Australian Open 2023: Men's singles draw analysis, preview & prediction
The draw for the men's singles tournament at the 2023 Australian Open has been announced. And fans around the globe are in for two weeks of non-stop tennis entertainment from Melbourne Park.
Novak Djokovic will make his return to the Asia-Pacific Major a year after his visa controversy, and will arguably be the heavy favorite to win given his form over the past few months. However, reigning champion Rafael Nadal should not be written off, as he is more than capable of challenging for the title.
The likes of Daniil Medvedev, Casper Ruud, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Andrey Rublev and Felix Auger-Aliassime are also in the reckoning given their qualities. With some exciting matches ahead of us in the forthcoming days, let's take a look at how the men's singles draw could unfold:
First quarter: Rafael Nadal and Daniil Medvedev could have a rematch of the 2022 final in the quarterfinals
Seeded Players: (1) Rafael Nadal, (7) Daniil Medvedev, (10) Hubert Hurkacz, (16) Frances Tiafoe, (18) Karen Khachanov, (20) Denis Shapovalov, (29) Sebastian Korda, (31) Yoshihito Nishioka.
Expected quarterfinal: Rafael Nadal vs Daniil Medvedev.
Dark horse: Jack Draper.
Analysis: Rafael Nadal's title defense will start off against talented Brit Jack Draper, who reached the quarterfinals of last year's Canadian Open. The Spaniard may not have it easy but should be able to get the win and advance to the second round, where he will face either Brandon Nakashima or Mackenzie McDonald.
Nadal should be able to beat either player and set up a third-round clash against 31st seed Yoshihito Nishioka, who produced some good performances during the second half of last season. The 36-year-old will most likely face Frances Tiafoe in the fourth round, but Karen Khachanov could be a possibility too.
Tiafoe beat Nadal in the fourth round of the US Open, but the Spaniard looks in better shape now and will be expected to become increasingly formidable as the Australian Open progresses. He should be able to get the better of the American and reach the quarterfinals.
Two-time Australian Open runner-up Daniil Medvedev, meanwhile, seems the most obvious choice for the last eight spot from the other half of this quarter. The Russian should have little trouble reaching the third round, where he could face 29th seed Sebastian Korda, who recently gave Novak Djokovic a run for his money in Adelaide.
Medvedev will have a tough task on his hands but should manage to make it to the Round-of-16, where he will most likely be up against either 10th seed Hubert Hurkacz or 20th seed Denis Shapovalov. Both players have done well against Medvedev in the past, but the Russian should be able to overcome either and reach the quarterfinals.
Quarterfinal prediction: Rafael Nadal def. Daniil Medvedev
Second quarter: Stefanos Tsitsipas and Felix Auger-Aliassime favorites to reach quarterfinals but Cameron Norrie and Jannik Sinner not far behind
Seeded Players: (3) Stefanos Tsitsipas, (6) Felix Auger-Aliassime, (11) Cameron Norrie, (15) Jannik Sinner, (17) Lorenzo Musetti, (21) Borna Coric, (28) Francisco Cerundolo, (32) Botic van de Zandschulp.
Expected quarterfinal: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Felix Auger-Aliassime.
Dark horse: Stan Wawrinka.
Analysis: Stefanos Tsitsipas has made it to the semifinals in three of the last four editions of the Australian Open. The Greek will face Quentin Halys in the first round and should have little trouble defeating him.
Tsitsipas will likely have an easy path to the Round-of-16, where his opponent could be either Jannik Sinner or Lorenzo Musetti.
Tsitsipas beat Sinner in last year's Australian Open quarterfinals and has a 3-0 head-to-head lead over Musetti, so he should be able to beat either of them and reach the quarterfinals.
The other side of the quarter has seventh seed Felix Auger-Aliassime and Cameron Norrie, among others. 2014 Australian Open champion Stan Wawrinka is also present and is capable of producing a good run if he is at his best. However, the Swiss' journey could well come to an end in the second round, where he will likely face Auger-Aliassime.
The Canadian should not have much trouble reaching the fourth round, where he will most likely face either Cameron Norrie or Borna Coric. Both Norrie and Coric are formidable on their day but the Brit looks in good touch and should be able to beat the Croat.
Auger-Aliassime leads 5-1 in the head-to-head against Norrie but will be given a tough fight if the two lock horns. The Canadian should eventually just about manage to get the win and reach his second successive quarterfinal at the Australian Open.
Quarterfinal prediction: Felix Auger-Aliassime def. Stefanos Tsitsipas.
Third quarter: Novak Djokovic aiming to win his 10th Australian Open crown
Seeded Players: (4) Novak Djokovic, (5) Andrey Rublev, (9) Holger Rune, (14) Pablo Carreno Busta, (19) Nick Kyrgios, (22) Alex de Minaur, (25) Dan Evans, (27) Grigor Dimitrov.
Expected quarterfinal: Novak Djokovic vs Andrey Rublev.
Dark horse: Dominic Thiem.
Analysis: Novak Djokovic is showing no signs of slowing down and often produces his best tennis at the Australian Open.
Djokovic should manage to reach the fourth round without much trouble, although Grigor Dimitrov in the third round could test him for a set or two. The Serb's likely opponent in the Round-of-16 will be Alex de Minaur, or possibly Pablo Carreno Busta.
De Minaur will have the crowd's support and will be in good spirits, especially after beating Rafael Nadal at the United Cup. However, Djokovic should be able to defeat the Aussie and book his place in the quarterfinals.
The other side of this quarter, meanwhile, has Andrey Rublev, who will face Dominic Thiem in the first round. The Russian may not have it easy but should manage to get the win nonetheless.
In the fourth round, Rublev's opponent is likely to be either ninth seed Holger Rune or 19th seed Nick Kyrgios.
Kyrgios produced some brilliant tennis in 2022 and is close to being the player many thought he would become. The 27-year-old seems a lot more consistent now and should be able to make it to the fourth round.
Kyrgios thrashed Rublev 6-3, 6-0 when the two locked horns in Miami last season. But the Russian ended 2022 on a good note, and should manage to get the win over Kyrgios this time - albeit by narrow margins.
Quarterfinal prediction: Novak Djokovic def. Andrey Rublev.
Fourth quarter: Casper Ruud, Taylor Fritz, Alexander Zverev and Matteo Berrettini in the running for quarterfinal spots
Seeded players: (2) Casper Ruud, (8) Taylor Fritz, (12) Alexander Zverev, (13) Matteo Berrettini, (23) Diego Schwartzman, (24) Robert Bautista Agut, (26) Miomir Kecmanovic, (30) Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Expected quarterfinal: Casper Ruud vs Taylor Fritz
Dark horse: Andy Murray
Analysis: Casper Ruud missed out on last year's Australian Open due to injury, so he will be eager to have a good tournament in 2023. The Norwegian is seeded second, which is his highest-ever seeding at a Grand Slam so far.
While the likes of Jenson Brooksby and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina should not be written off, Ruud should be able to reach the fourth round without much trouble. There, his opponent will most likely be Matteo Berrettini, although Andy Murray and Roberto Bautista Agut should not be ruled out.
Ruud and Berrettini could well put on a thrilling encounter, with the Norwegian just about edging Berrettini to reach the quarterfinals.
The other side of the quarter has eighth seed Taylor Fritz as well as 12th seed Alexander Zverev, the latter of whom will be playing his first Grand Slam since his ankle injury at last year's French Open.
Though the likes of Miomir Kecmanovic, David Goffin and Diego Schwartzman are capable of causing a few upsets in this quarter, it will most likely come down to Fritz and Zverev for the quarterfinal spot.
The German is a fine player but might not be back to his best just yet, so Fritz will most likely get the win and reach his first Australian Open quarterfinal.
Quarterfinal prediction: Casper Ruud def. Taylor Fritz
Semifinal Predictions
Rafael Nadal def. Felix Auger-Aliassime
Novak Djokovic def. Casper Ruud
Final Prediction
Novak Djokovic def. Rafael Nadal