BNP Paribas Open 2023: Aryna Sabalenka vs Lesia Tsurenko preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick
Match details
Fixture: (2) Aryna Sabalenka vs Lesia Tsurenko
Date: March 12, 2023
Tournament: BNP Paribas Open
Round: Third round (Round of 32)
Venue: Indian Wells, California, USA
Category: WTA 1000
Surface: Outdoor hardcourt
Prize money: $8,800,000
Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel/TC Plus | UK - Amazon Prime Video
Aryna Sabalenka vs Lesia Tsurenko preview
Second seed Aryna Sabalenka will take on Ukrainian veteran Lesia Tsurenko in the third round of the BNP Paribas Open on Sunday.
Interestingly, they met at the exact same stage in Indian Wells four years ago. Sabalenka came through that contest in straight sets and will look for an encore this time around.
The World No. 2 has had a spectacular season so far, winning her maiden Grand Slam title at the Australian Open. She also added the Adelaide International 1 title to her kitty.
Her only loss so far has come in Dubai, where eventual champion Barbora Krejcikova snapped her 13-match winning streak in the quarterfinals.
The 24-year-old began her quest for the Indian Wells title on Friday with a commanding 6-2, 6-0 victory over Evgeniya Rodina.
Lesia Tsurenko, meanwhile, has been a US Open quarterfinalist who reached a career-high world ranking of 23 in 2019. The 33-year-old has four singles titles under her belt.
Now ranked 95th, the Ukrainian began the season with a run to the semifinals of the ITF $60,000 event in Canberra. Although she lost in the first round of the Australian Open after qualifying, she rebounded strongly soon after with a runner-up finish at the WTA 250 event in Thailand.
At both Merida and Monterrey, Tsurenko had to retire in the first round of the main draw after having qualified.
Tsurenko, however, has had a brilliant campaign so far in Indian Wells this week. She won two rounds in qualifying, then knocked out Lin Zhu and 29th seed Donna Vekic to set up the Sabalenka meeting.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Lesia Tsurenko head-to-head
Sabalenka and Tsurenko are tied at 1-1 in their head-to-head, having evenly split their two meetings so far. While Tsurenko thrashed Sabalenka 6-1, 6-1 at Hobart in 2018, the Belarusian turned the tables on Tsurenko at Indian Wells the following year with a 6-2, 7-5 win.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Lesia Tsurenko odds
(Odds sourced from oddschecker.com)
Aryna Sabalenka vs Lesia Tsurenko prediction
Sabalenka comes into this duel as the heavy favorite, given her credentials. One of the hardest-hitters on the tour, she is currently playing some of the best tennis of her life.
The Belarusian seems to have finally learned a way to restrain her explosive power and cut down on unforced errors. Her patience and improved footwork have paid rich dividends this season.
Sabalenka, however, will have to do more on breakpoint conversion in her upcoming match. Against Rodina in her previous round, she managed to convert only five out of 12 opportunities.
Tsurenko will be a bigger threat with her aggressive hitting. She likes to dictate the proceedings using her backhand as the major weapon of destruction. Sabalenka needs to target her slightly weaker forehand wing and ensure she doesn't get to settle into a comfort zone.
If she can keep the pressure going on Tsurenko's serve right from the start, there's every chance the Ukrainian could give away free points through errors.
Pick: Aryna Sabalenka to win in straight sets.