Do Iga Swiatek's poor results at Grand Slams compared to Aryna Sabalenka take away from her dominance as World No. 1?
Who can be considered a dominant force in tennis? Is it someone who goes back-to-back at Grand Slams? Sweeps opponents off the court on every surface? Or goes an entire season without flinching on the big stage? Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka have tried to answer that question for women’s tennis over the past three years.
Swiatek was handed 6-2, 6-4 drubbing at the US Open by Jessica Pegula in the quarterfinals. It was not as surprising a result as some would have you believe. The American has been the better hardcourt player for some time now and her flat groundstrokes are far too pacey on a quick New York court for the World No. 1.
The loss, however, does raise the question: Where does Iga Swiatek go from here on her quest for dominance? Even more so as the result comes in quick succession with her third-round Wimbledon exit. Her failure to win the Olympic gold at her beloved Roland Garros, a venue where she has otherwise been undefeated in the last three, just rubs salt in the wound.
Yes, Swiatek steamrolled through the 2022 season with a 37-match winning streak and has far more Grand Slam titles than any other name from her generation, but that also had something to do with her being a transition-era child of sorts.
Women’s tennis, in particular, has undergone significant shifts in terms of playing styles over the last few decades. From the Martina Navratilova serve-and-volley era to the Chris Evert counterpunching age to Venus and Serena Williams’ power-heavy two decades to today’s athleticism-heavy game, the tennis courts on the WTA Tour have seen it all.
But it has always taken one, or in some cases a few, standout players who disrupt the rhythm and norm of the day. Take Chris Evert for example. When she first burst onto the scene, no one was hitting the ball as hard as her or with two hands even on the backhand. Watching her play was a shock to most opponents, who were often bamboozled into submission.
And that’s what Swiatek was doing when she first rose to the top, being a disruptor. No other player was hitting the ball with as much topspin or had as much leg strength.
It was understandable for others, who were inspired by the likes of Venus and Serena, Maria Sharapova, Petra Kvitova, Victoria Azarenka, Ana Ivanovic for much of the 2010s, to hit flat and fast, to be frustrated when playing against Swiatek.
Things were going swimmingly for the Pole in her first big breakthrough year. She even won the US Open. But in the new tennis world, rich with data and analytics, others were catching up.
The answer was there. With her long take-backs and liking of that extra time on the ball, especially off that forehand, Swiatek could be pushed onto the backfoot using flat and hard-hitting. Now look at her losses this year, starting from the Australian Open: Linda Noskova, Anna Kalinskaya, Ekaterina Alexandrova, Elena Rybakina, Sabalenka, and now Pegula. What do they all have in common? Raw power and flat groundstrokes at their disposal.
Swiatek has not been past the quarterfinal stage at any Grand Slam other than the French Open in the last two years and is just not as intimidating as she was beginning to look after the 2022 US Open run. Sabalenka’s star, meanwhile, has been on the rise since.
Double fault woes to Double Slam joy, the rise of Aryna Sabalenka
At the back end of 2022, Aryna Sabalenka was hitting double-figure double faults in just about every match. The issue was costing her matches and that’s when she enlisted a biomechanical instructor to help fix the chinks.
After significant work, she returned to court as a renewed player at the start of the 2023 season. Her maiden Grand Slam title followed at the Australian Open. She has made the semifinal or better at five of the six Slams she has played since.
Here’s the thing though. Sabalenka’s claim to being the more dominant player does not lie in her victories alone, but in her losses too. Every Slam match that she has lost in the last two years has been memorable and never not gone into three sets.
Whether it's the French Open and Wimbledon semifinal losses against Karolina Muchova and Ons Jabeur, respectively, last year or the US Open final defeat to Coco Gauff, she was in a winning position each time. It took her opponent playing out of their skin to turn those matches around and things still went down to the wire.
Swiatek’s defeats, in contrast, have been tame by those standards. You could almost see them coming each time.
Going back to the earlier examples for a minute. Be it Chris Evert, Venus or Serena, it was their ability to adapt and evolve that helped them go from being 'disruptors' to 'dominators'.
Evert’s late success Down Under or at the US Open showed her willingness to look beyond her love for clay, while Venus and Serena also became better all-court players after being pushed into uncomfortable positions match after match by the polar opposites like Martina Hingis, Justine Henin, Angelique Kerber, Simona Halep and others.
Swiatek, unfortunately, has not shown the same eagerness to evolve. She wasn’t the best frontcourt player when she started and is still often a sitting duck in that part of the court. The lack of variety on her serve has made her predictable, she hardly varies the spin on her ball and that just allows players to settle into a rhythm after a certain point.
Sabalenka, meanwhile, continues to hone her skills. Her frontcourt game, with years of doubles experience under her belt, is underrated. The Belarusian is also hitting both the ‘T’ and wide serve with improved efficiency with every match. Most importantly, however, she has shown a willingness to learn from her losses.
When pitted against Swiatek or even Gauff, both antithesis to her brand of power-packed tennis, she came up short on a few big occasions. But she took those losses in her stride and is now more patient with the same opponents. The development that she has shown then has not only been limited to the serve and forehand but has also been mental.
Going back to the original question, who really is a “dominant force”? It is obviously someone who makes even the best feel uncomfortable on the court. And not just once or twice, but every time they step onto the court. And to be able to do that, a player has to keep evolving with the competition.
Swiatek’s stubborn baseline game often wins her the point. That same stubbornness, however, when it translates off the court into an unwillingness to try and do a few things differently spells doom.
The world around her is changing. She was the 'disruptor' well on her way to being crowned the 'dominant force' a couple of years ago but her competition has caught up to her, with Sabalenka leading the charge. The World No. 1 has the game needed to respond, but she will have to first accept the need to change.