China Open 2023 Final: Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick
Match Details
Fixture: (2) Daniil Medvedev vs (6) Jannik Sinner
Tournament: China Open 2023
Date: October 4, 2023
Match Timing: Not before 7:30 pm local time / 7:30 am ET / 5 pm IST / 11:30 am GMT
Round: Final
Venue: National Tennis Center, Beijing, China
Category: ATP 500
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $3,633,875
Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Amazon Prime | Canada - TSN
Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner preview
Second seed Daniil Medvedev will face sixth seed Jannik Sinner in the final of the China Open.
The Russian started the tournament with a 6-2, 6-1 win over Tommy Paul and followed it up by defeating Alex de Minaur 7-6 (3), 6-3 to reach the quarterfinals. Here, he faced Ugo Humbert and registered his very first win over the Frenchman, beating him 6-4, 3-6, 6-1.
Medvedev then faced eighth seed Alexander Zverev in the semifinals and made a solitary break in the final game of the first set to take it 6-4. He made another decisive break in the eighth game of the second set and eventually went on to win it 6-3 to book his place in the China Open final.
Jannik Sinner, meanwhile, started the ATP 500 tournament with a 6-4, 6-7 (2), 6-3 win over Dan Evans. He followed it up with a 6-2, 6-0 drubbing of Yoshihito Nishioka to reach the quarterfinals.
Here, the Italian was up against Grigor Dimitrov. He survived a scare against the Bulgarian to beat him 6-4, 3-6, 6-2 and set up a semifinal clash against top seed Carlos Alcaraz.
The first set of the match was tightly contested and went to a tiebreak, with Sinner winning 7-4 to take the lead in the match. He then dominated the second set and took it 6-1 to book his place in the China Open final.
Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner head-to-head
Medvedev leads 6-0 in the head-to-head against Sinner. Their most recent meeting came in the final of the Miami Open, which the Russian won 7-5, 6-3.
Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner odds
All odds are sourced from BETMGM.
Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner prediction
Medvedev's perfect record against Sinner along with his quality on hard courts makes him the favorite entering the match. However, the latter should not be written off as he could always produce the performance of his life to beat the Russian for the first time in his career.
Medvedev has produced decent numbers on his first serve at the China Open, serving 27 aces and winning 134 out of 176 points (76.1%). However, his second serve has been a little disappointing at times.
He has served 21 double-faults and simply cannot afford to do the same against Sinner. The World No. 3 has also hit 73 winners compared to just 33 unforced errors.
Medvedev's hard-court game is among the best in the world and it has always troubled Sinner. The former will have to produce his most effective performance in order to defeat the World No. 7.
Sinner has also done fairly well on his first serve so far in Beijing, winning 119 out of 170 points (70%), with 23 aces to his name. He also hit 87 winners while producing only 33 unforced errors.
Sinner will look to make the most of his aggressive baseline game and on-court movement. His serve has been quite impressive lately and he will be eager to fetch as many free points as he can.
Sinner will be high on confidence after defeating Alcaraz, but Medvedev's versatility could see him come out on top and win his sixth title of the 2023 season.
Pick: Daniil Medvedev to win in three sets.