French Open 2013 - Women's Draw Analysis

Maria Sharapova, Li Na, Francesca Schiavone, Svetlana Kuznetsova and Ana Ivanovic – five different women crowned champions at Roland Garros over the past five years. A far cry from the days when Justine Henin, or if one dug deeper, Monica Seles, dominated the red clay on a consistent basis, predicting the women’s draw at the second Grand Slam of the year is quite a Herculean task. The fact that Serena Williams does not feature in this list reiterates the fact that when it comes to the Parisian clay courts, you never really know till the umpire calls game, set and match.

Having said that, the top three ranked women players – Serena Williams, Maria Sharapova and Victoria Azarenka – have been more consistent than their predecessors. The other women who make the top ten includes former champion Li Na, last year’s finalist and vastly improved Italian Sara Errani and former top four players Agnieszka Radwanska and Petra Kvitova. But given how open the women’s draw usually is, there are several opportunities for upsets with a lot of dangerous players such as Sloane Stephens, Laura Robson, Roberta Vinci and Maria Kirilenko ready to break into the big league.

I was keenly awaiting the draw to see if there could be any potential blockbusters in the pipeline or if this would end up being a contest for who would face Serena Williams in the finals! Let’s dwell a little deeper into the various sections of the draw.

Top Quarter of the Draw:

This section consists of top seed Serena Williams and German 8th seed Angelique Kerber. From the American’s perspective, there is no real threat till the 4th round where she could end up facing either Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova or Roberta Vinci. The left-handed Russian Pavlyuchenkova defeated Kerber and then Carlez Suarez Navarro in April this year to win two ATP titles. Roberta Vinci too has a title to her credit this year after she defeated Petra Kvitova at the Katowice Open in Poland. An accomplished doubles player, she has started making her mark in the singles arena now. Although she has been in good form, her previous singles slam record is not that great. I believe Pavlyuchenkova’s good form combined with the fact that she is a left-handed player could cause problems for Serena, but whether or not she has the mental ability to beat the American top seed remains to be seen.

The bottom half of this quarter has a delightful first round encounter in the form of Caroline Wozniacki and Laura Robson. The Brit sensation has a wide array of shots that could cause the slowly-but-surely-falling Dane some trouble. An upset is very much possible. Apart from that, Kerber should be able to sail through to the quarters.

Quarterfinal 1: Serena Williams vs Angelique Kerber

Second Quarter of the Draw:

Perhaps the most trickiest of the lot, this quarter features – apart from the no.4 and no.5 seeds, Agnieszka Radwanska and Sara Errani – a wide range of players who could create an upset. Former French Open champion Ana Ivanovic, who is seeded 14, could end up playing Julia Goerges in the third round and if her serve holds good, she could go further in the tournament. Dangerous Russian Nadia Petrova poses a real threat in this quarter but I do not see her getting past Errani. Radwanska is a beautiful player to watch but, as always, her weakness is that she can’t cope against the hard hitting, more physical players. After a brilliant start to the year, she has been able to make it to the final stages of quite a few tournaments.

Quarterfinal 2: Agnieszka Radwanska vs Sara Errani

Third Quarter of the Draw:

Irrespective of the various permutations and combinations, this quarter eventually will belong to Li Na and Victoria Azarenka. Li Na is a former champion here and she seems to do have the skills to do well on clay. but her biggest enemy is the high number of unforced errors that she makes. That was her undoing at both the Australian Open final and the Rome Masters earlier this month. Azarenka, on the other hand, had a great start to the year, defending her Australian Open crown and then going on to beat Serena Williams for the first time in her career. Post that, she seemed to have been plagued by some sort of a knee injury, but hopefully, that will not a major hindrance to her campaign.

Quarterfinal 3: Victoria Azarenka vs Li Na

Fourth Quarter of the Draw:

Maria Sharapova must be cursing her stars because she finds herself in possibly the toughest quarter of the draw. A possible third round encounter against Tamira Paszek and fourth round match up with talented American teenager Sloane Stephens both hold great threat to the Russian second seed who has been in very good form this year. The top half of this quarter features Petra Kvitova and Sam Stosur, who are both capable of an upset if they play to their potential. If Sharapova manages to navigate her way through the tricky draw and faces either Stosur or Kvitova, she has a very good chance of going through. But that is an “if” replete with lots of possibilities.

Quarterfinal 4: Maria Sharapova vs Sam Stosur

The Semifinals

1. Serena Williams vs Sara Errani

Many believe that this tournament is Serena’s to lose. When she is playing well, the gap between her and the other players seems too big to overcome. Her serve is her most potent weapon and her experience way too vast when compared to many of the other players in the draw. In Sara Errani, she could find a tenacious opponent who knows how to play on clay. She was the losing finalist last year and that could spur her on to go the extra mile. History is not in her favour though as she has a 4-0 losing record against Serena and I think Serena will be too strong for her again. Serena Williams in two hard fought sets.

2. Maria Sharapova vs Li Na

If one were to look at the two players’ pictures without knowing their styles of play, the Russian who stands 5 inches taller than the Chinese would be everybody’s pick. But Li Na plays a very strong brand of tennis that defies her petite frame. Both are former champions here and know what it takes to win. This one is close to call and the result will depend on how Li Na manages to keep her unforced errors under control because mentally, the Russian is as strong as they come. Although Sharapova won their most recent match up in Stuttgart, Li Na got the better of Maria at the Australian Open. But these are clay courts and anything could happen. I am going to bet on Li Na here because when she plays well, her array of shots and movement are a notch better than the Russian. Li Na in three sets.

The Finals

Serena Williams vs Li Na – This has blockbuster written all over it. Whenever these two have met, the matches have been close and Li Na has managed to held her own against the power of Serena Williams’ ground strokes. Their last meeting on the hard courts of Miami went in the favour of the American but Serena’s record at Roland Garros is her worst among all the Grand Slams. If we go by momentum, then Serena will win her 2nd French Open. Li Na has to play the match of her life to lay her hands on the trophy again. Serena Williams in two sets.