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Cincinnati Open 2024 Final: Jessica Pegula vs Aryna Sabalenka preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (6) Jessica Pegula vs (3) Aryna Sabalenka

Date: Monday, August 19, 2024

Tournament: Cincinnati Open 2024

Round: Final

Venue: Lindner Family Tennis Center, Mason, Ohio, U.S.

Category: WTA 1000

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $3,211,715

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN+

Jessica Pegula vs Aryna Sabalenka preview

Jessica Pegula in action at the 2024 Cincinnati Open (Picture: Getty)
Jessica Pegula in action at the 2024 Cincinnati Open (Picture: Getty)

Jessica Pegula will lock horns with Aryna Sabalenka in a blockbuster final at the 2024 Cincinnati Open on Monday, August 19.

Pegula kicked off her campaign with a 5-7, 6-4, 6-2 comeback victory against Karolina Muchova in the second round, having received a bye in the first round. She then saw off compatriot Taylor Townsend 6-2, 6-3 in the third round and survived another three-set thriller against Leylah Fernandez in the quarterfinals, sealing a 7-5, 6-7 (1), 7-6 (3) win in front of a packed center court.

Up against a resurgent Paula Badosa in the semifinals, Pegula raced to a 4-0 lead. Those two breaks of serve proved to be enough as she went on to close out the set soon after. She once again broke Badosa early in the second set, but the Spaniard fought back to level the score. She even broke once more and went on to eventually seal the rain-interrupted set. But it was Pegula who came up trumps in the decider, winning the bigger points and eventually sealing a 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 victory.

Sabalenka, meanwhile, opened her Cincinnati campaign in the second round over Elisabetta Cocciaretto, having also received a bye in the first round. She registered a comfortable 6-3, 6-4 win. She then powered to a 7-5, 6-2 win against Elina Svitolina in the third round. Up against tenth seed Liudmila Samsonova in the quarterfinals, Sabalenka registered yet another comfortable 6-3, 6-2 victory.

Sabalenka took on arch-rival and top-seed Iga Swiatek in the semifinals. She dominated the first set from the back of the court, with one break of serve proving to be enough. She got off to another flyer in the second set, breaking Swiatek's serve in the third game. That break once again proved decisive as she went on to serve out an emphatic 6-3, 6-3 win.


Jessica Pegula vs Aryna Sabalenka head-to-head

Aryna Sabalenka leads Jessica Pegula 4-2 in their head-to-head. Pegula, however, won their previous encounter 6-4, 6-3 at the WTA Finals last year.

Jessica Pegula vs Aryna Sabalenka odds

PlayerMoneyline Handicap BetsTotal Games
Jessica Pegula +170-1.5 (+320)TBA
Aryna Sabalenka
-210+1.5 (-600)TBA

(Odds sourced from BetMGM)

Jessica Pegula vs Aryna Sabalenka prediction

Aryna Sabalenka in action at the 2024 Cincinnati Open (Picture: Getty)
Aryna Sabalenka in action at the 2024 Cincinnati Open (Picture: Getty)

Jessica Pegula entered Cincinnati on the back of a title-winning run at the Canadian Open. She has, however, been pushed the distance thrice already and has displayed signs of fatigue in a couple of her matches. Her play under pressure and from the back of the court, however, must be commended, given that it is playing a huge part in bringing her results.

Aryna Sabalenka, meanwhile, hasn't lifted a trophy since the start of the year in Melbourne and looks to be the favorite for this year's crown. She's been in blistering form all week and is yet to drop a set. Every department of her game has been rock solid and it is going to take a monumental effort to topple her.

Sabalenka might lead in her head-to-head against Pegula, but the American holds a 2-1 edge over the Belarusian on hard courts. She also thoroughly sent Sabalenka packing in their previous encounter and could quite well cause an upset. Sabalenka, on the other hand, is playing some of her best tennis and could seal the win if she continues in the same rich vein of form.

Pick: Sabalenka in three sets.

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