China Open 2024 Draw: Jannik Sinner's projected path to the final ft. potential QF clash with Grigor Dimitrov and SF with Andrey Rublev
The men's draw of the China Open 2024 was revealed on Tuesday, September 24, and defending champion Jannik Sinner learned of his fate as well. He's in great form at the moment, having won his second Major title at the US Open a couple of weeks ago.
Sinner also won the Cincinnati Open prior to that, and is currently on a 12-match winning streak. He has amassed an impressive 55-5 record for the season, and has a good shot to end the season as the top-ranked player in the world as well.
Michael Chang and Novak Djokovic are the only two men to win back-to-back titles at the China Open. Sinner will aim to join their ranks, and here's who he will have to go through to successfully defend his China Open title:
R1 opponent - Nicolas Jarry
Sinner will commence his title defense against World No. 28 Jarry. The latter won their only prior encounter in straight sets at the Libema Open in 2019. He recently snapped his seven-match losing streak with a win over Lukas Klein at last week's Chengdu Open.
Jarry then lost to 179th ranked Alibek Kachmazov in straight sets. With a 17-19 record for the season, his form suggests that he's in no shape to handle Sinner, the best player on the tour, at the moment.
R2 opponent - Stan Wawrinka/Jan-Lennard Struff
Sinner will face the winner of the match between Struff and Wawrinka in the second round. The Swiss hasn't won a match on hardcourts this year, and has a 5-12 record for the season.
Struff is likely to be Sinner's adversary at this stage. However, the German's results on hardcourts have been disappointing this season. He has a 6-10 record on the surface, and has lost his last three matches on it as well.
Additionally, Struff has lost his last 11 matches against top 10 players on hardcourts, a streak which commenced four years ago. Furthermore, Sinner has beaten him thrice this year, once on each surface. The Italian is unlikely to face any adversity at this stage.
Possible QF opponent - Grigor Dimitrov
Dimitrov is most likely to be Sinner's quarterfinal opponent. The Bulgarian recently reached the quarterfinals of the US Open. The two met at this stage in Beijing last year as well, and the Italian emerged victorious after a three-set battle.
They've met twice since then, with both meetings taking place this year. Sinner beat Dimitrov 6-3, 6-1 in the Miami Open final, and then downed him in straight sets in the French Open quarterfinals as well.
After losing their very first encounter at the Italian Open 2020, Sinner hasn't lost to Dimitrov. He's likely to extend his winning record in this rivalry based on his current form.
Possible SF opponent - Andrey Rublev/Lorenzo Musetti
Sinner has lost only five times this year, and one of those losses has come at the hands of Rublev at the Canadian Open. The Russian has been a little streaky in recent months but has mostly performed at a decent level.
Sinner immediately avenged his loss to Rublev the following week at the Cincinnati Open. He leads him 6-3 in the head-to-head. Musetti has played some great tennis in recent months, and reached his third final of the season, all since June, at the Chengdu Open.
Sinner has won both of his previous matches against Musetti in straight sets. However, the latter is 2-10 against top 10 players on hardcourts in his career, and has lost his last eight matches against them. It's unlikely he'll stop the World No. 1 in his tracks here.
Possible Final opponent - Carlos Alcaraz/Daniil Medvedev
Alcaraz and Medvedev account for three of Sinner's five defeats this year. The Spaniard has beaten him twice this year, first at the Indian Wells Masters and then at the French Open. The Russian, meanwhile, brought an end to his Wimbledon campaign.
Sinner beat both of them en route to the China Open title last year. He ousted Alcaraz in the semifinals, and then beat Medvedev in the final. It also marked the first time that he won against his older rival, and snapped his six-match losing skid against him.
Sinner still trails their rivalry 6-7, though he has won six of their last seven matches. The Italian's quest for back-to-back titles in Beijing is challenging, though it's nothing that he can't handle based on his results this year.