Davis Cup Finals 2024: Italy vs Australia ft. Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur preview, prediction & pick
Match Details
Fixture: Italy vs Australia
Date: November 23, 2024
Tournament: Davis Cup Finals 2024
Round: Semifinal
Venue: Martin Carpena Arena, Malaga, Spain
Category: Davis Cup
Surface: Hard (Indoor)
Prize Money: $2,678,571
Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - BBC | Canada - CBC, TVA | Spain - Movistar | Netherlands - Ziggo Sport
Italy vs Australia preview
Defending Champion Italy will face 28-time Davis Cup winners Australia in the 2024 Davis Cup semifinals. This will be a repeat of last year's final, when Italy won 2-0.
During the group stages, the Italians overcame the challenges of Brazil, Belgium, and the Netherlands. Matteo Berrettini was crucial for the Europeans, as the World No. 35 won all of his three matches against Joao Fonseca, Alexander Blocx, and Botic Van de Zandschulp. Elsewhere, Matteo Arnaldi won his singles match against Thiago Monteiro, and Flavio Cobolli won against Tallon Griekspoor, but lost to Zizou Bergs.
In the doubles, the duo of Andrea Vavassori and Simone Bolelli played all three ties. They only won their tie against the Belgian pair of Sander Gille and Joran Viligen. They lost to the Brazilian pair of Rafael Matos and Marcelo Melo, and the Dutch pair of Wesley Koolhof and Botic Van de Zandschulp.
In the knockouts stage, Italy squared off against Argentina in the quarterfinals. In the first singles, Francisco Cerundolo of the Argentine team got the better of Lorenzo Musetti, winning 6-4, 6-1.
In the second match, World No. 1 Jannik Sinner took the court for Italy and hammered Sebastian Baez, winning 6-2, 6-1. Later, Sinner teamed up with Matteo Berrettini and won the doubles against Maximo Gonzalez and Andres Molteni, winning 6-4, 7-5.
Australia came second in their group as they won their ties against France and the Czech Republic, but lost to Spain. In singles, the most successful player for them was Thanasi Kokkinakis, who won his ties against Arthur Fils, and Jakub Mensik. Alexei Popyrin was the other singles player won won his final match against Pedro Martinez.
Matthew Ebden and Jordan Thompson played all three doubles ties for Australia in the group stages. They won against Pierre Hughes-Herbert and Edouard Roger-Vasselin (France), and Jakub Mensik and Adama Pavlasek (Czech Republic). The duo, however, lost to the Spanish pair of Carlos Alacaraz and Marcel Granollers.
Australia faced off against the USA in the quarterfinals, the most successful team in Davis Cup history. In the first singles, Thanasi Kokkinakis played a great match against Ben Shelton, winning 6-1, 4-6, 7-6 (14). However, the United States bounced back as Taylor Fritz defeated Alex de Minaur 6-3, 6-4 to keep their semifinal hopes alive.
In the deciding doubles fixture, the pair of Matthew Ebden and Jordan Thompson defeated the pair of Tommy Paul and Ben Shelton, winning 6-4, 6-4 and sealing Australia's place in the semifinals for the third consecutive year.
Australia leads the overall head-to-head 8-5 against Italy but the latter triumphed the last time they met at the Davis Cup.
Let's look at some of the potential matchups of the upcoming semifinal tie (subject to change)
#1. Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur
Jannik Sinner entered the Davis Cup with a phenomenal 70-6 win/loss record behind him for the season and 8 titles. The Italian has been in tremendous form this year, ascending to No. 1 on the ATP rankings and securing the ranking till the end of the year.
Alex de Minaur entered the Davis Cup with a 47-19 record. The Australian reached three finals in the season, winning two titles.
De Minaur is yer to win against Jannik Sinner as the Italian has an 8-0 head-to-head against him. The two recently met at the ATP Finals in Turin, with Sinner registering a comfortable 6-3, 6-4 win.
#2. Matteo Berrettini vs Alexei Popyrin
Berrettini has a 30-12 record in 2024 so far. The Italian has improved his ranking to 35, after coming back from injury. The former World No. 6 has won three titles this season, all on clay.
Alexei Popyrin has had a breakthrough year in 2024. The Australian won his first big title, winning the Masters 1000 title at the Canadian Open, He also notched up a marquee victory against Novak Djokovic at the US Open.
Berrtteini has a 2-1 lead over Popyrin in the head-to-head, but the Australian won their most recent encounter at the indoor hard courts of the Paris Masters. This gives him a slight advantage in the upcoming tie.
#3. Jannik Sinner/ Matteo Berrettini vs Matthew Ebden/ Jordan Thompson
Jannik Sinner and Matteo Berrettini are not a set doubles team, but they did win the tie-deciding doubles against Ben Shelton and Tommy Paul in the quarterfinal against the USA team.
On the other hand, Matthew Ebden and Jordan Thompson are a more accomplished doubles team. Both of them have won big titles in doubles this year. While Ebden won the Australian Open, and Olympic gold, Thompson clinched the title at the US Open.
Being the more set team, the Australian pair will be the favorite going in this match against the Italian team.
Italy vs Australia odds
(Odds will be updated once available)
Italy vs Australia prediction
Given the form of Jannik Sinner and his record against de Minaur, the Italians could have an upper hand in this Davis Cup tie. However, Popyrin can defeat Berrettini on an indoor hard court, and take the tie to a doubles decider.
If the match goes to doubles, then Australia will have the upper hand as Ebden-Thompson are a considerably superior doubles pair compared to the Italian pair of Berrttini and Sinner. Hence, a lot could depend in the singles tie not featuring Jannik Sinner because if Italy are to reach the Davis Cup final again, they may have to wrap up the tie in the first two matches itself.
Pick- Australia to win 2-1