BNP Paribas Open 2023: Aryna Sabalenka vs Barbora Krejcikova preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick
Match details
Fixture: (2) Aryna Sabalenka vs (16) Barbora Krejcikova
Date: March 14, 2023
Tournament: BNP Paribas Open
Round: Fourth round (Round of 16)
Venue: Indian Wells, California, USA
Category: WTA 1000
Surface: Outdoor hardcourt
Prize money: $8,800,000
Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel/TC Plus | UK - Amazon Prime Video
Aryna Sabalenka vs Barbora Krejcikova preview
In a face-off between two Grand Slam champions, second seed Aryna Sabalenka will lock horns with 16th seed Barbora Krejcikova in the Round of 16 of the BNP Paribas Open on Tuesday, March 14.
Sabalenka started the 2023 season in thunderous fashion, winning back-to-back titles at the Adelaide International 1 and the Australian Open. The seemingly unbeatable Belarusian even added a couple of wins thereafter to reach the quarter-finals in Dubai.
This was where she met 2022 French Open winner Barbora Krejcikova, who bounced back from a first-set bagel to complete an incredible 0-6, 7-6(2), 6-1 comeback victory. The result snapped Sabalenka's 13-match winning streak.
The World No. 2 has now returned to winning ways in Indian Wells with a 6-2, 6-0 demolition of Evgeniya Rodina. However, her next opponent, Lesia Tsurenko, withdrew from their clash due to personal reasons.
Barbora Krejcikova, meanwhile, has blown hot and cold so far in 2023. Her run to the last 16 at the Australian Open was the biggest highlight in her first four tournaments of the season.
It was, however, in Dubai, where the World No. 16 bounced back in style. Krejcikova won six matches in a row, with three of her victims being the world's top three players — Iga Swiatek, Sabalenka, and Jessica Pegula — to clinch the WTA 1000 event.
Krejcikova has continued her sterling form in the Californian desert. She easily dispatched Dayana Yastremska before grinding out a 6-2, 6-7(1), 6-2 win over Wang Xinyu.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Barbora Krejcikova head-to-head
Sabalenka leads Krejcikova 2-1 in the head-to-head. Two out of their three matches have gone the distance in what has been a competitive rivalry so far.
Sabalenka won their first meeting in three sets at Linz in 2020 before thrashing the Czech in straight sets at the US Open the very next year.
Krejcikova won their most recent showdown 0-6, 7-6(2), 6-1 in Dubai last month.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Barbora Krejcikova odds
(Odds sourced from oddschecker.com)
Aryna Sabalenka vs Barbora Krejcikova prediction
With their Dubai encounter having gone the distance less than a month ago, Sabalenka and Krejcikova's Indian Wells rematch has the potential to be a thriller.
The heavy conditions in the desert, though, tilt the balance slightly in favor of the Czech athlete. Krejcikova's patient point construction and excellent movement are likely to come in handy in this match. The World No. 16 is fantastic at converting defense to offense and her deft touch at the net is an added bonus.
With Sabalenka's footwork not being the quickest, the hard-hitting Belarusian could struggle on the slower courts at Indian Wells against her opponent's variety.
That said, Krejcikova's second serve continues to remain a concern. In her last match against Xinyu, the Czech coughed up as many as 10 double faults. A repeat of that could prove to be costly against a relentless ball striker like Sabalenka.
However, if the former French Open winner can improve her serving numbers, she should have the edge in this contest. While the gritty Krejcikova is already battle-tested, Sabalenka hasn't had to exert herself much so far and that could make the difference between the two under pressure.
Pick: Barbora Krejcikova to win in three sets.