Explained: How Novak Djokovic can secure the year-ending No. 1 ranking at the Paris Masters
Novak Djokovic is on the cusp of history once again, as he has been for most parts of the 2021 season. This time, Djokovic is just a few wins away from securing the year-end No. 1 ranking for a record-breaking seventh time.
The Serb has been ranked No. 1 at the end of a calendar year on six previous occasions, the same number of times as Pete Sampras. As things stand, only Daniil Medvedev can prevent Novak Djokovic from breaking the record.
However, the Russian will have to make the final of the Paris Masters to keep alive his chances of doing that.
It is pertinent to note that, the Race to Turin points are going to be considered for the year-ending No. 1 ranking. The overall ATP rankings may differ from the Race due to the COVID-adjusted system in place, and so they will be disregarded while determining the year-end No. 1.
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Novak Djokovic currently leads the Race to Turin ranking charts with a whopping 8,370 points from nine tournaments. Daniil Medvedev occupies second place with 6,470 points from 15 events.
Only three ATP events remain in the calendar year - Paris Masters, Stockholm Open and the ATP Finals. That means Medvedev does not have too many opportunities to close the gap.
In fact, Djokovic could secure the year-end No. 1 trophy at Paris Bercy itself if the following results go his way:
(Note: This is assuming Medvedev does not take an unlikely wildcard into the Stockholm Open).
#1 If Novak Djokovic makes the final of the Paris Masters
Novak Djokovic will secure the year-end No. 1 trophy if he reaches the final of the Paris Masters, no matter what Daniil Medvedev does in Paris or Turin.
Making the final at Bercy would add 600 points to Djokovic's tally in the Race to Turin charts, taking his overall points tally to 8,970. Now if Medvedev does the best that is humanly possible at the Paris Masters and the ATP Finals - winning them both without dropping a single match - his tally will be bumped up by 2,500 (1000 from Paris and 1500 from Turin).
That would bring him exactly level with Novak Djokovic at 8,970 points. So if Djokovic wins even one round-robin match at Turin, he would be guaranteed to finish ahead of the Russian.
Unfortunately for Medvedev, remaining tied on points with Djokovic will not help his cause. That is because the tie-breaker in such cases is points collected from the Slams, Masters and ATP Finals, and Djokovic would be higher in that regard (assuming he reaches the final at Bercy).
The World No. 1 will have amassed 7,950 points combined from Slams, Masters 1000 events and ATP Finals, while Medvedev will only have 7,880 points from the same. Therefore, Djokovic will be awarded the year-end No. 1 trophy even if he is tied with Medvedev on total points at the end of the season.
The Russian could potentially break the tie if he takes part in the ATP 250 event at Stockholm and wins a match there. But it is highly unlikely that he will do so, especially given that he skipped the indoor events in Russia.
#2 If Novak Djokovic makes the Paris semifinal while Daniil Medvedev doesn't win the title
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Novak Djokovic can secure his seventh year-ending No. 1 trophy by making the last four at the Paris Masters, provided Daniil Medvedev doesn't win the title.
Reaching the semifinals would add 360 points to Djokovic's Race to Turin purse, taking his overall tally to 8,730 points. That would put him 2,260 points above Medvedev before accounting for the latter's points from Paris.
If the US Open champion finishes as the runner-up in Paris, he will only collect 600 points. And after that even if Medvedev goes unbeaten in Turin, the maximum points he can add to his tally is 600+1500=2100, which would fall short of the deficit of 2,260 points.
As such, if Djokovic reaches the Paris semifinals, Medvedev will necessarily have to win the title to keep alive his hopes alive of winning the year-end No. 1 trophy.
Once again, this calculation is based on the assumption that Medvedev foregoes the Stockholm Open.
#3 If Daniil Medvedev fails to make the final of the Paris Masters
Daniil Medvedev needs to make the final of the 2021 Paris Masters to keep his chances of winning the year-end No. 1 trophy alive.
The current gap between his and Novak Djokovic's points tally is 1,900. Assuming the Russian wins the ATP Finals unbeaten while Djokovic goes winless, it would reduce the deficit by 1,500 points.
That means Medvedev will have to get more than 400 points from the Paris Masters, which is only possible if you reach the final. Reaching the semifinals gives a player 360 points, which falls just short of the requirement.
As things stand, it is incredibly difficult on paper for Daniil Medvedev to win the year-end No. 1 trophy over Novak Djokovic. Not only would the Russian need to be near-flawless in Paris and Turin, but he would also need to hope that Djokovic fares poorly in both events.