Explained: Aryna Sabalenka's chances of taking the World no. 1 spot from iga Swiatek after Indian Wells and Miami Open

Aryna Sabalenka, ranked second in the world, trails the top-ranked Iga Swiatek by over 4,000 points heading into the first mandatory WTA 1000 event of the year at Indian Wells, which started on Wednesday (March 8).

Sabalenka (6,100) is fresh off her maiden Grand Slam title at the Australian Open, where top seed Swiatek (10,585) suffered a surprise fourth-round defeat. Both players are coming into Indian Wells off a defeat in Dubai.

While Swiatek made a run to the final, her hopes of a title defense thwarted by Barbora Krejcikova, Sabalenka lost in the last eight to the eventual champion.

Swiatek won both Indian Wells and Miami last year, so she's defending a whopping 2,000 ranking points in the two events this year and cannot gain any new points. Any slip-up from the defending champion could see Sabalenka close the gap on the top-seeded Pole.

Interestingly, the Belarusian lost early last year at both Indian Wells and Miami, so she has a lot of points to gain at the two events in 2023. In other words, she could close the gap to Swiatek in a big way at the next two stops.

World number 2 #Sabalenka is going to defend only 20 points between Indian Wells and Miami against the 2000 earned the last season from #Swiatek https://t.co/R3FWl6PIUT

Let's take a look at how close Sabalenka could pull herself to Swiatek at the two events:

#1 How close in the rankings could Aryna Sabalenka get to Iga Swiatek after Indian Wells?

Iga Swiatek produced a memorable campaign at Indian Wells last year, dropping only three sets en route to her first mandatory WTA1000 title and winning her last three matches in straight sets. Meanwhile, Sabalenka stumbled against Jasmine Paolini in straight sets to beat an early retreat from the tournament.

Swiatek is widely expected to go all the way again, but in case she doesn't, Sabalenka is waiting to pounce and close the gap. Considering the most unlikely of circumstances - Swiatek losing in the opening round and Sabalenka going all the way - the Belarusian (7,090) will still trail Swiatek (9,595) by over 2,500 points.

However, Swiatek losing in the opening round and Sabalenka winning the Indian Wells title is an unlikely sequence of events, despite the Belarusian (13-1) having had a better 2023 campaign than Swiatek (12-3) so far. At best, both players are expected to go deep, though, and either could go all the way, as they are the world's top two players and have already won titles this year.

#2 Can Aryna Sabalenka overtake Iga Swiatek after Miami?

As if conquering Indian Wells last year wasn't enough, World No. 1 Swiatek produced an even better week in Miami two weeks later, winning all six of her matches in straight sets to accomplish the Sunshine Double. Swiatek is only the 11th player - male or female - to emulate the feat.

🏆 The BOSS it's Swiatek! 🏆

World No.1 on monday, Iga Swiatek wins the @MiamiOpen outclassing Naomi Osaka 6-4 6-0 to make the Sunshine Double! https://t.co/D3j27Y8sl4

Meanwhile, Sabalenka lost out in the second round yet again, losing in straight sets to Irina-Camelia Begu. As a result, she stands to gain a massive 990 points in the second mandatory WTA 1000 event of the year.

Assuming Swiatek loses in the opening round and Sabalenka wins the title, the gap between the two players will dwindle by 990 points. Even if the same thing also happens at Indian Wells the previous fortnight, Sabalenka won't pull clear of Swiatek. In that event, however, Sabalenka (8,080) will only trail Swiatek (8,605) by less than 600 points.