Cincinnati 2021: Men's draw analysis, preview & prediction | Western & Southern Open
The ATP tour moves from Canada to the USA this week, where the 2021 Cincinnati Masters is scheduled to start on 16 August. This is the first time since 2001 that no member of the Big 3 - Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, and Rafael Nadal - will be participating in the event.
With all three of them having withdrawn due to injury concerns, World No. 2 Daniil Medvedev will now spearhead the field. Stefanos Tsitsipas is the second seed, while Alexander Zverev, who makes his return to the tour after the Olympics, is seeded third.
Russia's Andrey Rublev is the fourth seed, while Wimbledon runner-up Matteo Berrettini occupies the fifth spot. Berrettini will be playing on tour for the first time since his defeat to Djokovic in the Wimbledon final.
Without further ado, let's take a look at how the draw is expected to unfold:
1st Quarter: Daniil Medvedev and Hubert Hurkacz once again on a collision course at the Cincinnati Masters
Seeded players: [1] Daniil Medvedev, [7] Pablo Carreno Busta, [9] Hubert Hurkacz, [13] Roberto Bautista Agut
Expected quarterfinal: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Analysis: Top seed Daniil Medvedev has been drawn to face Brandon Nakashima or Mackenzie McDonald in the second round. Both Nakashima and McDonald have been in good touch lately; the former finished as the runner-up in Los Cabos and Atlanta, and the latter reached the Washington final.
Medvedev's third-round opponent could be Alexander Bublik, who has been drawn to face a qualifier in his opener. If Bublik survives the first two rounds, he could set up his fourth meeting of the year with Medvedev.
But that is easier said than done, as Bublik's second-round opponent would be the winner of the clash between Grigor Dimitrov and Roberto Bautista Agut. Interestingly, both Dimitrov and Bautista Agut fell to Reilly Opelka at the Toronto Masters.
Dimitrov, the 2017 Cincinnati champion, leads the 2020 semifinalist Bautista Agut 3-1 in the head-to-head.
At the other end of the quarter lies ninth seed Hubert Hurkacz, who narrowly lost to Daniil Medvedev in the quarterfinals of the Toronto Masters. The Pole will face Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the first round.
Even though Davidovich Fokina lost in the first round at Toronto, he will enter this fixture full of confidence given he owns a 2-0 head-to-head record against Hurkaca. The winner of the Hurkacz-Davidovich Fokina clash could face two-time champion Andy Murray in the second round.
Hurkacz's third-round opponent could be seventh seed Pablo Carreno Busta, who will face either John Millman or Jan-Lennard Struff in the second round. Struff leads Millman 2-1 in the head-to-head.
Predicted quarterfinal: [7] Pablo Carreno Busta def. [1] Daniil Medvedev
Early round matches to watch out for: Brandon Nakashima vs Mackenzie McDonald, Grigor Dimitrov vs Roberto Bautista Agut, John Millman vs Jan-Lennard Struff.
2nd Quarter: Can Andrey Rublev & Denis Shapovalov rediscover their form?
Seeded players: [4] Andrey Rublev, [6] Denis Shapovalov, [11] Jannik Sinner, [14] Alex de Minaur
Expected quarterfinal: Andrey Rublev vs Denis Shapovalov
Analysis: Andrey Rublev's form is a big question mark coming into the Cincinnati Masters. The Russian lost in the first round at the Tokyo Olympics before falling to John Isner in the third round of the Toronto Masters.
At Cincinnati, Rublev has been drawn to face either countryman Aslan Karatsev or 2016 champion Marin Cilic in the second round. Karatsev and Cilic will be facing each other for the first time on tour; both players made early exits at the Toronto Masters.
Dusan Lajovic, meanwhile, will lock horns with Gael Monfils in the first round. Monfils had been in terrible form in the first half of the year but he seems to have finally found some semblance of form, reaching the Toronto quarterfinals.
Filip Krajinovic has been drawn to face 14th seed Alex de Minaur in the first round. De Minaur is on a three-match losing streak and will be keen to flip the script at the Cincinnati Masters, where he boasts of his joint best Masters 1000 result (3R in 2018).
One out of Lajovic, Monfils, Krajinovic and De Minaur could be Rublev's third-round opponent, if the Russian gets that far.
At the other end of this quarter, newly-crowned Citi Open champion Jannik Sinner will cross swords with Federico Delbonis in the first round. Sinner did lose his first match at the Toronto Masters but that was likely due to fatigue, given his immense workload in recent weeks.
Having gotten a week's worth of rest, Sinner will be raring to do well at Cincinnati. The Italian sensation could face John Isner or Cameron Norrie in the second round.
Norrie will be the slight favorite against Isner, given his recent successes over big servers (wins over Kyrgios and Fritz). Isner could also be a bit fatigued for this fixture, given he is into the Toronto semifinals at the time of writing.
Isner and Norrie have a 1-1 head-to-head record against each other.
Miomir Kecmanovic and Benoit Paire will also cross paths in the first round, with the winner set to take on Denis Shapovalov in the second round. A spectacular display of aggressive shot-making could await fans after that, as Shapovalov is projected to face Sinner in the third round.
Predicted quarterfinal: [11] Jannik Sinner def. [4] Andrey Rublev
Early round matches to watch out for: Aslan Karatsev vs Marin Cilic, John Isner vs Cameron Norrie
3rd Quarter: Olympic gold medalist Alexander Zverev leads the way
Seeded players: [3] Alexander Zverev, [8] Casper Ruud, [10] Diego Schwartzman, [15] David Goffin
Expected quarterfinal: Alexander Zverev vs Casper Ruud
Analysis: Casper Ruud, seeded eighth in Cincinnati, has received a bye in the first round. He has been drawn to face Reilly Opelka or a qualifier in the second.
Opelka is into the semifinals of the Toronto Masters at the time of writing.
Wildcard entrant Frances Tiafoe, meanwhile, takes on Ugo Humbert in the first round. The two have a 1-1 head-to-head record against each other. The winner of the Tiafoe-Humbert clash will face either Dan Evans or Diego Schwartzman in the second round, and possibly Ruud in the third.
Elsewhere, 2019 Cincinnati runner-up David Goffin will be making his first appearance on tour since injuring his ankle at the Halle Open. The Belgian has been drawn to face Guido Pella in the first round, against whom he boasts of a 4-1 head-to-head record.
Pella and Goffin last faced each other at the 2019 Cincinnati Masters, with the former winning in straight sets.
Fabio Fognini, meanwhile, will collide with Nikoloz Basilashvili for the first time on tour. Should he emerge unscathed, he will face the winner of the match between Goffin and Pella.
Third seed Alexander Zverev has received a bye in the first round and could face Lloyd Harris or a qualifier in the second round. Zverev's third-round opponent will be one of Goffin, Pella, Fognini and Basilashvili.
Predicted quarterfinal: [3] Alexander Zverev def. Ugo Humbert
Early round matches to watch out for: Frances Tiafoe vs Ugo Humbert, Fabio Fognini vs Nikoloz Basilashvili
4th Quarter: Stefanos Tsitsipas leads the way, Matteo Berrettini returns
Seeded players: [2] Stefanos Tsitsipas, [5] Matteo Berrettini, [12] Felix Auger-Aliassime, [16] Cristian Garin
Expected quarterfinal: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Matteo Berrettini
Analysis: Wimbledon runner-up Matteo Berrettini returns to the tour for the first time since his finals defeat to Novak Djokovic. Berrettini sustained a thigh injury at SW19, which forced him to pull out of the Tokyo Olympics.
The Italian has been handed a tricky draw at Cincinnati, with big-serving American Taylor Fritz potentially lying in wait in the second round. While Berrettini has been given a bye in the first round, Fritz will cross swords with Albert Ramos-Vinolas in his opener.
Fritz and Ramos-Vinolas have already faced each other twice this year. The American beat Ramos-Vinolas at the Australian Open, but the result was reversed at the Madrid Masters.
Russia's Karen Khachanov, meanwhile, has been drawn to lock horns with a qualifier in the first round. A potential second-round clash against Marton Fucsovics or Felix-Auger-Aliassime could be next for the reigning Olympic silver medalist, after which he could face Berrettini.
At the other end of this quarter, Cristian Garin and Lorenzo Sonego open their 2021 Cincinnati Masters campaigns against qualifiers before potentially facing each other in the second round. Home favorite Sebastian Korda, meanwhile, plays Laslo Djere in the first round, with a second-round match against Stefanos Tsitsipas looming large.
Given the form Tsitsipas has displayed at the Toronto Masters, where he is into the semifinals at the time of writing, Korda will have his task cut out. The Greek could face Garin or Sonego in the third round, assuming he beats Korda in the second.
Predicted quarterfinal: [2] Stefanos Tsitsipas def. Karen Khachannov
Early round matches to watch out for: Marton Fucsovics vs Felix Auger-Aliassime
Semifinal predictions
Pablo Carreno Busta def. Jannik Sinner
Alexander Zverev def. Stefanos Tsitsipas
Prediction for the final
Alexander Zverev def. Pablo Carreno Busta