Explained: Qualification scenarios for the 2021 WTA Finals with Paula Badosa & Anett Kontaveit already through to the semifinals
With only one round of round-robin matches remaining at the 2021 WTA Finals, the race to make the semifinals has heated up. However, only two of the semifinals spots are up for grabs, given that Paula Badosa and Anett Kontaveit have confirmed their places in the last four with a 100% record so far.
Iga Swiatek is the only player to be eliminated from the competition thus far, having suffered two defeats in two matches. Interestingly though, Barbora Krejcikova is still alive despite having a similar run of form at Guadalajara as Swiatek.
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Without further ado, let us look at the qualification scenarios for the 2021 WTA Finals, beginning with Group Chichen Itza:
Group Chichen Itza: Paula Badosa is through to the semifinals of the WTA Finals, with either Aryna Sabalenka or Maria Sakkari waiting to join her
Results of the group so far:
Paula Badosa def. Aryna Sabalenka 6-4, 6-0.
Maria Sakkari def. Iga Swiatek 6-2, 6-4.
Aryna Sabalenka def. Iga Swiatek 2-6, 6-2, 7-5.
Paula Badosa def. Maria Sakkari 7-6(4), 6-4.
Fixtures still to come:
Paula Badosa vs Iga Swiatek
Aryna Sabalenka vs Maria Sakkari
Qualification scenario:
With two wins out of two matches, Paula Badosa leads group Chichen Itza. The Spaniard has also confirmed her place in the top four. Her last round-robin match against Iga Swiatek is all but a dead rubber.
Not only has the 23-year-old qualified for the semifinals, but she is also guaranteed to top her group after Sabalenka ousted Swiatek on Saturday.
As such, the qualification process in Group Chichen Itza is fairly straightforward -- whoever wins the match between Aryna Sabalenka and Maria Sakkari will confirm their place in the semifinals alongside Paula Badosa.
The winner of the Sabalenka-Sakkari match will face the player who tops Group Teotihuacán, which will most probably be Anett Kontaveit.
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Group Teotihuacán: Anett Kontaveit is through to the semifinals, and any one of Krejcikova, Muguruza, & Pliskova still stand a chance
Results of the group so far:
Anett Kontaveit def. Barbora Krejcikova 6-3, 6-4.
Karolina Pliskova def. Garbine Muguruza 4-6, 6-2, 7-6 (6).
Anett Kontaveit def. Karolina Pliskova 6-4, 6-0.
Garbine Muguruza def. Barbora Krejcikova 2-6, 6-3, 6-4.
Fixtures still to come:
Barbora Krejcikova vs Karolina Pliskova
Garbine Muguruza vs Anett Kontaveit.
Qualification scenario:
The qualification process in this group is far more complex than in Group Chichen Itza. This is despite the fact that both groups have similar standings. Each group has one player with two wins out of two (Badosa and Kontaveit), two players with one win in two (Sakkari, Sabalenka, Muguruza, and Pliskova) and one player who is without a win (Swiatek, Krejcikova).
Kontaveit has confirmed her spot in the semifinals with two wins out of two matches. But unlike Badosa, she is not yet guaranteed the top spot.
Krejcikova, meanwhile, is yet to win a match but can still qualify, unlike Swiatek. For that to happen, the Roland Garros champion needs to defeat Karolina Pliskova at all costs, which is easier said than done, given she has never beaten her compatriot in either of their two previous meetings.
As it stands, if Krejcikova manages to defeat Pliskova in straight sets, she will qualify if Anett Kontaveit wins against Garbine Muguruza in straight sets. The Czech could also qualify if she defeats Pliskova in three sets (provided Kontaveit still beats the Spaniard in straight sets). But in that scenario, the percentage of games won will determine the outcome.
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However, should Pliskova beat Krejcikova and Kontaveit beat Muguruza, both winners will proceed to the semifinals regardless of the scorelines. If this happens, Anett Kontaveit will top the group while Pliskova finishes second.
Another way in which Pliskova can qualify is if she defeats Krejcikova in straight sets, while Kontaveit manages to take a set off Muguruza even if she loses.
In that case, Anett Kontaveit will top the group, while Pliskova will be second; Muguruza will be knocked out despite having won as many matches as Pliskova.
But if Pliskova drops a set to Krejcikova (even in victory), while Muguruza manages a positive result against the Estonian, the Spaniard shall join Kontaveit in the semifinals.
The following are the ways in which Garbine Muguruza can qualify:
1) If she defeats Anett Kontaveit in straight sets, while Pliskova wins against Krejcikova regardless of the scoreline.
2) If Pliskova and Muguruza both win their respective matches in three sets.
3) If Kontaveit defeats her in straights and Krejcikova defeats Pliskova in three sets, then the percentage of games won comes into play.
4) If Krejcikova defeats Pliskova (any scoreline) and Muguruza manages to take a set off Kontaveit even in defeat.
5) Muguruza can top her group if she defeats Kontaveit, and Krejcikova triumphs over Pliskova (regardless of the scorelines).
Garbine Muguruza will not qualify if she loses to Kontaveit, and Pliskova manages to defeat Krejcikova (regardless of scorelines)
The following are the ways in which Karolina Pliskova can qualify:
1) If she defeats Krejcikova and Muguruza loses to Kontaveit (regardless of the scoreline).
2) If she defeats Krejcikova in straight sets while Kontaveit manages to take a set off Muguruza even in defeat.
3) If she manages to take a set off Krejcikova in defeat while Kontaveit wins against Muguruza in straight sets. In this case, the percentage of games won will come into play.
Pliskova will not qualify if Garbine Muguruza wins against Kontaveit in straight sets.
Barbora Krejcikova will open the day's proceedings against Karolina Pliskova. This means that Muguruza will know exactly what to do when she steps on to the court against Anett Kontaveit a few hours later.