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Canadian Open 2023: Jannik Sinner vs Tommy Paul preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds, and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (7) Jannik Sinner vs (12) Tommy Paul

Date: August 12, 2023

Tournament: Canadian Open 2023

Round: Semifinal

Venue: Toronto, Canada

Category: ATP Masters 1000

Surface: Hard

Prize money: $6,600,000

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | Canada - Sportsnet, TVA Sports | UK - Amazon Prime Video | India - Sony Liv


Jannik Sinner vs Tommy Paul preview

Jannik Sinner at the 2023 Wimbledon.
Jannik Sinner at the 2023 Wimbledon.

World No. 8 Jannik Sinner will take on Tommy Paul in the semifinals of the 2023 Canadian Open on Saturday.

Sinner defeated Matteo Berrettini in straight sets, following which he received a walkover from Andy Murray to reach the quarterfinals. Gael Monfils stood between him and a spot in the semifinals.

Neither player got close to a break point for most of the first set. Sinner finally had an opportunity at 5-4 and took it to claim the opener. Monfils had one foot out the door as he trailed 3-1 in the second set, but bagged five of the next six games to clinch the set.

Sinner secured an early break of serve to lead in the third set and remained ahead until the end of the match to win 6-4, 4-6, 6-3.

Paul scored wins over Diego Schwartzman, Francisco Cerundolo and Marcos Giron to set up a quarterfinal showdown against World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz. The American meant business right from the start as he snagged a break in the very first game of the match.

While Paul then failed to close out the opener at 5-2, he broke Alcaraz's serve in the next game to take the set. The Spaniard evened the match by capturing the second set.

The two were neck and neck at the start of the third set, but Paul went on a three-game run to go 5-2 up. This sealed the match in his favor and he knocked out Alcaraz from the tournament for the second year in a row by winning 6-3, 4-6, 6-3.


Jannik Sinner vs Tommy Paul head-to-head

The two have split their previous two meetings evenly to tie the head-to-head at 1-1. Paul claimed their last encounter at the 2022 Eastbourne International in three sets.


Jannik Sinner vs Tommy Paul odds

PlayerMoneylineHandicap BetsTotal Games
Jannik Sinner
-250
+1.5 (-700)
Over 22.5 (-110)
Tommy Paul
+200
-1.5 (+400)
Under 22.5 (-130)

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)


Jannik Sinner vs Tommy Paul prediction

Tommy Paul at the 2023 Canadian Open.
Tommy Paul at the 2023 Canadian Open.

Paul scored one of the biggest wins of his career by ousting Alcaraz. The American played a high level, constantly rushing his opponent by taking the ball early. Sinner was cruising to an easy win when Monfils raised his level, but the young Italian managed to get the job done in three sets.

Both of Paul and Sinner's previous matches have gone the distance, though this will be their first encounter on hardcourts. The two are capable ball-strikers, though the Italian is a slightly better server, which could tilt the proceedings in his favor.

Paul's gunning for a maiden appearance at the Masters 1000 level. If he buckles under pressure, it'll make things a lot easier for Sinner. However, if the American rises to the occasion, this could be another close battle. The Italian's prior experience at this stage could give him an edge, which could put him into the final.

Pick: Jannik Sinner to win in three sets.

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