Dubai Tennis Championships 2023: Andrey Rublev vs Alexander Zverev preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick
Match Details
Fixture: (2) Andrey Rublev vs (7) Alexander Zverev
Date: March 3, 2023
Tournament: Dubai Tennis Championships
Round: Semifinals
Venue: Aviation Club Tennis Centre, Dubai
Category: ATP 500
Surface: Outdoor Hardcourt
Match timing: Not before 5 pm local time, 1 pm GMT, 8 am EST, 6.30 pm IST
Prize money: $2,855,495
Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Amazon Prime Video
Andrey Rublev vs Alexander Zverev preview
Defending champion Andrey Rublev will square off against reigning Olympic champion Alexander Zverev in a blockbuster semifinal in Dubai on Friday.
Having won four titles in 2022, Rublev's start to the 2023 season has so far been underwhelming. The World No. 6 lost his first two matches of the year in the two Adelaide International tournaments in the lead-up to the Australian Open.
The Russian, however, made amends with a dazzling run to the quarterfinals of the opening Major of the season to match his career-best result at Melbourne Park.
Rublev was unfortunately unable to build on that performance and fell in the first round at Rotterdam thereafter. He made the quarterfinals at Doha last week before going one better so far in Dubai this week.
He, however, hasn't had it easy during his Dubai title defense. He came back from the brink of defeat to record a 1-6, 7-6(6), 7-6(3) victory after saving five match points against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the second round.
Since suffering a serious ankle injury at Roland Garros last year, former World No. 2 Alexander Zverev's road to recovery has been long and arduous. The German had to shut down the 2022 season following the setback and made his comeback at the United Cup in January, where he lost both his matches.
After a second-round exit from the Australian Open, the 25-year-old managed to win one match each at the Davis Cup and at Rotterdam. In Doha last week, Zverev was sent packing in three sets by 35-year-old Andy Murray in his first match.
This week in Dubai, the two-time ATP Finals winner is finally showing a semblance of the form that has taken him to the top of the game in the past. After conceding a set to Australian Open quarterfinalist Jiri Lehecka, Zverev beat Christopher O'Connell and Lorenzo Sonego in straight sets to make his first semifinal of the season.
Andrey Rublev vs Alexander Zverev head-to-head
Zverev has completely dominated this rivalry, as evident from his flawless 5-0 lead over Rublev in their head-to-head. The Russian hasn't even won a set against Zverev.
Their most recent meeting was in the 2021 Cincinnati final, in which Zverev cruised to a 6-2, 6-3 win.
Andrey Rublev vs Alexander Zverev odds
(Odds sourced from bet365)
Andrey Rublev vs Alexander Zverev prediction
Zverev has had a lot of encouraging signs this week that he will be keen to build on. He put up a commendable performance against Sonego, saving all six of the break points that he faced.
The German landed 82% of his first serves and played excellent first-strike tennis, winning 84% of his first-serve points. His clean hitting resulted in 21 winners to just eight unforced errors.
It should boost his confidence heading into the semifinal showdown with Rublev, who has emerged as one of the top stars in the past few months. That said, the Russian hasn't been at his best so far this week.
He allowed Botic van de Zandschulp to come back into the quarterfinal on Thursday before closing out the match 6-3, 7-6(3). In his opener, too, Rublev survived some tense moments.
If Rublev continues to pile on the errors, it won't bode well against a player of Zverev's caliber. The German will aggressively look to go after Rublev's second serve in order to break down his game. How long he manages to stay toe-to-toe with Rublev, however, remains to be seen.
Although Zverev has beaten Rublev several times in the past, a meeting with the World No. 6 might just have come a bit too early in his comeback. Once Zverev's precision and intensity dip, Rublev will coast to a win.
Pick: Andrey Rublev to win in three sets.