China Open 2024 Final: Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds, and pick
Match Details
Fixture: (1) Jannik Sinner vs (2) Carlos Alcaraz
Date: October 2, 2024
Tournament: China Open 2024
Round: Final
Venue: National Tennis Center, Beijing, China
Category: ATP 500
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $3,720,165
Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN
Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz preview
Defending champion Jannik Sinner will lock horns with second seed Carlos Alcaraz in the China Open 2024 final on Wednesday, October 2.
Sinner's title defense was off to a rocky start as he needed to rally from a set down in the first couple of rounds to beat Nicolas Jarry and Roman Safiullin. Jiri Lehecka gave him a tough fight in the quarterfinals but he beat him 6-2, 7-6 (6). He then took on home favorite Bu Yunchaokete in the semifinals.
Sinner went on a three-game run in the middle of the first set to go 5-2 up. While he let go of two set points on his opponent's serve in the next game, he served out the set himself after that. Neither player managed to secure a break of serve in the second set, which led to a tie-break. The Italian outplayed Bu to register a 6-3, 7-6 (3) win.
Alcaraz commenced his run in Beijing with a 6-4, 6-4 win over Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. He played an even better match in the second round to down Tallon Griekspoor 6-1, 6-2. He beat Karen Khachanov 7-5, 6-2 to set up a semifinal showdown with Daniil Medvedev.
The Spaniard led by a break twice in the first set, only for Medvedev to level terms on both occasions. However, Alcaraz's persistence paid off and he nabbed the last three games of the set to take it.
A single break of serve in his favor handed Alcaraz the control of the second set. Medvedev served to stay in the match at 5-3, and while he was able to fend off three match points, he finally crumbled on the fourth as the 21-year-old secured a 7-5, 6-3 victory.
Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz head-to-head
Alcaraz leads Sinner 5-4 in the head-to-head. The Spaniard won their most recent encounter at this year's French Open in five sets.
Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz odds
(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)
Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz prediction
Alcaraz staged an impressive comeback from two sets to one down to beat Sinner in the French Open semifinals, their most recent tussle. He also overcame a one-set deficit in their other encounter this year at the Indian Wells Masters.
Alcaraz accounts for two of Sinner's five losses this year and is the only player to beat him twice. The latter has amassed a 59-5 record this season, of which 39-2 has been on hardcourts. He is also on a 15-match winning streak which began at the Cincinnati Open.
Alcaraz has a 22-4 record on hardcourts this season and is currently riding an eight-match winning streak. Unlike Sinner, he hasn't dropped a set all week in Beijing. He has won an average of 80 percent of his first serve points and has dropped his serve only thrice.
Sinner has similar stats as he has won around 79 percent of first-serve points on average and has lost serve three times across his four matches. He also has a 6-1 record against top-five opposition on hardcourts this year, while Alcaraz has won all three of his matches against them.
Neither player has tallied three consecutive wins over the other in this match-up. If the pattern holds, then this is the Italian's turn to win. He's also on a huge winning streak, so that's another point in his favor.
Sinner has been the man to beat this year. While Alcaraz has a good shot at securing a hat-trick of wins over his rival, the defending champion will start as the favorite to win the title.
Pick: Jannik Sinner to win in three sets.