China Open 2024: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick
Match Details
Fixture: (1) Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
Date: October 4, 2024
Tournament: 2024 China Open
Round: Quarterfinal
Venue: National Tennis Center, Beijing, China
Category: WTA 1000
Surface: Hardcourt
Prize Money: $8,955,610
Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN
Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova preview
Sabalenka will continue her quest for a maiden China Open title against Karolina Muchova in a titanic quarterfinal tussle on Friday, October 4.
Sabalenka began her Beijing campaign with a routine 6-4, 6-1 win over Thai qualifier Mananchaya Sawangkaew in the second round after receiving a first-round bye. She maintained that winning momentum against Ashlyn Krueger in the third round, sealing a comfortable 6-2, 6-2 victory.
Sabalenka faced her first real test in the fourth round against 18th seed Madison Keys. The pair traded early breaks in the first set but Sabalenka took control in the seventh game and served out the set soon after. She dominated from the baseline in the second set, breaking Keys early. Although Keys managed to break back and level the score, Sabalenka's flourish at the end saw her seal a 6-4, 6-3 victory.
Muchova, meanwhile, opened her campaign in Beijing with a commanding 6-1, 6-1 win over Anna Blinkova in the first round. She followed that with a 6-3, 6-1 victory over 30th seed and home favorite Yuan Yue in the second round, before brushing aside Jaqueline Cristian 6-1, 6-3 in the third round.
In the fourth round, Muchova faced Cristina Bucsa. She raced to an early lead with a break of serve in the first game. Another break in the fifth game secured the first set. The second set was even more one-sided with Muchova breaking Bucsa three times to complete a convincing 6-2, 6-0 win.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova head-to-head
Karolina Muchova leads Aryna Sabalenka 2-1 in their head-to-head record. Muchova won their last two encounters, including a comeback victory at the 2023 Cincinnati Open (6-7(4), 6-3, 6-2) and a win at Roland Garros the same year. Sabalenka claimed their first meeting in 2019 at the Zhuhai tournament.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova odds
(Odds sourced from BetMGM)
Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova prediction
A thrilling clash awaits fans in Beijing as Aryna Sabalenka and Karolina Muchova prepare to face off in the quarterfinals, with neither dropping a set so far this fortnight.
Fresh from her US Open triumph, Sabalenka has been in excellent form, particularly strong in second sets and pressure points. Her aggressive approach has led to plenty of unforced errors so far and will need to be curbed going forward. Muchova has continued on her remarkable comeback trail and has impressed with dominant performances in the Chinese capital. She’s only been broken twice and has been lethal from the baseline, complemented by her delicate net touch.
Sabalenka enters this match on a 15-match winning streak while Muchova has won 10 of her last 12. Though Muchova leads their head-to-head and has looked slightly more dominant this week, Sabalenka's improvement since their last encounter and superior track record of late gives her the edge in the contest.
While it promises to be a tight match, Sabalenka's brilliant hardcourt form and ability to handle crucial moments should see her take it in three sets.
Pick: Sabalenka to win in three sets.