Explained: How Daniil Medvedev or Alexander Zverev can replace Novak Djokovic atop ATP rankings after 2022 French Open
Novak Djokovic's title defense at the 2022 French Open came to an end at the hands of his old rival Rafael Nadal, who handed him a four-set loss in the quarterfinals on Tuesday.
The Serb's exit from Paris will result in him relinquishing his grip on the World No. 1 ranking. Either Daniil Medvedev or Alexander Zverev could ascend to the top of the rankings, depending on the German's results at the French Open.
Djokovic has amassed a total of 372 weeks as the World No. 1 since clinching the top ranking for the first time in 2011. He's within touching distance of Steffi Graf's all-time record of 377 weeks as the top-ranked player, needing just five weeks to tie it and six to surpass it.
Djokovic needed to successfully defend his French Open title to continue his reign at the top of the rankings. Medvedev also needed to do the same to displace the Serb, but lost in the fourth round. However, the Russian remains in contention to take the top spot.
It will ultimately come down to Zverev, who's in the semifinals of the French Open. Depending on his results, there could be a new World No. 1 by the conclusion of Roland Garros.
Here's a look at all the scenarios leading to one of the two rising to the top of the rankings:
Alexander Zverev could replace Novak Djokovic as World No. 1 by winning French Open
Zverev needs two more victories to accomplish two of his most cherished goals - winning a Grand Slam title and becoming the World No. 1 - in one go. However, it's easier said than done, as first he'll have to defeat Rafael Nadal in the semifinals of the French Open.
With a 110-3 win loss record in Paris, Nadal is a Goliath that only two people have managed to slay so far. Djokovic bested the Spaniard twice in 2015 and 2021, while Robin Soderling was the first to defeat him way back in 2009.
Zverev has demonstrated his credentials as a fighter at the French Open. He saved a match point in his second-round win over Sebastian Baez. The German then defeated the in-form Carlos Alcaraz in the quarterfinals, marking his first victory over a top 10 player at a Grand Slam.
What a finish, what an atmosphere 🔥
The moment @AlexZverev defeated Alcaraz in the #RolandGarros quarter-finals!
https://t.co/E0PS7gKC9C
Djokovic currently has 8660 points, while Medvedev and Zverev have 7980 and 7075 respectively.
Winning the French Open would take Zverev to 9075 points when the rankings are updated on 6 June. Djokovic will gain 360 points following his run to the quarterfinals, but he will also drop 250 points he earned by winning Belgrade last year. As a result, he will have 8770 points when the rankings are refreshed. Medvedev will start the week with 8160 points, gaining 180 points for reaching the round of 16 in Paris.
A loss in the Roland Garros final would still propel Zverev to a new career-high ranking of World No. 2. He'll have 8275 points, enough to leapfrog Medvedev, but allowing Djokovic to maintain his hold at the top.
A semifinal defeat will keep Zverev at the No. 3 spot with 7795 points in next week's rankings. Djokovic will remain at the top with 8770 points and Medvedev will stay second.
Daniil Medvedev will be back as World No. 1 on 13 June Zverev fails to win French Open
Daniil Medvedev ascended to the top of the rankings for the first time in February but his reign lasted a mere three weeks. He had a few opportunities to reclaim the position, but early losses in subsequent tournaments and an injury lay-off prevented him from doing so.
It’s a huge honor to take over this spot. I’m sure everyone can understand it comes with mixed emotions that it happens this week. Thank you to my wife, team, sponsors, friends, & everyone that has helped along the way. It’s a long journey and I look forward to the years ahead https://t.co/YYGCHE4SBK
Medvedev needed to win the French Open to claim the World No. 1 ranking at the conclusion of the tournament. However, with his fourth-round loss to Marin Cilic, the matter is out of his hands.
Zverev winning the tournament would prevent Medvedev from rising to the top for the next few weeks. However, if the German fails to lift the trophy in Paris, the Russian will claim the top ranking a couple of weeks down the line.
As mentioned before, if Zverev does not win the tournament, Djokovic will remain World No. 1 for the week starting 6 June. The Serb will have 8770 points compared to Medvedev's 8160 points.
However, when last year's French Open points drop on 13 June (the tournament was held a week later in 2021), Medvedev will rise to the top once again. The Russian will drop 360 points, while Djokovic and Zverev will drop 2000 and 760 respectively.
As a result, the Russian will have 7800 points, enough to take him to the World No. 1 spot. Zverev will take up second place with either 7555 or 7075 points depending on which stage he reaches in Paris this year. Djokovic will drop down to World No. 3 with 6770 points.
With no ranking points being awarded for Wimbledon this year, it'll be difficult for Djokovic to get back on top. But the Serb has defied the odds multiple times previously and is likely to do so once again later in the year.