be able to emerge victorious in the end.
Rafael Nadal's likely 3rd-round opponent - Yoshihito Nishioka / Jaume Munar
Yoshihito Nishioka broke into the top 40 of the rankings recently and clinched his second career title last year. Nadal has a winning record against him, having defeated him twice before. He could also be up against compatriot Jaume Munar at this stage, who should be easier for him to deal with.
Rafael Nadal's likely 4th-round opponent - Frances Tiafoe / Karen Khachanov
Frances Tiafoe knocked out Nadal in the fourth round of last year's US Open, with the duo on track to meet yet again. The American has been in pretty good form over the past year, though he has also been a little inconsistent. However, having defeated the former World No. 1 once before, he'll have the self-belief to repeat the feat.
Khachanov is another dangerous player, but given the Spaniard's 8-0 record against him, he'll prefer him over Tiafoe.
Rafael Nadal's likely quarterfinal opponent - Daniil Medvedev / Hubert Hurkacz
Daniil Medvedev came quite close to winning the Australian Open last year, but Nadal staged a fantastic comeback to score a five-set victory in the final. They could meet a little earlier this time, with a potential quarterfinal date on the horizon. But the Russian has defeated him just once in six tries.
Medvedev's lone win against the Spaniard came at the 2020 ATP Finals, a tournament where Nadal hasn't had much success. Should Medvedev falter early on, the defending champion could face Hubert Hurkacz.
The Pole has underperformed at the Majors. He has made it past the fourth round of a Grand Slam just once and has never advanced beyond the second round in Melbourne.
Rafael Nadal's likely semifinal opponent - Stefanos Tsitsipas
Stefanos Tsitsipas is a three-time semifinalist at the Australian Open and based on his recent form, looks set to make the last four yet again. A couple of years ago, he staged a comeback from two sets down to defeat Nadal in the quarterfinals here. The Greek often plays some of his best tennis Down Under, so the defending champion has his task cut out for him should they meet again.
Rafael Nadal's likely opponent in the final - Novak Djokovic
Should the Spaniard make it to the championship round, he'll need to get the better of arch-rival Novak Djokovic. But that's a tall order for anyone, that too at the Australian Open, where the Serb is a nine-time champion.
Djokovic was unable to compete here last year after a visa scandal led to his deportation. Originally handed a three-year ban, it was overturned and now he's back again. He won his 92nd career title at the Adelaide International 1, so he's in pretty good form at the moment.
However, if by any chance Djokovic loses early, Nadal could face Casper Ruud in the final. The Norwegian made it to a couple of Grand Slam finals last year but has arrived in Melbourne with some confidence denting losses.
Nick Kyrgios, Matteo Berrettini and Alexander Zverev are also in the bottom half of the draw. The trio have the experience of making it to a Major final before and if they raise their level, could do it again.