French Open 2013: Expert picks for the men's draw
The tennis experts of Sportskeeda look ahead at the 2013 French Open by making picks for the men’s draw in four categories: dark horse, early exit, dangerous floater, and champion.
Dimitrov – Can he finally prove that he belongs with the players at the top?
1. Dark horse
Haresh Ramchandani: There isn’t really anyone outside Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer who can realistically win the title. But if I’m forced to pick someone, I’ll go with Grigor Dimitrov. ‘Baby Fed’ has been taking baby steps to the top. If he gets a favourable draw and manages to keep his love life out of the spotlight, Dimitrov could take one giant step this fortnight.
Anand Datla: I liked the chances of Stanislas Wawrinka this year till he was laid low by an injury to his right thigh. Among the rest, Grigor Dimitrov has shown that he can break through on the big stage with that victory over Novak Djokovic in Madrid. The Bulgarian had also pushed Rafael Nadal to three sets in Monte Carlo, so there’s no reason why he can’t be a dark horse here.
Roh: Tomas Berdych. In the eventuality that none of the top four manage to perform well at the French Open, all eyes will be riveted on the Czech, especially after his explosive performance against Djokovic in the Rome quarterfinals.
SivaramL: To be frank, I don’t see anyone defeating two out of the Big Three – Djokovic, Federer and Nadal – in consecutive matches, given the consistency of the top dogs, which is what a player would have to do to get his hands on the coveted Coupe des Mousquetaires! However, if there is an early upset or two with the draw clearing up, I feel Tomas Berdych can exploit the opportunity and make a statement here.
Jason Xie: Stanislas Wawrinka has always been known for his consistent one-handed backhand and his strong claycourt results. At Madrid this year, he overcame opponents such as Tsonga and Berdych, before losing to Nadal in the finals. Wawrinka has well and truly proved his ability to beat top players and pose a threat to the top four, and he can certainly make a big move at Roland Garros this year.
Sudeshna Banerjee: With Stanislas Wawrinka nursing a right thigh injury, Tomas Berdych, a former Roland Garros semifinalist, takes on the tag of the dark horse in my book. He has put up commendable performances at Madrid and Rome this season, even upsetting Novak Djokovic in the latter. Berdych should also be aided by the weather forecast predicting damp conditions in Paris.
Musab Abid: How long can the spectacular career resurgence of Tommy Haas last? This year, the 35-year-old has added Novak Djokovic to his list of impressive ‘second career’ scalps, and he’s showing no signs of slowing down just yet. One of the few players on tour with a title on every surface, Haas might just turn this year’s French Open into his glorious swansong.
2. Early exit
Haresh Ramchandani: Janko Tipsarevic is ranked No. 10 in the world, but comes into Paris with a 4-10 record since the Australian Open. After two solid seasons, the Serb seems to be sliding downhill. His previous record at the Slams doesn’t inspire much confidence either – 10-9 lifetime at the French; 11-9 at Wimbledon and the US Open and 12-9 in Melbourne. The Serb is a good bet for the early upset special.
Anand Datla: Now this is a bold thought, but could this year’s French Open be the event where Roger Federer’s streak of 35 straight quarterfinals comes to an end? Maybe not just yet; I’d go with an early exit for Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who is beginning to feel to heat of the French drought.
Can Tipsarevic arrest his slide?
Roh: Janko Tipsarevic. After his successful start to the season, Tipsarevic has been largely inconsistent, making him a potent candidate in this category.
SivaramL: Interestingly, Janko Tipsarevic is No. 29 in the Race to London this year despite his triumph (read 250 points in the kitty) in Chennai. He is my overwhelming early exit candidate, but close on his heels could be the likes of Marin Cilic and Milos Raonic.
Jason Xie: After his third consecutive Australian Open title, Novak Djokovic has been struggling to be consistent on tour. Although he proved that he has what it takes to beat Nadal with his performance in Monte Carlo, Djokovic showed his vulnerability when he lost to Dimitrov in the second round at Rome.
Sudeshna Banerjee: With Andy Murray and Juan Martin del Potro’s withdrawals, the Roland Garros seeding bump couldn’t have come at a worse time for Janko Tipsarevic as he himself confessed, “I am just really worried going into the French.” Since his title run at Chennai, the Serb has endured a miserable season, suffering 11 defeats, which includes six losses in the opening rounds alone – a huge cause of concern heading into a Slam.
Musab Abid: It’s tough to choose between Janko Tipsarevic and Nicolas Almagro; I’ll go with the latter purely because clay is supposed to be his favourite surface, so an early exit by him would be more significant. Almagro’s recent results have been terribly uninspiring, highlighted by dismal early exits in Monte Carlo, Rome and Madrid. Clay or no clay, it’s clearly not a good time to be Almagro.
3. Dangerous floater
Gulbis – The dangerous outsider
Haresh Ramchandani: Ernests Gulbis is the one name none of the seeds want drawn against themselves in the first round in Paris. The Latvian has jumped nearly 100 spots in the rankings to No. 39 in the world, winning the Memphis title as a qualifier and reaching the last 16 at Indian Wells, Barcelona and Rome – playing Nadal tough in three-set losses on two of those occasions. Gulbis is capable of beating the best in the world and losing to just about anyone on any given day – which is why he is so fascinating to watch.
Anand Datla: I wish I could say Fabio Fognini, but his recent run of form has catapulted him to 29th in the rankings, which puts him too high to qualify as a ‘floater’. So let me go with 53rd-ranked Pablo Andujar instead, who is completely at home on the red clay. He reached the semis at Madrid and could well scalp a big fish during the first week.
Roh: Marcel Granollers, seeded 31st, knows his claycourts well, and could be a pesky little opponent for a few of the higher seeds.
SivaramL: Defeating Roger in Rome in 2010 gave Ernests Gulbis the pundits’ tag of dangerous floater that year, but he failed to perform on the French clay. For that reason and for the fact that a Frenchman elsewhere is on an inspired comeback run (with a Challenger title featuring wins over Goffin and Llodra and a nice tournament thus far in Nice), I’d have to go with Gael Monfils. Who would want this former Roland Garros semifinalist and quarterfinalist (in two different years, of course) in their section of the draw? No one.
Jason Xie: David Goffin reached the 4th round of the 2012 French Open before losing to Federer in four sets. Clay is the Belgian’s best surface; perhaps we can expect some magic from him again this year.
Sudeshna Banerjee: The hugely talented 39th-ranked Ernests Gulbis said after his loss to Rafael Nadal in Rome, “I am confident going into Paris and I think I’m the toughest unseeded player.” His thundering performance against Nadal, which included a stunning 6-1 first set score, gives ample evidence why he is absolutely correct in that assessment.
Musab Abid: It’s hard to look past Ernests Gulbis here. The Latvian seems hell-bent on proving to his mother that he’s still up for being a professional tennis player, and his recent close losses to Rafael Nadal suggest that he’s less likely to lose his head on the big stage than he has been for, well, pretty much his entire career. He is still perfectly capable of flaming out in the first round, but if he doesn’t, then the top players better watch out.
4. Champion
Haresh Ramchandani: One favourite, two words – Rafael Nadal. Can we start debating about who will win Wimbledon now?
Anand Datla: Rafael Nadal Parera. Need we say more? Admittedly, Nova Djokovic, who is hungry to complete his career Slam, could have a thing or two to say here. But then, the beast from Mallorca seems eager to lacerate the lines with his forehand and spin a web around his opponents with some heavy top spin, so it’s hard to look beyond him at the moment.
The overwhelming favourite
Roh: Rafael Nadal. Six titles so far this season, five of them on clay. Does he really have any competition?
SivaramL: When he can do it in Monte Carlo, Madrid and Rome, why can’t he do it in Paris too? If you bring the ’5-sets’ thing into the equation, I would remind you of the 2012 Australian Open. Novak Djokovic‘s inner self would best know how much he desires and deserves the career Slam, and I back him to get the job done this year, even if that means defeating Federer and the man in subliminal form – Rafa ‘King of Clay’ Nadal. ‘Ajde Nole’ may well be the words replacing ‘Vamos Rafa’ this fortnight in Paris.
Jason Xie: Rafael Nadal is on a hot streak, no two ways about that. His eight consecutive finals in 2013 since his comeback are solid proof that he is as dominant as ever. The 2013 French Open is once again set to turn into Nadal-land.
Sudeshna Banerjee: With six trophies already this season and a sweep of the Barcelona, Madrid and Rome clay titles, it seems that Rafael Nadal had never been away from the Tour. He is hungry, confident and raring to go for his eighth crown at Roland Garros. What’s even more worrisome for his opponents is that Rafa was close to his flawless best in his last two matches at Rome.
Musab Abid: The only time Rafael Nadal has faced Novak Djokovic in his comeback so far, he almost got bageled. Despite his recent struggles, Djokovic still has a game tailor-made to counter the Spaniard’s vaunted strengths, and he still has a burning desire to complete his career Grand Slam. The two are scheduled to meet in the semifinals, and while that promises to be an absolute barn-burner of a match, it could also signal a changing of the guard in Paris.