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China Open 2023: Elena Rybakina vs Liudmila Samsonova preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds, and pick

Match details

Fixture: (5) Elena Rybakina vs Liudmila Samsonova

Date: October 7, 2023

Tournament: China Open 2023

Round: Semifinals

Venue: National Tennis Center, Beijing, China

Category: WTA 1000

Surface: Hard

Prize money: $8,127,389

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | Canada - TSN | UK - Amazon Prime Video


Elena Rybakina vs Liudmila Samsonova preview

Rybakina at the 2023 China Open.
Rybakina at the 2023 China Open.

Former Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina will face off against Liudmila Samsonova in the semifinals of the 2023 China Open on Saturday.

Rybakina ousted Qinwen Zheng, Tatjana Maria and Mirra Andreeva to set up a quarterfinal showdown against World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka. The Kazakh drew first blood in the opening set to go 2-1 up, but her opponent leveled the score immediately.

Neither refused to cede any ground during their service games for a while after that. Rybakina nabbed the decisive advantage in the 11th game as she converted her fifth break point opportunity to go 6-5 up. She then proceeded to serve out the set with ease in the following game.

After losing a close first set, Sabalenka was expected to put up more of a fight, but Rybakina had other plans. From 2-1 onwards, she reeled off five consecutive games to win the match 7-5, 6-2.

Samsonova, meanwhile, knocked out Alycia Parks, Petra Kvitova and Marta Kostyuk to make the last eight, where Jelena Ostapenko awaited her. The Russian raced to a 4-1 lead in the first set, but dropped the next couple of games after that.

Samsonova got back on track and nabbed the next two games to take the set. The second set was more straightforward, with the 24-year-old breaking Ostapenko's serve twice to score a 6-3, 6-2 victory.


Elena Rybakina vs Liudmila Samsonova head-to-head

Samsonova leads Rybakina 3-0 in the head-to-head. She won their previous encounter at the 2023 Canadian Open in three sets.


Elena Rybakina vs Liudmila Samsonova odds

PlayerMoneylineHandicap BetsTotal Games
Elena Rybakina
-200+1.5 (-500)Over 22.5 (-120)
Liudmila Samsonova
+155-1.5 (+310)Under 22.5 (-120)

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)


Elena Rybakina vs Liudmila Samsonova prediction

Liudmila Samsonova at the 2023 China Open.
Liudmila Samsonova at the 2023 China Open.

The serve made all the difference in Rybakina's match against Sabalenka. The Kazakh fired 12 aces, while her opponent could muster only four and coughed up eight double faults.

Samsonova gave Ostapenko a taste of her own medicine with some consistent and powerful shotmaking. The Russian also won a massive 91% of her first-serve points. She'll also be feeling quite confident of her odds against Rybakina given her perfect winning record in this rivalry.

However, their last match could've gone differently had Rybakina not been fatigued. Poor scheduling at the Canadian Open left her completely drained for her match against Samsonova and she paid the price.

The two are capable servers and excellent shotmakers. Both have done well this week and have dropped only one set so far.

It took Rybakina a while to figure out Sabalenka. After losing their first four matches, she has now won their last two. It's about time she made some headway in her rivalry against Samsonova as well.

Pick: Elena Rybakina to win in three sets.

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