Breaking down the women's draw - Can anyone stop Serena Williams?
It seems like just yesterday that we were watching Wimbledon and the Olympics, but the final Grand Slam of the year, the U.S. Open is already upon us. The event has a very American feel to it – from the fans to the setting to the airplanes above the grounds. If you’ve followed the women’s circuit closely over the last few months, it is hard to look beyond Serena Williams as the potential champion. But upsets happen, players run out of form or in Serena’s case, out of patience. So let’s break down the draw and see who could emerge as possible contenders for the title at Flushing Meadows.
First Quarter
Victoria Azarenka has to be given credit for bringing some stability back to the world no. 1 ranking. Hardcourts are her favourite surface and she comes into the Open this year with a Grand Slam title under her belt. The Belarusian has never gotten past the fourth round in 7 previous appearances in New York but if she manages to avoid one of her customary niggling injuries, there is a good chance she will break that barrier in 2012. Azarenka’s first big test could come in the third round against Jie Zheng. The 28th seeded Chinese has been to the semi-finals of a Grand Slam twice before and on her day can match any player stroke for stroke. Should Azarenka get past Zheng (I believe she would), she could meet the big serving German Sabine Lisicki in round four. Like Azarenka, Lisicki also has a history of a frail body but when that serve is on, she is hard to play against.
Azarenka’s scheduled quarter-final opponent is the defending champion Samantha Stosur. The Australian got the Grand Slam monkey off her back in New York 12 months ago with that memorable win over Serena. But instead of freeing her up to play great tennis, she seems burdened by the expectations that come with it. Stosur has not won a title this year and been to only one final, and if she wants to keep her date with Azarenka in the quarters, Stosur would need to first beat either three-time champion Kim Clijsters or ninth seed Li Na in the fourth round. Clijsters will retire after this event and though she has played seldomly in the last 12 months, she is capable of coming in cold and running in hot as she showed a few years ago. Li Na comes into New York having won 9 of her last 10 matches since hooking up with Justine Henin’s former coach Carlos Rodriguez. With a new coach and newfound confidence, Li Na could be ready for another deep run at a Slam.
First round matches to watch out for - Li Na vs British youngster Heather Watson
Upset Alert - Romanian beauty Sorana Cirstea to upset 16th seed Sabine Lisicki
Players to watch out for - Australian left hander Casey Dellacqua (semi finalist in Dalls this week) and British teenager Laura Robson
Predicted Quarter Final – Victoria Azarenka vs. Li Na – Li Na to win
Second Quarter
Until last month, Petra Kvitova had never won a tournament in North America. The warm sunny conditions did not help her asthma problems. But Kvitova comes into New York as the winner of the US Open Series on the basis of a title on Montreal and another possible title this weekend in New Haven. As the winner of the US Open Series, Kvitova has a chance to win a $1 million bonus prize money check if she triumphs in New York. The Czech left hander should be able to get past her first few rounds but could face resistance in the fourth round from Frenchwoman Marion Bartoli. The 11th seeded Frenchwoman has not been in good form of late but her two handed groundstrokes and competitive spirit make her a tough opponent on any day.
On the other side of this quarter is Russian Maria Sharapova, one of three players with a chance to end the US Open as world no. 1. The third seeded Russian won the French Open this year – her first Slam post shoulder surgery – to complete a career Slam and also reached the finals at the Olympics. With a 44-7 record in 2012, Sharapova is one of the main contenders for Player of the Year honours along with Azarenka and Serena. A second Slam title in 2012 for either of the three should seal the deal for them. The Russian’s biggest obstacle could be her own serve and nerve – with the seeds in her section no. 15 Lucie Safarova, no. 9 Nadia Petrova and no. 27 Anabel Medina Garrigues unlikley to beat her when Sharapova’s game is on.
First round matches to watch out for - Lucie Safarova vs. American Melanie Oudin
Upset Alert - Daniela Hantuchova to upset 17th seed Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
Players to watch out for - German Andrea Petkovic who is on the comeback road and Canadian Aleksandra Wozniak
Predicted Quarter Final – Maria Sharapova vs. Petra Kvitova – Sharapova to win
Third Quarter
We could end the analysis of this quarter with just Serena Williams’ name. But let’s go through the motions anyways. At no. 4, Serena is the highest seed in this quarter. 12 months into her comeback from pulmonary embolism, Serena is the dominating player in women’s tennis once again even though the rankings don’t say so. Her focus and competitive spirit is as good as before and her serve even better. Still Serena is capable of having her off days like she did in Paris where she was beaten by Virgine Razzano in the first round. She should be able to negotiate past the seeds in her quarter (no. 14 Maria Kirilenko, no. 24 Klara Zakaplova and no. 32 Shuai Peng) where she could run into another former world no. 1 Caroline Wozniacki.
The sun has not been shining much on the Dane this year. Wozniacki was no. 1 in January but she is now down to no. 8. She has not won a title in more than 12 months after she failed to defend her title in New Haven this week where she also sustained a knee injury. Wozniacki has also been working with a new coach Thomas Johansson over the past few months but the results are yet to show. Still, if she recovers from her injury, she should be able to reach the 4th round where Ana Ivanovic or Francesca Schiavone could be waiting for her. Every time Ivanovic begins to build some momentum, the Serb suffers a niggling injury or a heavy defeat like she did a few weeks ago in Montreal when she lost to Italy’s Roberta Vinci 0-6, 0-6 and it’s unlikely the Serb will challenge for major titles in this sort of form.
First round matches to watch out for – Baseline basher Mirjana Lucic vs fellow veteran and quriky specialist Maria Jose Sanchez Martinez
Upset Alert – American teenager Sloane Stephens to upset 22nd seed Francesca Schiavone. For those unfamiliar with Stephens, she is one to watch out for in the future. At 18 years and inside the top 50 already, Stephens game and personality are about as pleasant as they come
Players to watch out for – The mother of all veterans Kimiko Date-Krumm (wouldn’t it be great of she could pull off a 1991-Jimmy Connors kinda run to the second week)
Predicted Quarter Final – Serena Williams vs. Sloane Stephens – Serena to win
Fourth Quarter
This section is led by Poland’s Agnieszka Radwanska. The Pole reached her first Grand Slam final at Wimbledon and has a chance to walk away from New York with the world no. 1 ranking. A shoulder injury she sustained in New Haven coupled with indifferent form over the past few weeks has taken off some of the sheen and Radwanska could be marked for an early exit in New York. Besides her shoulder, her other big test could come in the shape of Jelena Jankovic, who has had an awful year but comes into the Open having reached the finals in Texas. Should Radwanska survive the Serb, she could run into pocket-sized dynamite Dominika Cibulkova in the last 16.
Leading the opposite side of this section is German Angelique Kerber, who has won more matches than anyone else in tour this year. Kerber was ranked outside the top 100 last year at this time when she reached the semi finals in New York and she has not looked back since. Now comes her first test of the pressure to defend points. A second round showdwon against former two-time champion Venus Williams will be one to watch out for. Venus will have the crowd firmly in her square as she hopes to make another deep run at her home event. Learnig to come to terms with Sjorgen’s Syndrome, Venus has shown in recent weeks that she is still capable of hanging in there with the best. Other seeds in this section include no. 10 Sara Errani, no. 21 Christina McHale and no. 29 Tamira Paszek.
First round matches to watch out for - Venus Williams vs. Bethanie Mattek-Sands for the tennis and the fashion; doubles partners Vania King and Yaroslava Shvedova face off in the singles this time
Upset Alert - Spanish teenager Gabrine Muguruza to upset no. 10 seed Sara Errani
Players to watch out for - Hunagrian teenager Timea Babos and Agnieszka’s younger sister Urszula
Predicted Quarter Final – Angelique Kerber vs. Yaroslava Shvedova – Kerber to win
Semi Final Predictions – Serena Williams to beat Angelique Kerber; Li Na to beat Maria Sharapova
Final Prediction – Serena Williams to beat Li Na