Roger Federer, World No. 2: Careless mistake or deadly forecast?
Whether he’s playing or not, Roger Federer always makes news.
He made the tennis world hyperventilate with his torn meniscus in January. He made heads turn at this year’s Oscars in February. He made his fans cringe by pulling out of Miami in March. And now with his much awaited comeback at Monte Carlo, he has made the most endearing gaffe, at least for his fans, at the official players’ party – a gaffe which is making news everywhere.
At the party, Federer signed the No. 2 slot on the ATP rankings chart instead of signing at No. 3, his current ranking. A lot of people were amused by this gaffe, and took a potshot at the Swiss Maestro on Twitter.
Federer’s tennis may be rusty now but not his humour. He retorted with this hilarious tweet that was not just a befitting reply to the original tweet but also a veiled threat of sorts.
That's what happens when you show up late to the official player's party @andy_murray #snoozeyoulose https://t.co/3hTWj5A9qC
— Roger Federer (@rogerfederer) April 10, 2016
The ‘points’ story since January
A tearful Andy Murray left Melbourne Park in January heartbroken, but with the prospect of welcoming his first child in early February. He did become a proud dad a few days later but his tennis has gone south ever since the end of the Australian Open.
Murray led Federer by 780 ATP points before the year’s first Grand Slam. Though the Scot did well to defend his points from last year in Melbourne, Federer reduced the deficit to a mere 200 points by a better showing at this year’s Slam Down Under. After last year’s shock third round defeat to Italy’s Andreas Seppi, Federer played some vintage tennis to earn a semifinal showdown with the reigning World No. 1, Novak ‘unstoppable’ Djokovic.
A knee surgery has kept Federer out of the hunt since February. His inability to defend the results that he amassed by winning the Dubai Open and reaching the finals of Indian Wells last year saw him lose a massive 1,100 ATP ranking points.
But in the same duration, Murray has lost an even greater chunk of points. A third round loss to the 53rd-ranked Federico Delbonis at Indian Wells and a defeat at the hands of Grigor Dimitrov in the third round of the Miami Open has cost the Brit 1,130 ATP points.
In the current ATP rankings, Roger Federer is just 120 points behind Andy Murray.
Their record on clay and history at Monte Carlo
Clay has never been a strong surface for either of these players. And a large part of the blame for that can be attributed to the ‘King of Clay’ Rafael Nadal.
That said, Federer has a better record on clay when compared to Murray. Apart from winning the French Open title in 2009 the Swiss has reached the finals at Roland Garros on four occasions, all of which he lost to Nadal.
Federer also has to his credit four Master titles at the German Open that got downgraded to an ATP 500 event in 2009. He won the Madrid Masters in 2009 and in 2012, the only time when it was played on blue clay. At Monte Carlo, he reached the finals in 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2014. He lost to Nadal on the first three occasions and to compatriot Stan Wawrinka in 2014.
Murray’s clay results over the years fade in comparison. He is yet to make a final at Roland Garros and has just one Masters title on dirt – he won the Madrid Masters last year when he upended Nadal in straight sets. His best runs at Monte Carlo were in 2009 and 2011; Murray lost to Nadal at the semifinal stages on both these occasions.
The stakes are high for Murray this clay season
Murray had the best clay season of his career last year – he won his first ATP title on clay at the BMW Open in Munich and followed it up with a sensational win over Nadal to clinch the Mutua Madrid Open. But his momentum was arrested by fatigue at the Italian Open as he had played nine matches in a span of 10 days.
Murray continued his fine run on clay by reaching a third semifinal at Roland Garros. He could have probably won that match too, as fatigue seemed to be getting the better of Djokovic. But the match had to be halted due to an impending storm and continued the next day, which spelled doom for Murray’s chances.
The Scot’s maiden Davis Cup title in 2015 was also on clay. Murray has a total of 2,460 ATP points to defend from his phenomenal run on clay last year.
On the other hand, Federer has about 1,200 ATP points to defend. In 2015, he faced early exits at Monte Carlo and Madrid. An ATP 250 title at Istanbul ended his drought of titles on red clay since his maiden French Open triumph in 2009. Federer also reached the finals of the Italian Open and an 11th quarterfinal at Roland Garros.
A look at their draws for Monte Carlo Masters 2016
Federer is drawn in the same half as Djokovic, while Murray has been drawn with Nadal, Wawrinka and Berdych. Murray’s half also contains young guns like Milos Raonic, Dominic Thiem and Borna Coric, all of whom are serious contenders for the title.
Federer begins his quest tomorrow for his maiden title at Monte Carlo, against Guillermo Garcia Lopez. Though he has a 3-0 record against the Spaniard, they will meet for the first time on clay in Monaco. The match could prove tricky for Federer on two counts. One, it would be his first match after the knee surgery. And secondly, Garcia Lopez is a force to reckon with on clay.
Should he get through this initial hurdle, Federer is projected to meet Roberto Bautista Agut in the third round. After that, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Richard Gasquet could pose serious challenges to the Swiss at the latter stages of the tournament.
Though Federer has a great head-to-head record against these players, they are all exceptionally good on clay and present challenges of a different nature. A potential semifinal showdown with Djokovic looms ominously for Federer.
Murray could meet the flashy Benoit Paire in the third round and Tomas Berdych in the quarterfinals. Getting past either Nadal or Wawrinka in the semifinal would be a tall order for the Brit considering his inconsistency in the March Masters.
You snooze, you lose
Having been away from competition for more than two months, Federer could be a little rusty. However, the 17-time Grand Slam champion is well rested and has been hitting the Centre Court at Monte Carlo for the past 10 days with a lot of enthusiasm.
He is happy with the way the knee has been responding after the surgery and seems to have gained confidence from the practice sets he has played with different players like Stan Wawrinka, Alexandr Zverev and David Goffin.
For Murray meanwhile, the biggest plus is the fact that he has no points to defend at this year’s Monte Carlo Masters. The Brit has skipped this event quite often over the years and has always taken more time to prepare for the long grind of the clay season.
In the event Federer loses early and Murray makes it to the semifinal, it would give the Scot a breather for now. But in the tournaments to follow, Murray will have to produce tennis of the same calibre as that of the previous clay season if not better to keep his nose ahead of Federer in the rankings.
Getting back to World No. 2 would be an ideal scenario for Federer heading into the grass season. And you can bet that he will try everything in his power to achieve that.
#yousnoozeyoulose is not merely a hashtag. It is a message that Andy Murray should be taking very seriously.
This is easier said than done, but should Federer make it to the quarterfinals with the Scot getting knocked out early, the Swiss will overtake Murray in the ATP rankings. In the process, Federer could prove to the world that signing against World No. 2 was no blunder but a forecast.