China Open 2024 Women's final: Coco Gauff vs Karolina Muchova preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick
Match Details
Fixture: (4) Coco Gauff vs Karolina Muchova
Date: October 6, 2024
Tournament: China Open 2024
Round: Final
Venue: National Tennis Center, Beijing, China
Category: WTA 1000
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $8,955,610
Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN
Coco Gauff vs Karolina Muchova preview
Fourth seed Coco Gauff will take on Karolina Muchova in the final of the China Open on Sunday, October 6. Victory for the American will see her lift her second WTA 1000 singles title while Muchova will win her first title in that category if she comes out on top.
Gauff's form tapered a little as she entered the China Open after being unable to reach the quarterfinals in five successive tournaments, that included two Grand Slams, two WTA 1000 events and the Olympics. The American started strongly in Beijing and reached the fourth round after straight-set wins over Clara Burel and 26th seed Katie Boulter.
The next three matches saw the American recovering after losing the first set. She won the second set in her fourth-round match against Naomi Osaka and this was when the Japanese retired due to an injury. The American bounced back from a set down to beat Ukrainian qualifier Yuliia Starodubtseva 2-6, 6-2, 6-2 and set up a semifinal clash with 15th seed Paula Badosa.
The Spaniard won the first set and broke Gauff's serve in the opening game of the second. The World No. 6 saved a further four break points in the fifth game before winning four games on the trot to force the match into a decider. Coco Gauff dominated the final set to register a 4-6, 6-4, 6-2 win and reach her second WTA 1000 singles final.
Karolina Muchova missed a chunk of the 2024 WTA tour as she was recovering from a wrist surgery. The Czech made her return to action during the grass-court and her performances after Wimbledon have been impressive for the most part.
Muchova entered the China Open after a semifinal run at the US Open and was in sensational from the start of the WTA 1000 event. The 28-year-old dropped only 12 games as she bagged straight-set wins over Anna Blinkova, 30th seed Yuan Yue Jaqueline Cristian and Cristina Bucsa to reach the quarterfinals.
Here, she faced top seed Aryna Sabalenka and ended her 15-match winning streak. Muchova notched her third successive win over the Belarusian (7-6(5), 2-6, 6-4) to set up a semifinal clash against fifth seed and Olympic champion Zheng Qinwen.
The Czech produced a solitary set in each of the two sets to register a 6-3, 6-4 win and reach her second WTA 1000 final.
Coco Gauff vs Karolina Muchova head-to-head
The American has won both of her previous encounters against Muchova and leads their head-to-head 2-0. Their most recent encounter came in the semifinals of the 2023 US Open, with Gauff triumphing 6-4, 7-5.
Coco Gauff vs Karolina Muchova odds
All odds sourced from BETMGM.
Coco Gauff vs Karolina Muchova prediction
Gauff and Muchova will both play their first WTA 1000 final since their meeting in Cincinnati last year. The American came out on top on that instance but the Czech has beaten two top-five seeds to reach the final in Beijing, including Aryna Sabalenka. So, she should not be written off.
Gauff has a solid first serve that has fetched her 20 aces so far in Beijing. She has won 154 out of 206 points on it so far and will look to get as many free points as she can in the final. However, the American's second serve could do with some improvement, as she has also served 37 double faults, 22 of which came in her last two matches alone.
Gauff's aggression, agility and mentality will all be crucial if she is to come out on top against Muchova.
The Czech, like the American, has served 20 aces so far in the China Open (having played one match less) and has won 158 out of 208 points on her first serve. Her double-fault count of 12 is significantly lower compared to Gauff's 37.
Muchova loves to play agressively and she will look to do the same in the final. There is a lot of variety in her game and she can often break Gauff's intensity by disrupting the pace in rallies with her drop shots and slices. The Czech will also be high on morale after ousting two top players in Sabalenka and Zheng.
One might consider Coco Gauff to be the favorite based on her head-to-head record against Muchova. However, given the way the Czech has been playing lately, there is a fair chance of her beating another top-five seed in Beijing and winning her maiden WTA 1000 title.
Pick: Muchova to win in straight sets.