China Open 2024: Andrey Rublev vs Pablo Carreno Busta preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds, and pick
Match Details
Fixture: (4) Andrey Rublev vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Date: TBA
Tournament: 2024 China Open
Round: First Round (Round of 32)
Venue: National Tennis Center, Beijing, China
Category: ATP 500
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $3,720,165
Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky UK | Canada - TSN | India - Tennis Channel
Andrey Rublev vs Pablo Carreno Busta preview
Fourth seed Andrey Rublev is slated to open his 2024 China Open campaign against former World No. 10 Pablo Carreno Busta in a highly anticipated first-round clash.
Rublev enters Beijing with a 37-18 match record for the season and has claimed two titles in Hong Kong and Madrid, where he defeated Emil Ruusuvuori and Felix Auger-Aliassime, respectively.
His performances in Grand Slams have been average, featuring a quarterfinal run in Melbourne, a third-round exit in Paris, a surprising first-round defeat at Wimbledon to Francisco Comesana, and another disappointing fourth-round loss at the US Open to Grigor Dimitrov.
Rublev's North American hardcourt swing was relatively successful; he reached the finals in Montreal, where he lost to Alexei Popyrin, and made it to the quarterfinals in both Washington and Cincinnati.
Carreno Busta, meanwhile, returned to the tour during the French Open this year after a more than a six-month hiatus due to rehabilitation for his elbow surgery. It was his first tournament back but he was sent packing in the first round by Mariano Navone despite winning the first set.
He registered his first win of the season in Montreal against Fabian Marozsan but lost to Holger Rune in the second round. In Cincinnati, he collected two more wins before his run was halted by Alexander Zverev. Carreno Busta impressed by reaching the semifinals in Winston-Salem but suffered a disappointing first-round defeat at the US Open to Arthur Cazaux the following week.
Carreno Busta most recently featured for Spain at the Davis Cup where he won his sole singles battle against Jordan Thompson of Australia.
Andrey Rublev vs Pablo Carreno Busta head-to-head
Andrey Rublev leads Pablo Carreno Busta 2-0 in their head-to-head. He won their previous encounter 4-6, 7-5, 6-1 in the semifinals of the Hamburg European Open back in 2019. He came back from a set down similarly in their first encounter too at the 2015 Miami Open.
Andrey Rublev vs Pablo Carreno Busta odds
(Odds sourced from BetMGM)
Andrey Rublev vs Pablo Carreno Busta prediction
Fans can expect a thrilling contest between Andrey Rublev and Pablo Carreno Busta in the first round in Beijing, with both players entering the match in similar form.
Rublev has had a season marked by ups and downs, primarily struggling with consistency. While he has the level to beat the best, he has often lacked the decisive punch needed to close out matches quickly. His unforced errors have also been a huge roadblock in his quest for bigger results.
Carreno Busta, meanwhile, appears to have settled back into the thick of things on the ATP tour and is on the path to regaining his best form. He has been improving with each match, particularly on serve and his baseline game. His net play has also seen significant improvement, yielding plenty of rewards so far this year.
Rublev enters this encounter as the favorite due to his superior career hardcourt record and head-to-head advantage. He has also played more matches on tour this season compared to Carreno Busta, who has participated in less than half the number. The slowness and ruggedness of the courts should also suit the Russian's game more.
While a tight match can be expected between the two, Rublev is anticipated to come out on top if he serves well and plays his usual attacking best.
Pick: Rublev in three sets.