Explained: Scenarios for Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev to be World No. 1 after Rome
Novak Djokovic's World No. 1 ranking continues to be under threat from the likes of Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev. The Serb has had a stop-start year thus far due to his inability to participate in tournaments given his vaccination status.
The World No.1 did not participate in the first Major of the year Down Under and was knocked out of the Monte-Carlo Masters in his opening match. However, Djokovic did make the final of the Serbia Open and the semifinals of the Madrid Open, succumbing to Andrey Rublev and Carlos Alcaraz, respectively.
This has left the door wide open for the likes of Medvedev and Zverev to ascend to the summit of the ATP rankings. However, Zverev squandered any chance of becoming the new World No. 1 in the near future with his loss to Carlos Alcaraz in the Madrid Open final.
Zverev was beaten comprehensively by Alcaraz on Sunday. To be fair to the German, he looked good prior to the summit clash, with wins over Stefanos Tsitsipas in the semifinals and Felix Auger-Aliassime in the last eight.
Zverev could have been the new World No. 1 if he had managed to beat Alcaraz in the final and gone on to win the Rome Masters (also assuming Djokovic did not make the final in Rome).
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Novak Djokovic can hold on to the No. 1 ranking with a semi-final run in Rome
The current World No. 1 can remain the king of the mountaintop with a good outing in Rome. Djokovic only needs to make the semifinals to stay ahead of Daniil Medvedev in the rankings.
However, the Serb has his work cut out for him as he could face the likes of Felix Auger-Aliassime and Hubert Hurkacz before the semifinals.
Djokovic will kick off his campaign in Rome against Alsan Karatsev. The Russian got past Lloyd Harris in a tough three-setter to book his spot in the second round. Karatsev beat Djokovic the last time they met in the semifinals of the 2021 Serbia Open.
Three players remain in contention to be No. 1 after Rome:
Djokovic needs Rome SF (to stay ahead of Medvedev) or F (to stay ahead of Zverev if AZ wins both Madrid and Rome);
Zverev needs to win both Madrid and Rome not facing Djokovic in F;
Medvedev #1 in all other scenarios.
Daniil Medvedev could regain the No. 1 ranking even though he won't participate at the Italian Open
Daniil Medvedev is currently nursing a hernia injury that has kept him out of action for over a month. He picked up the injury in his quarter-final loss to Hubert Hurkacz in Miami.
The failure of Novak Djokovic to reach the semifinals in Rome will result in Medvedev becoming the new World No.1 following the conclusion of the tournament.
Medvedev will not compete in Rome, but has opted to take a wildcard into the Geneva Open (May 14-21) as a warm-up tournament for the 2022 Roland Garros.
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