Can Jessica Pegula cause a major upset against Aryna Sabalenka in the US Open 2024 final? What the bookies have to say
World No. 6 Jessica Pegula is through to her first Grand Slam final in the US Open this year. She outmuscled Karolina Muchova in a fascinating three-set encounter in the previous round 1-6, 6-4, 6-2. The New York crowd will no doubt be pleased to witness the Buffalo-born tennis professional in the title decider. She made her Grand Slam debut in the 2015 US Open and is now one win away from claiming the biggest prize of her career at the same event.
Pegula will take on second seed Aryna Sabalenka in the final on Saturday. The Belarussian is unbeaten in her last 11 matches on tour and has been in devastating form so far.
Let's take a look at how the two are shaping up against each other ahead of the title decider.
World No. 2 Sabalenka entered New York on the back of a remarkable title triumph in Cincinnati. She continued her rich vein of form in New York and started her campaign by cruising past Priscilla Hon and Lucia Bronzetti in the first two rounds. She then outfoxed Ekaterina Alexandrova, Elise Mertens, Zheng Qinwen, and Emma Navarro en route to the finals. The 26-year-old has only dropped one set so far, against Ekaterina Alexadrova in the third round.
Pegula, ranked No. 6 in the world, also entered New York on the back of formidable results on the women's tour. She captured her second title of the season last month in Toronto and then secured a runner-up finish in Cincinnati. The American started her campaign in the US Open with confident wins over Shelby Rogers and Sofia Kenin in the first two rounds. She then overcame Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, Diana Schnaider, Iga Swiatek, and Karolina Muchova en route to the final. Pegula has registered 15 wins in her last 16 matches on tour.
With not a lot separating the duo in the last few weeks, who are the bookies favoring in the championship decider? Let's take a look.
Second seed Aryna Sabalenka is a 1:3 favorite to win the US Open this year and Jessica Pegula is the underdog at 14:5. A hefty $330 wager on Sabalenka will fetch $100 if she wins, plus the initial investment of $330. On the other hand, a mere $100 wager on Pegula is expected to fetch $250, plus the initial bet of $100.
It's no surprise that Sabalenka is the clear favorite to win the 2024 US Open. She's through to the finals in New York for the second time in the last two years and has performed brilliantly so far. Apart from her all-around game, the Belarusian has also recorded the fastest average forehand out of all men and women competing in the US Open (129km/h). The fast courts in New York allow her to exhibit her power and keep her opponents pinned on the back foot.
Pegula will need to think of a strategy that disrupts Sabalenka's rhythm and doesn't allow her to free her arms too often. The American has decent counter-punching skills from the baseline and has also found depth with her groundstrokes. She got out of jail following a poor start against Muchova in the semifinal and will need to be switched on from the word go in the final.
While Pegula will be competing in her first final at a Major on Saturday evening, Sabalenka has made three Major final appearances in the past. The Belarusian has won two out of those in Melbourne, garnering back-to-back titles in the Australian Open. She will hope to add a maiden US Open title to her list of accomplishments but will not only be up against Pegula but also the majority crowd in New York fully behind the local favorite. It will be interesting to see if the second seed can maintain her composure and go all the way in the final.
Aryna Sabalenka leads the head-to-head against Jessica Pegula 5-2
World No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka dominates the head-to-head battle against Jessica Pegula 5-2. She defeated the American most recently in the 2024 Cincinnati Open final 6-3, 7-5.
The two have met each other once at a Major in the past, with Sabalenka taking the win at the 2020 French Open. She defeated Pegula in straight sets in the first round 6-3, 6-1.
Their last three meetings have been on hard court, with Pegula managing to get over the line in the WTA Finals last year. It will be interesting to see if the American can present a stern challenge to the Belarusian again and take home her first Major title on Saturday.