Can a member of tennis's 'NextGen' win a Grand Slam in 2020?
Despite Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic winning all of the Grand Slams in 2019, the season ended with NextGen star Stefanos Tsitsipas winning the ATP Finals. The final did not feature any of the 'Big 3', making many wonder whether it signaled the changing of the guard.
However, we need to remember that at the end of the 2018 season, Alexander Zverev defeated Djokovic and Roger Federer en route to his triumph at the ATP Finals, and that made no dent in the Big 3's domination of the Slams.
It would therefore be wrong to over-emphasize the significance of Tsitsipas's victory. With the 2020 season slowly approaching, what are the chances that Tsitsipas and the rest of the NextGen weaken the stranglehold that Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic have over the Majors?
Let's take the Australian Open first, which has been the preserve of Federer and Djokovic over the last decade
The courts in Melbourne are the fastest of the four Grand Slams, especially when compared to the excruciatingly slow French and US Open. That bodes well for a number of the NextGen stars - players like Zverev, Tsitsipas, Nick Kyrgios and others centre their games on hitting big and quick from the baseline.
Djokovic and Nadal both play grinding counterpunching tennis, and should any of these young players be able to overwhelm their defences with their baseline hitting, then they have a real chance of making an impact - whether by winning the tournament itself or paving the way for one of their young contemporaries.
Furthermore, with Federer now 38, there are serious questions as to whether he still possesses the stamina to go toe-to-toe with the younger players. Whilst he has shown resilience against them, he has sometimes been vulnerable to their powerful tennis.
The French Open is Nadal's kingdom; apart from maybe Dominic Thiem, no other player seems to have any chance of winning there. Thiem of course isn't a NextGen player anymore, but he is the only one among the players outside Big 3 whose game seems good enough to challenge Nadal on the red dirt.
The slow, spinny surface is ideal for the Spaniard as he can negate virtually all forms of attacking tennis. He has won the last three French Opens on the trot and he doesn't look like he is willing to relinquish this reign just yet.
Wimbledon, however, could be a good opportunity for a NextGen triumph. It is the most competitive surface on the tour and comes at the midway point of the year, when everyone is in full motor.
Although Djokovic and Federer will be tough to beat there, the power tennis of the players previously listed could make a real dent in their armor.
There have been moments in the past where the NextGen have made strides at Wimbledon; Kyrgios's demolition of Nadal in 2014 immediately comes to mind here. None of them has reached a semifinal or final here though, and that could be about to change in 2020.
Finally, we have the US Open, a tournament that comes at the tail end of the tour - where many players are exhausted or even injured after the busy summer period. NextGen player Daniil Medvedev almost defeated Nadal last year, but his inexperience got the better of him and he ultimately lost to the Spaniard.
The courts in New York have been slow in recent years, which does not favour strong attacking tennis. And that does not bode too well for the bulk of the NextGen, who are predominantly tall power players.
At this stage it seems there would have to be a significant change in the court speed for them to have a chance of breaking the shackles.
Can the NextGen players form a genuine challenge to the dominance of Federer, Nadal and Djokovic in 2020? Possibly. They failed to make any real impact in 2019 on the Grand Slam stage despite their successes in some of the other big tournaments, but it seems as though the turning of the tide may have finally begun.
Federer, Nadal and Djokovic are the three greatest players in history and will not go down easily, despite time being against them. For the good of the sport, however, the younger generation needs to step up - even if it comes at the cost of the 'Big 3'.