Indian Wells final preview: Re-plotting the finer lines in the Federer-Djokovic rivalry

Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic

So here we have it. A high stakes final at the BNP Paribas Open featuring Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic, less than a month after they met each other for the first time this season at Dubai.

That final was a watershed moment, not just for Federer who found his winning mojo back, but also for Djokovic, who looked completely different to the man of last year – the man who was near-invincible as the season drew to a close. The bouts of uncertainties that crept into Djokovic’s game against Federer in the Dubai final were quite uncommon and they raised innumerable questions about direction the Serb’s game was going.

Reaching the final at Indian Wells however has done a lot of good for Djokovic in terms of answering those pestilent questions. Though his run to the final hasn’t exactly been convincing, through his first five matches here he has displayed a brand of tenacity that has been long synonymous with him. The question however remains whether this doggedness will be enough for him to stop the composed Federer in his tracks.

Strengths

Roger Federer: The Swiss has generated plenty of buzz through each of his matches leading to the finals. The much-talked about bigger racquet-head has been clearly helping him, but more than anything else, the aura of self-belief that seemed to be missing for most parts of his season last year has re-emerged to revitalise him and his game.

He’s been able to play his natural game and display his natural athleticism that seemed to have been affected last year thanks to his sore back. This has further added to his confidence level and as such, whenever Federer has been troubled by his opponents, he’s been able to withstand the onslaught and impose his superiority without missing a beat.

He’s been serving well, racking a decently healthy percentage of points both on his first and second serve. His shot selection has been spectacular, eliciting comments that his form is returning to the kind that he enjoyed in his peak years. Against a visibly struggling Djokovic, he could build a head of steam early on that could give him even more confidence, and lead to even better stroke-making. Most importantly, he’s moving well and has been able to get through seemingly difficult points with the least possible hindrance.

Novak Djokovic: The biggest strength for Djokovic in this tournament has been the fact that he has hung through difficult games and has managed to make it through till the end. His tough three-set matches in the third round, fourth round and semi-finals have proved that he can still find the form that helped him finish the previous season so strongly, and this should be a huge boost for Djokovic as far as self-motivation levels go.

While his shots have failed to click at certain times, he has been well able to channel his energies to ward off his opponents, which has contributed to him getting past tricky opponents. His serve too has been effective which will undoubtedly help him keep Federer on his heels in the final.

Weaknesses

Roger Federer: Except for a couple of matches, Federer hasn’t been tested much in the tournament. Though this by itself isn’t a weakness as such, it remains to be seen whether Federer will be able to sustain his momentum over the course of three prolonged sets, especially against Djokovic with whom he has quite a peppy rivalry going.

Novak Djokovic: Fatigue will be an issue for Djokovic to contend with considering that he’s been the one who’s played back-to-back matches. Moreover, he has had three matches that have gone the distance and despite the fact that he was able to turn the result in his favour, he wasn’t able to build the pressure on his opponent right from the get go. Djokovic can’t afford to play the same kind of game and expect to come out as the winner against Federer.

Key Points

Roger Federer: The biggest factor going in Roger Federer’s favour is the confidence he gained from his Dubai triumph; he knows that he can win against Djokovic. He has been mixing his shots well and will be expected to do the same in the final, making the Serb constantly second-guess his intentions as regards shot placement. Though Djokovic is definitely a different kettle of fish as compared to Federer’s opponents so far in the tournament, it can be expected that Federer won’t want to try anything adventurous but would rather focus on those areas which have yielded him positive results.

Novak Djokovic: Djokovic’s game ability to transition from defence to offence is incomparable. Against Federer, he will have to find the perfect balance between defence and offence, thereby displacing Federer’s rhythm. Rather than allow Federer to make inroads into the net and give him opportunities to gain an upper hand, Djokovic will need to make the first onslaught by approaching the net so as to retain control over the match proceedings.

Prediction

Roger Federer to win in three sets