Australian Open 2024: Women's singles draw analysis, preview and prediction ft. potential Iga Swiatek-Jelena Ostapenko QF clash
The women's singles draw for the 2024 Australian Open has been released, setting the ball rolling for two weeks of exciting tennis action in Melbourne Park.
Aryna Sabalenka won last year's tournament by beating Elena Rybakina in the final. The Belarusian is bound to have a tough title defense though, as the likes of Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff and Elena Rybakina are all capable of challenging her.
On that note, let's take a look at how the women's singles draw at the Australian Open could unfold:
1st Quarter: Iga Swiatek eyeing maiden Australian Open title
Seeded Players: (1) Iga Swiatek, (7) Marketa Vondrousova, (11) Jelena Ostapenko, (15) Veronika Kudermetova, (18) Victoria Azarenka, (19) Elina Svitolina, (27) Emma Navarro, (31) Marie Bouzkova
Expected quarterfinal: Iga Swiatek vs Jelena Ostapenko
Dark Horse: Angelique Kerber
Analysis: Top seed Iga Swiatek is the favorite to win the Australian Open but hasn't received the easiest of draws, as she will take on Sofia Kenin in the first round. That said, the Pole can be expected to beat the American and book her place in the second round.
Swiatek could face either Angelique Kerber or Danielle Collins in the second round and while both are tough competitors on their day, the Pole will likely come out victorious. From there, Swiatek should be able to reach the fourth round with relative ease, where her most likely opponent would be either Elina Svitolina or Veronika Kudermetova.
Swiatek will not have it easy but should manage to come out on top and reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open.
The other side of this quarter has the likes of seventh seed Marketa Vondrousova, two-time champion Victoria Azarenka and former Roland Garros winner Jelena Ostapenko. Vondrousova had a poor end to 2023, with three defeats in the WTA Finals. However, the Czech should be able to reach the fourth round given the kind of performances she produced last season when at her best.
In the Round of 16, she would likely face either Victoria Azarenka or Jelena Ostapenko, both of whom reached at least the quarterfinals at last year's Australian Open. Ostapenko will be expected to beat Azarenka if she is at her best. If the Latvian makes it to the fourth round, she will most likely get the better of Vondrousova and book her place in the quarterfinals.
Jelena Ostapenko could be Iga Swiatek's competitor in the last eight in Melbourne, which would be a true test of the Pole's mental resolve. Ostapenko has a 4-0 record against Swiatek and there's a fair chance she could come out on top again, especially if the World No. 1 has a few physically tedious matches in the first four rounds.
QF Prediction: Jelena Ostapenko def. Iga Swiatek
2nd Quarter: Elena Rybakina and Jessica Pegula could lock horns in QF
Seeded Players: (3) Elena Rybakina, (5) Jessica Pegula, (12) Zheng Qinwen, (14) Daria Kasatkina, (22) Sorana Cirstea, (24) Anhelina Kalinina, (26) Jasmine Paolini, (29) Zhu Lin
Expected Quarterfinal: Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegula
Dark Horse: Karolina Pliskova
Analysis: Last year's runner-up and third seed Elena Rybakina will have a tough start to her campaign as she takes on former World No. 1 Karolina Pliskova. The Kazakh has had a great start to her 2024 season though, and should be able to beat the Czech.
Jasmine Paolini, Anna Blinkova and Tatjana Maria are among Rybakina's potential opponents after that, and she should be able to reach the fourth round without much trouble. There, she would most likely face 14th seed Daria Kasatkina, although the likes of Sloane Stephens and Anhelina Kalinina should not be written off.
If Rybakina is able to maintain her form, she should not have much pproblem beating either player and booking her place in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open.
The other side of this quarter is headlined by fifth seed Jessica Pegula, who has earned a reputation of being an underachiever at Grand Slams. The American could face the likes of Zhu Lin, Emma Raducanu and 12th seed Zhing Qinwen in the first four rounds.
While none of these fixtures will be cakewalks, Pegula's quality should see her qualify for the quarterfinals, maybe even without dropping a set.
The American is projected to go up against Rybakina in the quarterfinals, and fans could have a thriller on their hands. The latter's composure should see her eke out a win and book her place in the Australian Open semifinals.
Quarterfinal Prediction: Elena Rybakina def. Jessica Pegula
3rd Quarter: Coco Gauff and Naomi Osaka could meet in 3R
Seeded Players: (5) Coco Gauff, (8) Maria Sakkari, (10) Beatriz Haddad Maia, (16) Caroline Garcia, (20) Magda Linette, (23) Anastasia Potapova, (25) Elise Mertens, (32) Leylah Fernandez
Expected Quarterfinal: Coco Gauff vs Caroline Wozniacki
Dark Horse: Naomi Osaka
Analysis: US Open champion and fourth seed Coco Gauff will start her Australian Open campaign against Anna-Karolina Schmiedlova. Given the American's form over the past 5-6 months, she should reach the third round easily. She could face a stiff challenge from 32nd seed Leylah Fernandez there, but will likely come out on top and reach the fourth round.
Naomi Osaka is also in this quarter, and will face 16th seed Caroline Garcia in the first round. Garcia has looked in decent shape so far this year, and there is a fair chance of her not only beating Osaka but also reaching the fourth round in Melbourne.
Gauff will likely get the better of Garcia there though, confirming her places in the quarterfinals.
The other side of this quarter has eighth seed Maria Sakkari, tenth seed Beatriz Haddad Maia, 25th seed Elise Mertens and former Australian Open champion Caroline Wozniacki. Sakkari often struggles with inconsistency but she should be able to make it to the fourth round.
Caroline Wozniacki is not the player she once was, but she is still capable of producing good tennis, as we saw in the US Open. The Dane could be Sakkari's opponent in the Round of 16 and there is a fair chance of her coming out on top and reaching her first Grand Slam quarterfinal in six years.
Gauff and Wozniacki would then have a rematch of their US Open fourth-round clash in the Australian Open quarterfinals. The two played a good match in Flushing Meadows and we could see a similar fixture, with the American once again coming out on top.
Quarterfinal Prediction: Coco Gauff def. Caroline Wozniacki
4th Quarter: Aryna Sabalenka all set for title defense at Australian Open
Seeded Players: (2) Aryna Sabalenka, (6) Ons Jabeur, (9) Barbora Krejcikova, (13) Liudmila Samsonova, (17) Ekaterina Alexandrova, (21) Donna Vekic, (28) Lesia Tsurenko, (30) Wang Xinyu
Expected Quarterfinal: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ons Jabeur
Dark Horse: Mirra Andreeva
Analysis: Defending champion Aryna Sabalenka has received a rather favorable draw in the early rounds. She will face a qualifier in the first round and the likes of Lesia Tsurenko, Aliaksandra Sasnovich and Ana Bogdan are all players she can defeat.
The Belarusian should make it to the fourth round and there she would likely face Liudmila Samsonova, although the likes of Paula Badosa and Donna Vekic should not be written off. Sabalenka has produced some fine tennis since the start of 2023 and she should be able to reach the Australian Open quarterfinals without much trouble.
The other side of the quarter features Ons Jabeur and Barbora Krejcikova. While the likes of Mirra Andreeva and Ekaterina Alexandrova are capable of deep runs, the battle for the quarterfinal spot will most likely come down to Jabeur and Krejcikova.
Jabeur will be eager to win a Grand Slam in 2024 after her Wimbledon final disappointment last year, and she will be favored to beat Krejcikova, especially if she is operating at her best.
The Tunisian would thus likely face Sabalenka in the quarterfinals. While Jabeur is capable of some great tennis on hardcourts, the Belarusian has had some terrific results in Melbourne and should manage to just about pip her and reach the semifinals.
Quarterfinal Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka def. Ons Jabeur
Australian Open 2024 semifinal & final predictions
The first semifinal at the 2024 Australian Open is expected to be between Elena Rybakina and Jelena Ostapenko. The two locked horns in the quarterfinals last year, with the Kazakh coming out on top.
We could see a similar result in 2024 if the matchup happens again, given Rybakina's current run of form and famed composure on court.
Predicted Winner: Elena Rybakina def. Jelena Ostapenko
The second semifinal is expected to be a rematch of the US Open final between Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff. The American looks in very good touch at the moment and is more than capable of giving the Belarusian a run for her money. However, if Sabalenka can maintain her aggression without making too many mistakes, there is a good chance she reaches a second successive Australian Open final.
Predicted Winner: Aryna Sabalenka def. Coco Gauff
The 2024 title clash at the Melbourne Major could be the same as 2023, and at her best, Rybakina should be able to defeat Sabalenka. If the former Wimbledon champ holds her nerve throughout the match, she could well leave Australia with a second Grand Slam title.
Final Prediction: Elena Rybakina def. Aryna Sabalenka.