Cincinnati 2021: Women's draw analysis, preview & prediction | Western & Southern Open
After the conclusion of the National Bank Open in Montreal, the women's tour will move to Cincinnati for the second WTA 1000 event of the US Open Series. And the world's top two players - Ashleigh Barty and Naomi Osaka - are returning to action for the first time since the Tokyo Olympics.
Barty and Osaka, the top two seeds, will be looking to bounce back after unexpectedly early exits from the Games. Aryna Sabalenka, who has reached the semifinals in Montreal this week, is the third seed, while Tokyo bronze medalist Elina Svitolina is seeded fourth.
Wimbledon runner-up Karolina Pliskova, 2020 French Open champion Iga Swiatek, former US Open champion Bianca Andreescu and two-time Major winner Garbine Muguruza round out the top eight seeds.
Main draw action kicks off on 16 August, with the final scheduled for 22 August. On that note, here's an in-depth look at how the draw might pan out:
1st quarter: Barbora Krejcikova, Victoria Azarenka and Garbine Muguruza looking to topple Ashleigh Barty
Top seeded players: [1] Ashleigh Barty, [8] Garbine Muguruza, [9] Barbora Krejcikova, [14] Victoria Azarenka
Expected quarterfinal: Ashleigh Barty vs Garbine Muguruza
Dark horse: Daria Kasatkina
Wimbledon champion Ashleigh Barty will look to put her shocking first-round defeat at the Olympics behind her and get down to business in Cincinnati. But it won't be easy for the World No. 1, as the first quarter of the draw has three other Grand Slam champions - Barbora Krejcikova, Victoria Azarenka and Garbine Muguruza.
Barty does have a chance to get an easy win under her belt and regain her confidence before facing the tougher assignments. The Aussie plays a qualifier in her opener, before a potential third-round meeting with defending champion Victoria Azarenka.
Azarenka is coming off a quarterfinal finish at Montreal, and could present a stiff challenge. But Barty has the variety and the power to disrupt Azarenka's rhythm; she would be looking to draw inspiration from her early-season form and do just that.
In the quarterfinals, Barty could face one of Krejcikova or Muguruza. But Krejcikova, the reigning French Open champion, faces Daria Kasatkina in her opener, while Muguruza is slated to meet the inconsistent but dangerous Sloane Stephens after a first-round bye.
Predicted quarterfinal: Ashleigh Barty def. Barbora Krejcikova
2nd quarter: Iga Swiatek, Ons Jabeur and Maria Sakkari aim to put Elina Svitolina to the test
Top seeded players: [4] Elina Svitolina, [6] Iga Swiatek, [11] Petra Kvitova, [13] Jennifer Brady
Expected quarterfinal: Elina Svitolina vs Iga Swiatek
Dark horse: Ons Jabeur
Fourth seed Elina Svitolina heads the second quarter of the draw, but will need to regroup after her second-round exit from Montreal. And if the Ukrainian was hoping to play herself into form at Cincinnati, she would have been left dismayed by her draw.
Following a first-round bye, Svitolina takes on the winner of the first-round match between World No. 18 Maria Sakkari and Wimbledon semifinalist Angelique Kerber. Svitolina faced Sakkari at the Olympics too, where she needed three sets to see off the spirited Greek.
The Tokyo Olympic bronze medalist's path won't get any easier even if she beats Sakkari (or Kerber). One of three talented players - 13th seed Jennifer Brady, Eastbourne champion Jelena Ostapenko and French Open semifinalist Tamara Zidansek - could be waiting for Svitolina in the third round.
With either Iga Swiatek or Ons Jabeur likely to be Svitolina's quarterfinal opponent, the Ukrainian seems to have a mountain to climb.
Swiatek herself has a tough job first up, as she could meet the tricky Ons Jabeur in the second round (after a first-round bye). The Pole succumbed to Jabeur in the fourth round at Wimbledon, and will be gunning for revenge this time around. But Jabeur is coming off a quarterfinal appearance at Montreal; the Tunisian is in a rich vein of form, and could be hard to stop unless fatigue creeps in.
11th seed Petra Kvitova is another big name in this section of the draw. The Czech has been struggling of late though, and could well go out to the big-hitting Madison Keys in the first round if she fails to find her rhythm.
Predicted quarterfinal: Iga Swiatek def. Maria Sakkari
3rd quarter: Aryna Sabalenka and Karolina Pliskova slated to meet in Wimbledon & Montreal rematch
Top seeded players: [3] Aryna Sabalenka, [5] Karolina Pliskova, [12] Simona Halep, [15] Elise Mertens
Expected quarterfinal: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Pliskova
Dark horse: Jessica Pegula
Aryna Sabalenka, who is still in contention for the Montreal title this week, will look to bring her sterling form to Cincinnati too. The Belarusian could begin her campaign with a second-round face-off against Paula Badosa (after a first-round bye).
15th seed Elise Mertens or World No. 20 Elena Rybakina could be standing in Sabalenka's way in the third round. But both Mertens and Rybakina have been highly inconsistent of late, and are coming off first-round defeats at Montreal.
Sabalenka is poised to meet fifth seed Karolina Pliskova after that, for what will be the third time in just over a month. The Czech edged Sabalenka in a thrilling Wimbledon semifinal, and at the time of writing, the two big hitters are slated to square off in the Montreal semifinals.
Pliskova, however, has a couple of dangers lurking in her section before the potential meeting with Sabalenka in Cincinnati. Montreal semifinalist Jessica Pegula and two-time Grand Slam champion Simona Halep are a couple of names that the Czech would need to be wary of.
Halep starts off against Magda Linette, before a possible meeting with Pegula. The winner of that match is projected to take on Pliskova in the third round.
Predicted quarterfinal: Aryna Sabalenka def. Karolina Pliskova
4th quarter: Naomi Osaka faced with Coco Gauff and Bianca Andreescu challenges
Top seeded players: [2] Naomi Osaka, [7] Bianca Andreescu, [10] Belinda Bencic, [16] Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
Expected quarterfinal: Naomi Osaka vs Bianca Andreescu
Dark horse: Coco Gauff
After an inexplicable collapse against Marketa Vondrousova at the Tokyo Olympics, Naomi Osaka returns to action in Cincinnati as she prepares to defend her US Open crown later this month. Osaka's comeback in Tokyo following a two-month break wasn't a successful one, and she would be hoping to get back into the groove quickly and start contending for the biggest titles again.
But the draw hasn't been kind to the Japanese in Cincinnati. She will likely start her campaign against the in-form Coco Gauff, who is coming in on the back of a quarterfinal finish at Montreal. Osaka was beaten convincingly by the rising teen at the Australian Open last year, and she would need to be at her best to avoid a repeat of that.
If the World No. 2 manages to navigate her way past Gauff, she could face Roland Garros runner-up Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the Round of 16. And seventh seed Bianca Andreescu might be lying in wait after that, in what would be a blockbuster battle between the last two US Open champions.
That said, Andreescu's path to the last eight is riddled with players who could spring an upset. Olympic champion Belinda Bencic, who begins her campaign against Marketa Vondrousova in the Tokyo final rematch, certainly has the potential to stop Andreescu in the third round.
But the Swiss herself might have to play Palermo and San Jose champion Danielle Collins in the second round, which could be a stern test for her.
Predicted quarterfinal: Danielle Collins def. Coco Gauff
Semifinal predictions
Iga Swiatek def. Ashleigh Barty
Aryna Sabalenka def. Danielle Collins
Prediction for the final
Aryna Sabalenka def. Iga Swiatek